100NL: AA OOP vs floaty reg

Villain is playing about 25/20. 3bets 5% and calls PFRs about 12%, which is relatively high for a reg. He also only folds to c-bets 40%ish so he enjoys a good float.

Like on the turn obv he's repping such a thin range. Basically 2 combos of A3s, 3(66), 3(JJ). It just seems like every time I say "lol thin range must be bluffing", 100NL regs have it because this is a fairly sophisticated bluff that you just don't see much if at all from 100NL regs. I mean I'm repping JJ+ and I don't see why he would expect me to fold any of those hands here, especially if he's paid attention at all to the fact that I hate folding in spots that I should.

So I wanna puke, fold, and take a note.



$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($100)
UTG+1 KingotK ($225.20)
CO trlyoutrages ($100)
BTN Targaryen ($131.80)
SB W2lkm2n ($168.65)
BB RhinoBluff ($91.65)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, trlyoutrages calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $5, trlyoutrages calls $5

Turn: ($17.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $11, trlyoutrages raises to $33, $22 to Hero ($81)?

Meh, I don't think I could find a fold here, but if he's a floating sob, give him some rope and c/c the turn. If I'm betting I'm usually not folding. Maybe I should though. Want to hear what others have to say.

I'd just call turn call river. He's repping such a thin range you can't really fold.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I'd just call turn call river. He's repping such a thin range you can't really fold.

Are you going on the assumption that regs who float a bunch / aren't totally straightforward are going to be making moves enough to make up for the times they have it?

Do you think it's more likely that with the thin range being repped, villain will be calling turn IP?

Originally Posted by d0zer

Do you think it's more likely that with the thin range being repped, villain will be calling turn IP?

That also.

not a great spot, but i think you just need to call turn and hit c/call any button on river. Sucks that you're utg though so he should know you're potentially strong...meh I think it's possible to fold river to a shove but the turn is definitely a call since he can have air and potentially value himself with like QQ or something.

His play looks like he is playing your hand, not his. Float the flop and bluff-raise the turn seems plausible here if you have a history of double barreling air that he knows of. He may have picked up a flush draw or has a jack, in either case you are in great shape. I see no way you can fold to the extra $22 because you are well ahead most of the time here. If you call, can you really fold to a non-jack river? My thought is that you need to reraise and commit. If he has a 3 or pocket 6s, oh well, but most of the time he won't.

Yah I'd call call... can't find a fold here. Even moreso since a lot of the hands we're afraid of will often slowplay and call turn again, and ship river.

Tstrout, first of all welcome to FTR. Glad to have some new blood in SHNL. I do disagree pretty strongly with you here. I can't see any reason to 3-bet the turn given that our hand is pretty much a bluff catcher and it's a pretty dry uncoordinated board as well so we're not too worried about ugly rivers. Our best bet is to allow him to bluff and hope that he is indeed making a move unless we know Villain to overvalue stuff like top pair if he floated AJ on the flop which we don't see happen too often at lower stakes (where ppl are generally more passive).

Since in the OP we know villain can float, there's a great chance he's bluffing here and we're ahead, so calling and letting him hang himself on the river is best no?