100NL 3rd nuts 200BB deep

guy has reggy stats, but a high vpip (25) and low pfr (13) over a small sample
he probably limps pocket pairs and suited connectors or something, I didn't see how he got his stats

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($238)
UTG ($201.55)
MP ($52)
CO ($100)
Button ($100)
SB ($66.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, 9
UTG bets $3.50, 4 folds, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 10, J, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $6, Hero raises to $15, UTG raises to $45, Hero calls $30

Turn: ($97.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $153.05 (All-In), Hero calls $153.05

River: ($403.60) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $403.60 | Rake: $3

Comments?

This is a set way more often than AK, nh

AK = 16 combos
sets = 9 combos

how do you figure

i can use my opponents actions to modify their ranges

his actions say I have the nuts

his actions say I think I have the best hand right now but am wary of getting outdrawn

Originally Posted by Parasurama

his actions say I think I have the best hand right now but am wary of getting outdrawn

yeah AK is wary of getting outdrawn by a set ldo

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by Parasurama

his actions say I think I have the best hand right now but am wary of getting outdrawn

yeah AK is wary of getting outdrawn by a set ldo

ooh missed that we were deep, that makes AK more likely but in effect we have the 2nd nuts (doubt he ever has K9) and at least one out (against AcKc) if we're behind and probably 8-9. I don't see how you can seriously think about folding. Sucks that he had AK.

I'm not thinking of folding, I'm thinking of calling three streets without raising

it's also smart to fold pre and NOT play sc OOP

cooler though.
problem is you're deep, if he has a set he has 35% equity on flop, if he has AK you are dead. not an awesome scenario

I called pre because we were 200BB deep

obv in deeper pots you have higher implied odds, but honestly it doesnt make hands like suited connectors any easier to play knowing you'll be oop the whole way.

we want to try and play hands like suited connectors, Ax suited etc hands in position because they rely heavily on fold equity

Pre could be profitble imo, especially this deep, it just isn't for everyone....like me.
Stacking of with only 2 streets of action seems standard.

What's your reasoning behind the small flop raise?

This is so unbelievably standard, you have the second nuts really since he never has K9 UTG. Just ship flop!! He can hold all sets and could hold 2 pairs.

At first I was like STD, but now I look at it, this looks rather gross.
Deep I really don't mind folding this turn, when you C/R the flop and flat would he really then shove AA/KK thinking he was good?

I doubt he has any 2 pairs here (JQss I guess) but doubt he raises J10 and Q10 from UTG. JJJ or QQQ are all possible I guess.

If you know this player, you should recognize it if he has AK. Getting it in on the flop is standard for me if I can exclude many combos of AK in his range.

no I only have like 50 hands on the guy and haven't played a big pot with him yet so I really wouldn't know, pawnalot
minsim: no idea, $19 seems more standard if not bigger because we're deep
bspahn: I have a lot of fold equity even OOP because I'm threatening to take his 200BB stack instead of a 100BB stack

what are you doing on the flop? you seriously checkraised from 6dollars to 15 dollars when you are 200bb deep and oop? i do not understand your strategies. C/R in general seems fine at this level when you can find the fold button later in the hand if necessary. At my stakes id rather just almost never c/r here but if i do have AK QQ or a bluff

btw as played id def call his dumb turn overbet as i think it makes sets a bunch more likely and we've picked up clubs. dont be results oriented

Raise to at least 22 on the flop. I'd probably raise to 26 (doesn't really have much to do with protection).

I'd also as played fourbet the flop.

Ofc call.

Wouldn't it be better to call flop, call turn, c/bomb river?

id just take isfs advice instead iopq

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

id just take isfs advice instead iopq

that's just results oriented thinking