100NL - Set, nit, deep

Our friend runs 12/7/1.8 over a decent sample. Station that I am I called down, tho really couldnt figure out a hand beside AA/JJ he´d go for deep stacks with. I´ve been active and he didnt 3bet me once oop.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($100.00)
Hero ($182.70)
CO ($178.20)
BTN ($96.00)
SB ($203.36)
BB ($188.40)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 6 players) Hero is UTG 1
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BTN calls $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3

Flop: ($12.5, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, 1 fold, BB raises to $19, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($50.5, 2 players)
BB bets $35, Hero calls $35

River: ($120.5, 2 players)
BB bets $100, Hero calls $100

Looks fine with your reads, but I probs get this all in anyway.

this is soo bad, raise turn and shove river

He can easily have AQ+ and like AJ a lot...agreed with alexos, raise turn and shove river.

3 combos of JJ, 2 combos of AJs.....

rly?

Call-me raise on the flop, value bet the turn and a 100bb river bet.

Think he ever starts the hand out in pot control mode then realizes the mess he got himself into on the river?

Ok, so figure his range on the flop:
AK (I think he flats this)
AQ (heavily discounted)
AJs
AJ (discount)
JJ (certainly flats this)
a5 hearts

Turn does nothing to define his hand.
Would he bet AK like that on the end? Did he get silly with AK TPTK and/or realise the pot got bigger than he thought?

Sick thought, do we get away from this on the flop?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.310% 44.31% 00.00% 2632 0.00 { 5d5s }
Hand 1: 55.690% 55.69% 00.00% 3308 0.00 { JJ, AJs, A5s }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.687% 78.69% 00.00% 14022 0.00 { 5d5s }
Hand 1: 21.313% 21.31% 00.00% 3798 0.00 { JJ, AKs, AJs, A5s, AKo }

Originally Posted by nutsinho

3 combos of JJ, 2 combos of AJs.....

Are you saying his whole range consists of this?

kinda gross since we dont know just how nitty he is. havent u seen any hands from him or have postflop stats on him?

Originally Posted by kmind

Originally Posted by nutsinho

3 combos of JJ, 2 combos of AJs.....

Are you saying his whole range consists of this?

given the information that we have, this can't be a bad approximation for the bulk of his range. he's probably not a robot so he could somehow be bluffing here or overplaying something weird, which makes this a calldown. I think folks saying to raise here arent really thinking about it enough though. 12/10 isnt gonna show up with AJo much here imo. Those stats suggest he's almost surely 3betting or folding this hand, as most of his oop calling range will be like 44-JJ. This means there are probably only 2 combos total that are bet-calling or bet/shoving the turn or river.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

Originally Posted by kmind

Originally Posted by nutsinho

3 combos of JJ, 2 combos of AJs.....

Are you saying his whole range consists of this?

given the information that we have, this can't be a bad approximation for the bulk of his range. he's probably not a robot so he could somehow be bluffing here or overplaying something weird, which makes this a calldown. I think folks saying to raise here arent really thinking about it enough though. 12/10 isnt gonna show up with AJo much here imo. Those stats suggest he's almost surely 3betting or folding this hand, as most of his oop calling range will be like 44-JJ. This means there are probably only 2 combos total that are bet-calling or bet/shoving the turn or river.

i agree with this, except the part about his stats suggesting that he folds/3bets AJ. its somewhat trivial, but i think his stats (12/7 btw)suggest that he is more likely to be calling with AJ. a lot of players like this just never ever 3 bet, especially the passive ones, and tbh, i wouldnt be surprised if he just flatted AA here.

however, i also agree with your previous post that his range is very heavily weighted towards AJ and JJ. my jaw would drop if this were some sort of bizarre bruff.

Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

kinda gross since we dont know just how nitty he is. havent u seen any hands from him or have postflop stats on him?

he´s a true nit, never got out of line and usually pot controls TPs. I doubt he´s ever bluffing here, he may overplay 2pr

Originally Posted by XTR1000

Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

kinda gross since we dont know just how nitty he is. havent u seen any hands from him or have postflop stats on him?

he´s a true nit, never got out of line and usually pot controls TPs. I doubt he´s ever bluffing here, he may overplay 2pr

If you put him on a range of JJ/AJs, then you have 40% equity on the river when you need only 31% to call. That makes the river a pretty easy CALL, but if you put him on the same range on the turn, then I guess you should FOLD there.

Adding AA with a 33% weight to his range makes your equity drop enough to fold the river.

lets not forget also that our hand is SEVERELY under repped. he looks like he has Ax.

Another sick thought, could we have saved money by raising the turn to "see where we're at"? *vommit*

Originally Posted by will641

lets not forget also that our hand is SEVERELY under repped. he looks like he has Ax.

