100nl - TPTK on a gross board 3betpot

[JL]

Villain is a typical 100nl multi-tabling reg. He opens about 40% of his BTNs, and folds to 3bets 68% overall.
I don't have any reads that would help for this hand.

Thoughts on my line? Should I just cbet the flop?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($104.55)
CO ($98.50)
BTN ($131.40)
SB ($31.70)
Hero ($112.55)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, BTN raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10, BTN calls $7

Flop: ($20.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $14, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($48.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($48.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $32, $32 to Hero ($88.55)?

[unclesteve]

I like a cbet more than a c/c here, by c/cing this brd we're inviiting villainn to barrel us off czo we defn can't call 3streets. IDK what villain would bet with here when checked to other than a nutted hand or a pure bluff, like 87cc or sth... Him ckbking turn and betting river is a really weird line though, idk what he can do this with apart form Qx.

[pocketfours]

Flop line meh/fine without reads. River call or flip a coin, def don't jam.

[Alexos]

Played fine, river is a close call. If the action went check flop, bets turn, bets river, then i'd lead towards folding. I feel like cbet% and AF help me make decisions in these spots, the higher these are the more likely he plays a Q like this.

[griffey24]

Played fine, river is a close call. If the action went check flop, bets turn, bets river, then i'd lead towards folding. I feel like cbet% and AF help me make decisions in these spots, the higher these are the more likely he plays a Q like this.

Yah I was talking to JL about this hand and said the same thing.

His cbet % would probably be the most indicative here of whether or not he would bet AQ on the flop or not. That seems to be the only hand that really makes sense for value here.

I'd imagine KQ/QJ would both bet the turn.

[ATOTHEC101]

Whole hand is fine if you snap river, he bets all potential boats/straights on the turn and usually checks back all his qx on the flop.

[paratrooper99]

bet/fold around half the pot on the river. As played, meh.
My play if I am villian.
If I am in position here and I missed, I know that you are not very strong with the check/call flop check turn and I have to bet here knowing that only a hand similar to yours or better calls. If I hit a full house on on flop or turn, I dont think that I make that size of bet. I look to either get a thinner value bet (because the hand was played so weak) or an overbet that would look suspicious and get called by TPTK or trip queens.

So, I think your ahead here. I would call.

[nutsinho]

Whole hand is fine if you snap river, he bets all potential boats/straights on the turn and usually checks back all his qx on the flop.

yea usually. he is probably even less likely to bet check bet such a runout as a bluff or w lesser value. so how does your logic help?