100NL pot control vs idiot (edited ... fixed)

I don't have enough hands to get any type of read on villain, plus I'm 15 tabling so just trying to stick to the standard plays. Getting c/r on this flop I figure to be a bluff a lot of the time, club draw, a weaker A possibly, or obv a possible set/2pr, so I figure flat is most optimal.

On turn its like .. ok i know he is either trying to goat me into raising him or trying to get a cheap river card (which I definitely realize he could have just checked behind to get which is probably what confused me and made me flat the bet in the first place). Problem is if I raise I'm committing myself to the hand, do I necessarily want to do that? I'm not really sure. So on river now what do I beat looking at this board ... a really weak ace ... a lot of bluffs got there w/ weird 2 pr combos or straight possibilities and backdoor hearts got there. Big problem for me here is that when he c/r flop then makes that tiny bet on the turn it just SCREAMS clubs to me, and when he makes a full pot sized bet it makes he think he doesn't want a call. Anybody read this differently ?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($39.20)
MP ($133.55)
Button ($96.50)
SB ($30.20)
Hero ($347.45)

Preflop: Hero is BB with , .
1 fold, MP calls $1, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero raises to $5, MP calls $4, SB folds.

Flop: ($11) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $7, MP raises to $21, Hero calls $14.

Turn: ($53) (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $7, Hero calls $7.

River: ($67) (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $70

Final Pot: $207

it screams draw with the flop raise for a free card then the tiny turn "block" bet.

the river bet blows because now you have to sort out if its BS or if he backed into a hand on this coordinated board.
No read i think i muck it.

All we beat here is a bluff, right?
I think we have to muck here.

cry fold

The Check/call on the turn is not pot control.

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

The Check/call on the turn is not pot control.

lol

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

The Check/call on the turn is not pot control.

ignoring the actual flop play ... what would you say it is in your estimation, jym?

Originally Posted by Marshall28

Getting c/r on this flop I figure to be a bluff a lot of the time, club draw, a weaker A possibly, or obv a possible set/2pr, so I figure flat is most optimal.

Tell me how Check calling either narrows his range from this or controls the pot enough for you to call? Did he just bluff that river or miss the value on the turn?

You completely missed any opportunity to find out anything about this hand on the turn and anything you do now after he overbets the river is a guess and nothing more. You have failed to control the pot by showing weakness and have given him every reason to think you have nothing more than TP. You would never call the turn with a set or two pair on this board, and have turned you hand face up.

I think you have to bet/fold this turn. He's either calling with his draws or raising again with his sets/2 pr to protect against the flush himself. Not to mention the fact that your playing AJo from the BB against an unknown is bad enough and this shows why.

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

Originally Posted by Marshall28

Getting c/r on this flop I figure to be a bluff a lot of the time, club draw, a weaker A possibly, or obv a possible set/2pr, so I figure flat is most optimal.

Tell me how Check calling either narrows his range from this or controls the pot enough for you to call? Did he just bluff that river or miss the value on the turn?

You completely missed any opportunity to find out anything about this hand on the turn and anything you do now after he overbets the river is a guess and nothing more. You have failed to control the pot by showing weakness and have given him every reason to think you have nothing more than TP. You would never call the turn with a set or two pair on this board, and have turned you hand face up.

I think you have to bet/fold this turn. He's either calling with his draws or raising again with his sets/2 pr to protect against the flush himself. Not to mention the fact that your playing AJo from the BB against an unknown is bad enough and this shows why.

nice post. well, everything except the playing AJ from the BB comment, but your still a nit, so thats ok.

yeah agree jym, i think u may be right for the most part, but if im calling the flop for pot control, leading the turn makes about zero sense and allows me to get bluffed off the best hand the times he decides to semi bluff his draw. also as i stated in my OP if i raise the turn, im basically committing myself, so i kinda dont see how i have much of a choice.

and playing AJ in that spot is $$$$

Most $100NL players are not able to bluff /semi bluff raise the turn. Most have only learned pre and postflop skills. i think any turn raise means your TP/2pr is beat most times. Your facing a set or a FD here all day. Bet /fold is the only way to play this hand without guessing.

I have no problems with AJo in the BB. But as you stated, you have no reads and not enough hands while 15 tabling. That to me means it's not $$$$ in any way. In fact I would love to see any body's PT stats on AJo in the BB running BE let alone +PTBB at $200NL and under over a significant sample.

not a big sample size, but:

66k hands for the year so far.
AJo in the BB 108 times for +$89.92. win % = 55.56%, 1.10 ptbb/hand, 60.19VPIP, 52.78 PFR.

eh AJ is profitable there preflop at practically all limits.

AJ= nuts vs unknown open limperl

Yea, actually I misspoke on the AJo. I am showing a profit as well. I think I do play it a little different vs. unknown though.