100nl - NFD OOP facing flop raise.

Villain is 23/17/3.3 with a 5% 3bet over 303 hands. Raise cbet of 0% (9hands). His WTSD is only 19%
I don't have any specific reads on him.

He would view me as a tagg reg with something like 23/18 stats and a cbet of 65-70%.

From the stats that we do have on villain, it seems like he doesn't get out of line too often. Does that mean re-raising the flop would be out of the question?

As played I guess we just c/f turn...seems so weak.


$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($107.60)
CO ($98.50)
BTN ($30)
SB ($109.70)
BB ($48)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO raises to $16, Hero calls $11

Turn: ($39.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $29.50, $29.5 to Hero ($88.6)?

Meh.

I would probably just 3bet the flop. Quite a few draws that we dominate here.

on this board vs anybody even remotely aggro getting it in is more +ev than flatting since we crush KTdd T8dd JTdd 56dd KJdd and QQ is unlikely

Originally Posted by Genitruc

on this board vs anybody even remotely aggro getting it in is more +ev than flatting since we crush KTdd T8dd JTdd 56dd KJdd and QQ is unlikely

Okay so getting it in is more +ev than flatting, but is getting it in +ev?

If villain is more on the passive side, then we don't have very much fold equity, and the majority of the time we get all in we are against a range of sets, 2 pair, and combo draws.

Board: 7d Qc 9d

Hand 0: 38.288% 38.29% 00.00% 7202 0.00 { Ad2d }
Hand 1: 61.712% 61.71% 00.00% 11608 0.00 { QdQh, QhQs, 99, 77, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Td8d, 97s, 8d6d }

Am I missing any hands, or are there any hands that shouldn't be in there?
I gave him a couple combos of QQ. I guess if QQ is in his range then so is AA/KK, but I am not sure if he raises those on this flop. Either way adding AA/KK to his range doesn't change our equity much.

We are going to need a decent amount of fold equity for it to be +ev to re-raise/get it in on this flop.

take out QQ and see what your equity becomes (even 5% 3bettors will almost always have QQ in their 3 bet range)

vs a tight guy s who s never bluffing, folding is indeed best

do tag-ish regs really flat hands like Q7s, Q9s or 97s much

i think especially against UTG raise i would think these hands are almost never in villains range.

maybe i'm not flatting enough hands IP against openers but from my experience calling hands like these and even better ones seems to lead to losing $ since we dont have any initiative...

Originally Posted by bspahn

do tag-ish regs really flat hands like Q7s, Q9s or 97s much

i think especially against UTG raise i would think these hands are almost never in villains range.

maybe i'm not flatting enough hands IP against openers but from my experience calling hands like these and even better ones seems to lead to losing $ since we dont have any initiative...

I didn't put those hands in his range except for 97s. 97s is possible because there is a fish in the BB. Plus this guy is 23/17 which means he is calling more opens than the typical tagg.

Originally Posted by Genitruc

take out QQ and see what your equity becomes (even 5% 3bettors will almost always have QQ in their 3 bet range)

39.893%

i m just guessing but with 40% he has to fold like 12 or 15% of the time for shoving to turn a profit?