100NL 3b pot vs. an unknown

Guy sat down recently, I decided to 3b AQ for value

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($100)
MP ($89.55)
CO ($142.75)
Button ($110)
Hero (SB) ($189)
BB ($163.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A
2 folds, CO calls $1, Button bets $4.50, Hero raises to $15, 2 folds, Button calls $10.50

Flop: ($32) 9, A, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $15, Button calls $15

Turn: ($62) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $30, Button raises to $60, Hero ?

Is this a snap fold because a minraise is pretty much a shove here

how can you bet for value then fold to a raise?

k with that out of the way, seems like an easy fold and I'm not sure I even bet the turn, but c/f seems kinda silly.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

how can you bet for value then fold to a raise?

k with that out of the way, seems like an easy fold and I'm not sure I even bet the turn, but c/f seems kinda silly.

I'm not betting for value, I'm betting for protection because he easily has JT/76/9T/78 so I'm making a half pot bet on each street to make his odds 4 to 1, when he has 8 outs or less (1/6 or less chance to hit on each street) and very minimal implied odds (other than JT which will take my stack if I make two pair with a queen)

also, we have no way to know if this guy is a regular, b/f is certainly the best line against a fish even if you're betting for value

You said you decided to 3bet AQ for value, but you didn't have a reason for it? ? ? Usually if I'm going to 3bet this, there's a reason I'm doing it, not just "I felt like value raising."

If you had a better read on why you are 3betting AQ preflop, you will know much easier what the correct play is here.

Originally Posted by Marshall28

You said you decided to 3bet AQ for value, but you didn't have a reason for it? ? ? Usually if I'm going to 3bet this, there's a reason I'm doing it, not just "I felt like value raising."

If you had a better read on why you are 3betting AQ preflop, you will know much easier what the correct play is here.

because I'm expecting people to call with worse

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by Marshall28

You said you decided to 3bet AQ for value, but you didn't have a reason for it? ? ? Usually if I'm going to 3bet this, there's a reason I'm doing it, not just "I felt like value raising."

If you had a better read on why you are 3betting AQ preflop, you will know much easier what the correct play is here.

because I'm expecting people to call with worse

why? If this is the case, and you are so sure of it, then villain can have AJ here and you should auto stack it.

Originally Posted by Marshall28

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by Marshall28

You said you decided to 3bet AQ for value, but you didn't have a reason for it? ? ? Usually if I'm going to 3bet this, there's a reason I'm doing it, not just "I felt like value raising."

If you had a better read on why you are 3betting AQ preflop, you will know much easier what the correct play is here.

because I'm expecting people to call with worse

why? If this is the case, and you are so sure of it, then villain can have AJ here and you should auto stack it.

I wouldn't expect him to raise it, but just call 2 streets at least

So you're bet/folding the turn then .... Seems like you might as well be bluffing w/ TP2K.

Originally Posted by Marshall28

So you're bet/folding the turn then .... Seems like you might as well be bluffing w/ TP2K.

I expected to be called by some worse hands, so it's more of a thin value bet?

thinking of this hand as thin value is fairly odd.

well it's not a bluff

You've had three people disagree w/ you for the same reason.

Rethink why you're 3betting preflop and how you're expecting your opponent to react postlfop. If you can't answer this, you didn't have enough info to 3bet this hand in this spot, or stacking is super standard.

Your betsizing perks my curiosity in this hand.

Are you guys saying that once we bet a hand for value we should never fold?

Is it bad to 3bet AQ vs an unknown here? He's gonna call with alot of dominated hands and we can get it in pretty comfortably if we hit a pair. It does suck balls to get 4-bet but I would think he's not gonna be 4b bluffing much when there's no history. Are we supposed to have a 3b range of {(JJ+?)QQ+, AK, air} preflop here? I realize we can get into some tricky spots when we know nothing of his 3b pot tendencies, but doesn't that go for flatting as well? What do we do if we flat and spike TP2K OOP in a 3-way pot, b/f b/f b/f? c/c c/c c/c? c/r b b?

Once I 3-bet preflop I would bet a little more on the flop then shove the turn for around pot.

halv i think theres tons of confusion in this thread about what iopq i exactly thinking.

AQ is a super fine 3bet here, the 3bet alone makes it profitable esp as BTN can be iso'ing the limper. Postflop is a std try get it in with the most maximising line. i dont mind the small flop bet since board is kinda dry but i wudnt mind is being bigger either so its a meh point. on turn just ship it.

Am I missing something here? We have AQ in a 3bet pot and an A high flop.... how are we NOT betting for 'value' here?

As played, the turn is too coordinated to just bet half pot. Too many hands have pairs + insiders that will peel for $40 anyhow, not to mention worse aces are possible.

Min raise is lame... folddd I guess without reads.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

how can you bet for value then fold to a raise?

isn't this pretty much the definition of bet/fold? we bet because we have value against a certain x % of his range (with x being >50) but we have the intention of folding to a raise that will contain a range of y hands that have us beat. seems pretty standard really.

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

halv i think theres tons of confusion in this thread about what iopq i exactly thinking.

AQ is a super fine 3bet here, the 3bet alone makes it profitable esp as BTN can be iso'ing the limper. Postflop is a std try get it in with the most maximising line. i dont mind the small flop bet since board is kinda dry but i wudnt mind is being bigger either so its a meh point. on turn just ship it.

