100NL thin-ish value vs. fish

Fish is 83/44 over 20 hands but it's clear he's terrible
I check flop because I want him to tell me whether I should play my hand for stacks, so when he checks it back I have no reason to hold back because I figure he has ace high or a pocket pair or 4x or 2x
the 2 on the river actually helped his range, but I think I can get a call from worse

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($119.35)
UTG ($53.40)
MP ($134.95)
CO ($108.65)
Button ($52.65)
SB ($63)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, 10
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Button bets $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $9, 1 fold, Button calls $7

Flop: ($19.50) 2, 4, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($19.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $9, Button calls $9

River: ($37.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $37.50

Thoughts?

a lot of hands that are calling turn are instantly folding to any river bet. (Ax, FD etc)

you want to get a call from 4x or 3x and sometimes a hand like 55/66 ? will he call pot with these?

why not let him bluff this river by checking?

Originally Posted by bspahn

a lot of hands that are calling turn are instantly folding to any river bet. (Ax, FD etc)

you want to get a call from 4x or 3x and sometimes a hand like 55/66 ? will he call pot with these?

why not let him bluff this river by checking?

he's going to check back his Ax, 4x, 3x, 55+ and bet 2x
he probably has no hand he would bluff with on the river because he feels he has showdown value

Why would you bet full pot? I think you outplayed yourself a bit here.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Why would you bet full pot? I think you outplayed yourself a bit here.

because if I shove my entire stack in I get more folds and I'm not typing 34.65

its ok. Betting like 24 is considerably better, and I think bf flop is probably optimal. I don't see how checking allows you to play the hand in such a way that "lets you know whether you should play your hand for stacks." I think if that were your goal then betting the flop to "see where you were at" would be correct, since you can easily fold to a raise and just as easily c/f the turn when called. His range will still be wide enough on the river to allow for a profitable vb, so I don't see a clear advantage to the c/c line.

I think fish are pretty easy to read based on their bet sizing
but if I bet he's going to call with like his entire range

I guess I could gaybet/fold three streets, like 1/3 psb on every street

is there a reason why you are averse to a bet check bet line?

Originally Posted by Renton

is there a reason why you are averse to a bet check bet line?

I could do that too, but my original plan was to call one street if he bets into me and c/f to further aggression because it would be pretty obvious I'm crushed if he bet flop and shoved turn since his value range is really strong
obviously if I bet flop and he ships turn I should fold by that logic
but it feels like a bluff a fish could make because it's like "guy checks, I shove as a bluff"

now a planned multiple street bluff is something fish don't do often or well


of course all of this logic is based on the assumption that he's not valuebetting thinly, that he can't plan to bluff me on two streets, etc.
but given the fact that he's minraising preflop and playing almost every hand I think it might be half-way reasonable to assume he sucks at poker

I'm not trying to pick on you. My first instinct is that b/f flop c/f turn bet river is the correct line. I could definitely be convinced that a line involving checking the flop could be better, I just wasn't satisfied with your reasons of taking that line.

In my opinion, the only clear advantage a flop check gives is in allowing him to bet total air that would fold to a bet. This advantage is slightly to significantly countered by the fact that he's such a donk he might call flop anyway with those hands if you bet, and by the fact that he might decide to shove turn (btw, I don't think that would be very elaborate or planned at all, he'd just do it because fuck it and he'd have a good reason... you checked.) I also wouldn't put it past him to bet like <1/3 pot every street which puts in you in a spot plagued with reverse implied odds, plus ev for you as it may be.

On the other hand if you bet flop, you'll rep a big hand. Not that he'll care he's still calling any pair or ace high or gutshot, but the difference this time is that he'll probably be happy to check behind the turn without top pair plus, and be somewhat less likely to bluff turn because you 3bet preflop and bet the flop, you could have AA. And as I said, you'll still be in a decent position to bet river for value, although granted it will be somewhat less profitable of a value bet than the river as played.

well if I bet flop and check turn and he shoves, then yeah I could see him doing that with air because even donks know about the cbet nowadays so he knows I could be betting the flop with air

but if I call him once on the flop he'll know I have some kind of a hand and probably shut down his bluffs on the turn because he's afraid of getting slowplayed or something idk donk logic but when I call a donk's second bet into me it's usually strong

and if he bets 1/3 pot on every street it's often pretty weak, as weak as ace high that is like "lol, idk if I'm good, but I'll bet 1/3 pot" and I really hoped he would do this when I checked

I agree with iopq's thinking that the fish will bet a lot of hands on the turn if we cbet - check, which imo could be better hands, worse made hands that 'don't want to give your AK a free card', and bluffs.

On the other hand, mostly for the same reason as above I don't agree villains flop check is a weak hand. It makes little sense, but I have seen Qx checking back a lot here. Imo he'll be betting worse made hands a lot (the AK thing again).

So I think a flop c/c, with the intention of c/fing turn is pretty good, with the exception that a flop check through isn't as weak as you think, imo.

You guys, I'm pretty sure half-stacked fish don't often take the float in a 3bet pot to shove the rest of their stack in when checked to on the turn line.

I think if the board was Q75 id say bet this flop for sure, because its Q42 i think checking and betting is close but still id bet. As played its not too thin at all.

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Why would you bet full pot? I think you outplayed yourself a bit here.

because if I shove my entire stack in I get more folds and I'm not typing 34.65

aren't you making this play because you want to get some calls from worse hands? makes no sense to turn your hand into a bluff here? A5/2x/Qx call no matter what.. and you're folding out the rest?

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Why would you bet full pot? I think you outplayed yourself a bit here.

because if I shove my entire stack in I get more folds and I'm not typing 34.65

aren't you making this play because you want to get some calls from worse hands? makes no sense to turn your hand into a bluff here? A5/2x/Qx call no matter what.. and you're folding out the rest?

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Why would you bet full pot? I think you outplayed yourself a bit here.

because if I shove my entire stack in I get more folds and I'm not typing 34.65

aren't you making this play because you want to get some calls from worse hands? makes no sense to turn your hand into a bluff here? A5/2x/Qx call no matter what.. and you're folding out the rest?

I think based on the way this hand played I'm almost freerolling on the river since his range of hands that beats us is so small given his flop check, passive line on the turn

and I don't think if I leave a few dollars on the table that he's going to call me much more often
again, I'd rather him call this bet 50% of the time than a 1/2 pot bet 90% of the time

if the read is that you're freerolling and you're convinced he just about never has you beat its all good.

say he likes to slow play though then when you bet half pot you get called by worse 90% of the time but he does have you beat it only costs half as much.

As played I'd just go 12 on the turn and shove river rather then 1/2 pot and PSB river.

I'd just go with b/f, c/f, shove for the reasons renton stated.