100NL Mission impossible: folding a boat

Villain is unknown, but didn't play too many hands over the last 12
I can't put him on anything but 33

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($100.60)
BB ($162.90)
Hero (UTG) ($110.60)
MP ($167.25)
Button ($180.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 2, 2
Hero bets $4, MP calls $4, 3 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 2, 3, A (2 players)
Hero bets $5, MP calls $5

Turn: ($19.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $15, MP calls $15

River: ($49.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $45, MP raises to $143.25 (All-In), Hero ???

Coooooooome on dude! For real?

You have a boat, getting 4.5:1, on a board where villain could be shoving a straight.

Really? Sucks he had A5, reloadddd.

I would definitely like to see a bigger bet on the flop.

You only have 12 hands on him though, we just don't know enough about him that he can't be shoving 5x or a 4 for value.

If I perceive villain as a reasonable player at all, I could throw this away and be comfortable with it.

Originally Posted by Marshall28

If I perceive villain as a reasonable player at all, I could throw this away and be comfortable with it.

look at stacksss... it's only $40 more....

If hero had villain covered.. that's a different matter.

if I knew the guy was a reg there is no way I would have called river because I beat exactly 0 hands a reg would shove
a reg would never shove a straight for value, only as a bluff

It depends what the reg puts you on. You're opening UTG, and triple bareling on this board. He probably puts you on AK/AQ as much as he does A's full, so a shove with 4x is not impossible. Especially since he thinks you're pot committed.

The only hand that makes sense is A5, and there are only two combos of that A5cc and A5hh. He might have 3's full sometimes as well, but can at least discount half of those given flop flat. He has 1 possible 55 hands, so maybe we're losing to a total of 5 hand combinations.

He has 6 possible 44 hands, and 3 A4s hands. Lets discount and say two possible 45 and one 34ss, so thats 12 possible 4x combos.
Can potentially even turn some Ax hand into a spazz bluff, as 0.5 combo.

We need to be right 18% of the time on river. Even if he shoves 1 hand combinations of 4x hands plus his 0.5 hand combo bluffs, we should call this river (beat 1.5 combos, lose to 5 combos = 23%).

it's impossible for him to shove 4x because I never call with AK/AQ ever, I have AA, 22, 33, 55, A5 all in my range and he would flat his 4x if he's at all decent

I agree that river is a call due to pot odds and I agree flop should be bigger

100nl plays retardedly nitty postflop compared to 400+

Your river betsizing surely polarizes your range on the river, turning his strong hands, which he might raise for value in the case of you betting smaller (maybe 4x etc) into bluff catchers. Which in turn polarizes his range. It really sucks to fold here, with the odds you're getting, if you click call it's with a resigned "I know i'm beat, but I can't fold this hand for this price".