Right, I guess I misread the argument.

I don't think the flop bet size is a meh point at all - the point is that with these stacks it's much better to get all in on two streets than three. If we bet 15 on flop then there's no good bet size left for the turn; if we bet 40 and then shove 40 into 140 on river he can lay down his flop+turn bluff catchers since it's not likely we are barrelling air with so little money (and this in turn means that when we _are_ bluffing we won't be able to put max pressure on him).

If we bet 30 then we have 50 into 120 on river - still somewhat crazy as a threebarrell bluff plus like griff says we lose turn value. If we bet 20 then we have 60 into 100 on river which is a decent river bet size, but we give way too good odds on turn while losing a ton of value from pair+draws. And we can't shove 90 into 60 on because it's PLHE, but even if it was NL it sucks because he can get away from alot of his worse hands to such a bet and stack us with all his better hands.

If villain is a sucker for milking bets then it's whatever, but without that read I think planning spr from flop to river is very important (and something I suck at).

Haven't thought about this in debth, is it so that when we get ourselves into a spot where we should bet/fold but the odds to call their shove is too good, we've made poor spr planning on earlier streets?

Originally Posted by bode

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

how can you bet for value then fold to a raise?

isn't this pretty much the definition of bet/fold? we bet because we have value against a certain x % of his range (with x being >50) but we have the intention of folding to a raise that will contain a range of y hands that have us beat. seems pretty standard really.

I should clarify, there was a massive argument about this in the beginner's circle where IOPQ said you cannot bet/raise for value then fold b/c that means your first bet/raise was a bluff.

We all told him he was wrong but he still persisted, so every time he posts a hand where he wants to value bet/raise then fold I immediately jump on him, b/c frankly, I have nothing better to do.

I gotta stop posting when I'm drunk, LOL.

I think the 3bet is okay, but I'd prefer to just call most of the time here to keep the fish in the pot.

Your PSR on this turn is pretty important, I think a good general rule for how to size your bets in 3bet pots is react to how draw heavy the board is. The fewer draws there are, the smaller you are able to make it.

I think your turn bet is kinda inducing a raise, and there are plenty of hands a thinking player can attempt to rep on this turn, and some other ones that picked up more equity and now are looking to semibluff. So I guess get it in, but I woulda bet a bit bigger on the turn anyways so I wouldn't feel like I needed to fold.

come on guys he has 88/99 like 95% of the time when he raises the turn

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Originally Posted by bode

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

how can you bet for value then fold to a raise?

isn't this pretty much the definition of bet/fold? we bet because we have value against a certain x % of his range (with x being >50) but we have the intention of folding to a raise that will contain a range of y hands that have us beat. seems pretty standard really.

I should clarify, there was a massive argument about this in the beginner's circle where IOPQ said you cannot bet/raise for value then fold b/c that means your first bet/raise was a bluff.

We all told him he was wrong but he still persisted, so every time he posts a hand where he wants to value bet/raise then fold I immediately jump on him, b/c frankly, I have nothing better to do.

It only applies against regs that will attempt to bluff you/semi-bluff you

so 3bing pre with the intention of folding is bad with a hand like AQ against a reg with history because a reg can easily 4b bluff and flatting against someone who can 4b bluff a lot is better if we don't intend on shoving

same thing with like AK on a drawy flop like KJ8ss if we raise the flop for value and get shoved on we have to call if we expect villain to shove with semi-bluffs on the flop
if we don't think calling a shove is profitable we should probably just call to avoid folding the best hand to a shove

it doesn't apply to a situation where we're OOP and would likely face a bet from villain if we check, then b/f could be better than c/c because we think we're ahead of villain's calling range
we basically don't have an option to check because we'll be bet into and have to decide between calling and folding

u cant fold this vs an unknown

you guys cannot be serious about this being a call, I'm not sure if you're all leveling or just bad at reading obvious nut-strength

unknowns will do this with anything, and the pot is 3bet

value 3betting an unknown when 100bb deep = not folding postflop when hitting a good hand no matter how the action goes down

Originally Posted by wufwugy

unknowns will do this with anything, and the pot is 3bet

value 3betting an unknown when 100bb deep = not folding postflop when hitting a good hand no matter how the action goes down

there's a key piece of information that I did not state
hand was played on a friday night

I don't care if it was the day after Christmas, PF+Flop+Turn=88/99

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I don't care if it was the day after Christmas, PF+Flop+Turn=88/99

I'm saying friday night = unknowns are fish = he has a set

doesnt matter when the hand was played. what matters is what is known about villain, and relative hand strength

we know nothing about villain, therefore we must break down his hand range based on how often unknowns fall into different categories including station, maniac, nit, tag, variants of each, etc; and after we generalize how often each type shows up we then discover that vs unknowns we decrease the amount of strategy we put on reads and increase the amount of strategy we put on hand strength because their range widens.

there are no reads on villain, he could be crazy and do this with a huge range or he could be a nut hugger and own us or he could be semi decent and have hands like pair + oesd or fd, but once you add that all up our hand is much stronger.

rule of thumb: against unknowns, play your hand strength regardless of how they play theirs. this is why its important to understand spr and hand strength

dramatically reducing spr pf for value against an unknown then folding post with a good hand by putting villain on a super tight range is wrong

also, minraise != nuts. i wouldn't be surprised if it was a nut hand like 50-70% of the time

I'm sorry, wat? I was looking at your signature