Nits think on level 1...

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Originally Posted by will641

lets not forget also that our hand is SEVERELY under repped. he looks like he has Ax.

Nits think on level 1...

Yeah, is range here is very narrow which is why hand readers avoid paying him off. That said, is it narrow enough or do we pretty much have to call down here.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Another sick thought, could we have saved money by raising the turn to "see where we're at"? *vommit*

I think these nits are usually going with their hand after they c/r flop and lead turn on a dry board. We have all the info we will get out of him and if we put him on exactly AJs/JJ then the turn is an easy fold.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

We have all the info we will get out of him and if we put him on exactly AJs/JJ then the turn is an easy fold.

Dumping it on the flop too exploitable?

whats going on here?

am i a huge station or just not used to nits like these.... tbh i never play against 12/7s, ill remember to b/f once i hit my set on the flop

Originally Posted by Fnord

Another sick thought, could we have saved money by raising the turn to "see where we're at"? *vommit*

If we're going down that road, why not re-raise flop to see where we're at (it's cheaper anyhow) and fold to the kaboom?

Originally Posted by Alexos

whats going on here?

lol at first I thought the same thing, and was like zomg shove/raise turn.

But thinking about it now, this guy IS a nit. (OP- how many hands is your sample size on this guy?)

So I do mostly agree that his range is pretty much mostly AJ and JJ, and a bit more often A5 than he shows up with AA.

Just as an aside, if we're villain here and we play AK like this on flop and turn. shouldn't we be betting river as well, given that we weren't raised on any earlier streets and we'd expect AJ/JJ/AA to put in a raise on the turn?

Originally Posted by Alexos

am i a huge station or just not used to nits like these....

Nits like these don't check-raise draws ever, or hands worse than 2 pair more than once in a blue moon, and they generally don't call raises OOP with AJ. That's the concern. Bottom set loses some value given the guy and the action.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by pocketfours

We have all the info we will get out of him and if we put him on exactly AJs/JJ then the turn is an easy fold.

Dumping it on the flop too exploitable?

Nope, it would be the fold of the decade.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Originally Posted by Alexos

am i a huge station or just not used to nits like these....

Nits like these don't check-raise draws ever, or hands worse than 2 pair more than once in a blue moon, and they generally don't call raises OOP with AJ. That's the concern. Bottom set loses some value given the guy and the action.

Hands strength is relative. Generally laying down a big hand is really silly, but there is enough data here to seriously consider it.

For what it's worth, I've laid down a set before the river maybe 3 or 4 times ever. Every time I was shown a better hand. Not something I do lightly.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Originally Posted by Fnord

Dumping it on the flop too exploitable?

Nope, it would be the fold of the decade.

You should play live poker with me sometime

get a room guys imo

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by pocketfours

We have all the info we will get out of him and if we put him on exactly AJs/JJ then the turn is an easy fold.

Dumping it on the flop too exploitable?

Nope, it would be the fold of the decade.

Seriously, is 12/7 nitty enough to drop this on the flop?

We can't put any opponent squarely on a single level of thought. If XTR is coming off as a bit of a lagg-tard (and over a 'decent sample', it's the crazy moves that stick out), AJ is in his range and AK isn't out.

For what it's worth, I like the calldown. My point is that his hand is really defined by the flop (and river) action. If we're going to make a marginally bad fold to avoid playing a big pot against a total nit, the flop is the place to dump this.

Originally Posted by dev

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by pocketfours

We have all the info we will get out of him and if we put him on exactly AJs/JJ then the turn is an easy fold.

Dumping it on the flop too exploitable?

Nope, it would be the fold of the decade.

Seriously, is 12/7 nitty enough to drop this on the flop?

We can't put any opponent squarely on a single level of thought. If XTR is coming off as a bit of a lagg-tard (and over a 'decent sample', it's the crazy moves that stick out), AJ is in his range and AK isn't out.

a true nit will likely try to see a cheap showdown with AK.

Originally Posted by griffey24

(OP- how many hands is your sample size on this guy?)

Sample at 6max is 3k or so and I´ve played 40k+ with him on 100NL full ring where he ran 9/6, thats where my read comes from. My image vs him is like semi laggy, I´ve shown down some wild moves vs him, but thats 2 months ago. Shorthanded I´m straight 20/18, picking on tighties like him whenever I can.

Your image means dick to him. He's playing 7 other tables.

Originally Posted by XTR1000

Originally Posted by griffey24

(OP- how many hands is your sample size on this guy?)

Sample at 6max is 3k or so and I´ve played 40k+ with him on 100NL full ring where he ran 9/6, thats where my read comes from. My image vs him is like semi laggy, I´ve shown down some wild moves vs him, but thats 2 months ago. Shorthanded I´m straight 20/18, picking on tighties like him whenever I can.

