100nl-Gutshot nutflush draw oop

Villain is 21/14/2.9 Af. 3bet 2.4 %. Raise Cbet 36%. 398 hands.

The reason I raised this MP coz i wouldn't mind getting it in vs the short stack, and the BB is 53/13/0.6. Is this standard or spewy? What diff lines could we take in this spot?

Button ($104)
SB ($7)
BB ($181.55)
UTG ($269.80)
Hero (MP) ($98.95)
CO ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP with ,
1 fold, Hero bets $3.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $4, Button raises $11, Hero raises $20, Button raises $54, Hero raises $71.45 (All-In), Button calls $30.45


Any insight or advice would be appreciated.

I don't like the small flop 3bet, you're in an awful spot on the turn if he calls.
I would just make a big committing 3bet.

the reason its okay to go all in with flush draws when you have <50% equity because you usually have good FE on your big 3bet/shove. by 3betting so small you take away this advantage

now you give him the chance to decide whther the pot goes 4bets so he will only do it with sets/flushes and maybe like kckx or something. so ya, u turn an easy standard +EV spot into a quite likely -EV spot

Preflop is fine imo, I'm opening hands like this all day with that guy in the blinds. You've got a pretty bad ass draw here, I'm defo happy to make a more commiting 3 bet and get it in. We have very little of his range in terribad shape though so need all the FE we can get to make this better.

Yep I definitely hear you about the small 3b. The bet was actually raised 20, which made it 24, but it still put me in an awkward spot. He raised 54, which made it 65 and i had zero Fold equity by that time. When i was making that raise I thought back to the post that JL put out last week called 'Bet Sizing Question". It was a similar spot, and the majority of the replies were to 3b on the smaller side.

Bet Sizing Question Thread
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Villain is running 22/19/3 with 3bet of 6% and a raise cbet of 14% over 500 hands.
We have a Tagg or slightly nitty image.

$100NL
100bb stacks
Hero is dealt As 5s
4 folds, Hero (SB) raises to $4, BB calls

Flop: 2s 4s Kd ($8)
Hero bets $6, BB raises $20, Hero raises to what?


Ravageur said: I'd make it about 43ish with most of my 3-betting range. I think with my more vulnerable hands i'd make it a tiny bit bigger but ppl aren't going to pick up on that generally. I'd definitely make it this size with my bluffs, because any bigger seems to be a big mistake.

Alexos said:I like a v.small raise.
I'd raise bigger with made hands but who cares right.

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Now in that example the raise size was to twenty, which made 43 doable. In my spot, the raise was to 11, and even if it made like 28, instead of 24, i would still be in the same spot when he 4bets.

I'm sure I'm missing or misunderstanding something here. Any help would be great.

As5s on 2s4sKd is like 97times stronger than Ac10x on 2c3c5c in this spot. It isn't comparable even if the villain is identical. That's what you are missing.

Look at the "why?" of the bet sizing instead of trying to copy the sizing.

I like check raising the flop instead of leading out. If your opponent checks behind, you get a free card to hit the nuts. If he bets, a check-raise is quite believable on this board. You are probably up against a set here, or made flush and need help. Most of the time when you get raised on the flop after having the initiative preflop and c-betting, you are in bad shape. The button call preflop indicates a speculative hand. He's not going broke with it unless he hits it hard but not quite hard enough. Fold Equity is almost always overestimated in my opinion because we just think our power will make our opponents crumble and people find themselves all in with far the worst of it way too often. If he has the flush already, you have only 7 outs (maybe), if he has a set, he has redraws to a boat in case you get lucky. Either way you're getting your money in bad.

I understand that As5s is stronger on that board, as compared to the hand in this thread, however from an equity standpoint, we shouldn't be that far off.

As far as copying the sizing goes, i was merely using it as a reference point from credible sources, in a similar but not the same situation.

My main concern however is what sort of sizing i should have used if am going bet/3b/shove in this situation, or if there are any other lines we could use other than this one?

In this situation since we are against a stronger and wider value range, wouldn't there be less fold equity. If so, a larger 3b would be redundant right?

Sorry for the long post, been thinking about this spot all day.

Board: 5c 3c 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.946% 37.18% 00.77% 17299 357.50 { AcTs }
Hand 1: 62.054% 61.29% 00.77% 28516 357.50 { QQ-JJ, 55, 4c4d, 4c4h, 33-22, A4s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 64s, 53s }

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Board: 2s 4s Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.797% 43.80% 00.00% 7371 0.00 { As5s }
Hand 1: 56.203% 56.20% 00.00% 9459 0.00 { KK, 44, 22, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, K4s, QsJs, 6s3s }