I used to have similar stats (even the full ring stats were similar) back in my nitty days. This guy has a set a LOT here, probably 80% of the time and that might be on the low side of things.

Originally Posted by UG

back in my nitty days.

Like yesterday?

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by UG

back in my nitty days.

Like yesterday?

I might still be considered a nit but I'm nowhere close to what I used to be.

Maybe I should have said "my super-retarded-on-steroids-where-I-played-nothing-but-the-nuts nitty days" instead, because now I at least play the second nuts sometimes.

But only if I have a read that he doesn't have me beat.



Sorry to hijack.....results?

Nit/No nit once any non-donk player overcalls a raise from a non-tag player oop I would almost never give him credit for a premium hand until ive seen him show one down so Im sticking the money in on the flop or calling down in pos on a safe board as you did (turn raise is too obv on this board texture imo.)

Looks like AJ/JJ but oddly enough I think 99/A9s is also in his range.

god this fold set threads tilt me.

you could NEVER fold a set and be a winner at NL1k
your focusing on the wrong leaks agonizing over hands like this.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Your image means dick to him. He's playing 7 other tables.

actually its pretty easy for me to keep up with image on 7 tables, i need at least 10 to really get confused.

also this is madness id shove river every time. if he has JJ oh well. If this flop was more like 8 5 A maybe you can think about slowing down, but on this flop its silly. If you get set/set'd just move on to the next hand. I have folded sets on the flop for 200bb but it was made very obvious by 2 others going all in in a very obvious way on a dry flop. But this we don't have enough clues.

Originally Posted by mixchange

Originally Posted by Fnord

Your image means dick to him. He's playing 7 other tables.

actually its pretty easy for me to keep up with image on 7 tables, i need at least 10 to really get confused.

also this is madness id shove river every time. if he has JJ oh well. If this flop was more like 8 5 A maybe you can think about slowing down, but on this flop its silly. If you get set/set'd just move on to the next hand. I have folded sets on the flop for 200bb but it was made very obvious by 2 others going all in in a very obvious way on a dry flop. But this we don't have enough clues.

i think more important than if hes multi tabling, is that hes a nit and probably only paying attention to his own hand.

This isnt madness...THIS IS SPARTA!...old yet? and onto the hand i can only put him on aj or jj as 12/7 like himself never plays ak this way and would likely slow down with a5 as hed be slightly worried he was beat and maybe only bet something like 50 0n the river or possibly even check call. Looking at his bet sizing id also be worried i was beat here but not enough to ever lay this down, id probably just go into check call mode like yourself or possibly check raise turn.

Originally Posted by tarath

god this fold set threads tilt me.

you could NEVER fold a set and be a winner at NL1k
your focusing on the wrong leaks agonizing over hands like this.

At the end of the day, I kinda agree with this.

You may be ahead of AJ or A5, you may be behind AA/JJ. If you win, he got coolered, and if he wins you got coolered. It's a wash in the long run.

I'd imagine this turn decision is pretty neutral EV against a nit.

What did the nit have anyway?

To make that clear, I didnt consider folding anywhere in this hand. Question is, if there is value in raising turn or shoving river. Results will follow.

Hero has $24 left. Does it really matter? Just get it in. All hands we beat call so it's the same as just calling basically since pot odds have him never folding to $24 extra

Originally Posted by mixchange

Hero has $24 left. Does it really matter? Just get it in. All hands we beat call so it's the same as just calling basically since pot odds have him never folding to $24 extra

well if we think we have the best hand say 45% of the time, pot odds dictate a call on the river, but a raise would be bad because we lose that extra $24 more than we win it.

Originally Posted by mixchange

Hero has $24 left. Does it really matter? Just get it in. All hands we beat call so it's the same as just calling basically since pot odds have him never folding to $24 extra

this is really not the issue.

Originally Posted by tarath

god this fold set threads tilt me.

you could NEVER fold a set and be a winner at NL1k
your focusing on the wrong leaks agonizing over hands like this.

I agree with the last sentence. However, I think it's part of a winning thought process to put someone on a range of hands and make the approprate play. Even if that means folding a set, aces, etc. or shoving one pair.

Originally Posted by PapalRage

Originally Posted by mixchange

Hero has $24 left. Does it really matter? Just get it in. All hands we beat call so it's the same as just calling basically since pot odds have him never folding to $24 extra

well if we think we have the best hand say 45% of the time, pot odds dictate a call on the river, but a raise would be bad because we lose that extra $24 more than we win it.

I think we're ahead more than 50%

will, i know the river shove is not the issue. its just a side comment. it would be nice if you said what you thought the issue was though, because I'm not even sure you even know what I think is important here etc.