2/4: flop the nuts (deep)

Villain is 46/25/1.6 weak passive. Has never 3bet in 117 hands. 160bb deep. Usually when these passive players raise the flop they have a pretty big hand.

SB ($1,924)
BB ($416)
UTG ($414)
Hero ($644)
BTN ($793)

Dealt to Hero A J
fold, Hero raises to $14, BTN calls $14, fold, fold

FLOP ($34) Q K T
Hero bets $27, BTN raises to $60, Hero raises to $136, BTN calls $76

TURN ($306) Q K T 8
Hero bets $225, BTN calls $225

RIVER ($756) Q K T 8 8
Hero's action with 269 behind?

Shove - he has j9 a bunch and maybe kq just as much as the frequencies of qq/10s...and no point c/calling since i don't see what would bluff.

3-bet larger on the flop

Originally Posted by Ravageur

Shove - he has j9 a bunch and maybe kq just as much as the frequencies of qq/10s...and no point c/calling since i don't see what would bluff.

Definitely no point to c/c as you say, so I decided to c/f.

Edit: I thought J9 would put it in on the flop or shove the turn.

If you check and he shoves you are going to be getting 4 to 1 on a call, which means you have to be winning 20% of the time to have a call be profitable. It's really as simple as that. The simple idea that I think its plausible that you are winning or chopping makes this an easy call.

But back to the actual hand I'd absolutely shove. You are giving yourself too much credit on your ability to read this guys hand.

Originally Posted by Renton

3-bet larger on the flop

This for sure. His range of hands on the flop are a ton of hands that will not at all be able to fold to a large 3bet here. Especailly if his 3bet is low and he can have hands like KK/QQ/TT.

If I had raised bigger on the flop, I'd just shove turn.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

If you check and he shoves you are going to be getting 4 to 1 on a call, which means you have to be winning 20% of the time to have a call be profitable. It's really as simple as that. The simple idea that I think its plausible that you are winning or chopping makes this an easy call.

But back to the actual hand I'd absolutely shove. You are giving yourself too much credit on your ability to read this guys hand.

I wise man once taught me that calling in spots where you are never good is one of the worst mistakes you can make in this game. I guess we don't agree about this being such a spot, but I think it is and I've got to go with my reads. It's not like folding is going to be a huge mistake even if I'm wrong.

If I thought he could have called the turn with J9 I would definitely have jammed the river, but since I think he never has that (or AJ) I think c/f is the correct play.

Well, he is very interested in the hand on the flop and at all streets.
You have to ask yourself this quistion. Would he be that agressive with a set at such a board?
So, most likely he has the same hand as you have.
There is a small change that he has the sucker end of the straight, and he might full house.
In both cases ther is no real value for you in raising. If he has the sucker end it would be stupid to call.
If he has a full house you will loose more if you raise.
So the answer must be check and then if he bets, call any bet.

Peter
pokerandpleasure

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I wise man once taught me that calling in spots where you are never good is one of the worst mistakes you can make in this game. I guess we don't agree about this being such a spot, but I think it is and I've got to go with my reads. It's not like folding is going to be a huge mistake even if I'm wrong.

If I thought he could have called the turn with J9 I would definitely have jammed the river, but since I think he never has that (or AJ) I think c/f is the correct play.

If you have such great reads on the player where you can narrow his range down to TT/QQ/KK there is no point in posting this hand, is there?

I agree with ISF.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

If I thought he could have called the turn with J9 I would definitely have jammed the river, but since I think he never has that (or AJ) I think c/f is the correct play.

wait what? J9 is a straight. go allin not close

Originally Posted by nutsinho

wait what? J9 is a straight. go allin not close

Yes it's a straight and I think he jams the flop or turn with that so I had to remove it from his range.

Originally Posted by Alexos

If you have such great reads on the player where you can narrow his range down to TT/QQ/KK there is no point in posting this hand, is there?

I agree with ISF.

Just arguing against for sake of discussion. Not only TT/QQ/(KK) (6-9 combos), but also KQ/KT/QT (30 combos) and I don't think he calls a bet or bets himself with those.

I guess I'm torn between shoving and c/f. He could be bad enough to show up with something random or bad enough to call with KQ which probably makes it a shove but I disagree with nutsinho in that I think it's pretty close.

well, if u check and he shoves a range of every combo of KK,QQ,TT,AJ (worst case and likely impossible from preflop) you still have 25% equity. you would only need like 21% to call. so i dont know what this thread is about

He doesn't have AJ or J9 in his river range in my opinion. But yeah obviously pretty pointless thread. Results: villain snap checked behind KT.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

He doesn't have AJ or J9 in his river range in my opinion. But yeah obviously pretty pointless thread. Results: villain snap checked behind KT.

This thread actually isn't pointless. It reveals a flaw in your thought process regarding the sureness of your own hand reading. No matter how much you think your opponents range can be narrowed down to hand x,y, and z exclusively, you shouldn't totally throw out every other plausible hand he could play this way. You should simply weight x,y, and z more heavily than those other hands, but only slightly or a moderate amount.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Just arguing against for sake of discussion. Not only TT/QQ/(KK) (6-9 combos), but also KQ/KT/QT (30 combos) and I don't think he calls a bet or bets himself with those.

If you think his range has so many strong hands in it, I guess I don't really get why you wouldn't just ram 3bet this flop so hard. It's not as if you think he would get away from these hands?

Originally Posted by griffey24

If you think his range has so many strong hands in it, I guess I don't really get why you wouldn't just ram 3bet this flop so hard. It's not as if you think he would get away from these hands?

Yeah I misplayed the flop obviously, I heard you the first time.

edit: not sure if he calls a turn jam with two pair when I 3bet flop bigger, so I don't think my play is super terrible. But yeah, fish raises flop, we have the nuts, let's put some money in the pot.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

This thread actually isn't pointless. It reveals a flaw in your thought process regarding the sureness of your own hand reading. No matter how much you think your opponents range can be narrowed down to hand x,y, and z exclusively, you shouldn't totally throw out every other plausible hand he could play this way. You should simply weight x,y, and z more heavily than those other hands, but only slightly or a moderate amount.

Yeah this is of course correct, just pretty damn hard to do while playing. I mean theoretically with your logic I should include 72o with a tiny million to one probability in every range. Can't do that so we need to include only what we think is significant.

I think the probability of villain showing up with J9 or AJ is small enough to be insignificant. I think he has me beat approx 95% of the time he jams this river. In this hand I expect him to 4bet J9/AJ on the flop, but I don't consider it an insignificant part of his range until he just calls the turn.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I think the probability of villain showing up with J9 or AJ is small enough to be insignificant.

Your overrating the accuracy of your hand reading ability.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Your overrating the accuracy of your hand reading ability.

Lol what? If I think he doesn't have the straight then I think he doesn't have the straight and there's nothing I can do about that is there? I have duly noted that Danny and Rich both think he almost always has the straight and I should have jammed to get him off the split.

get him off the split? no one is folding AJ here in all of ever. i think you have a good poker mind but dont be so defensive, you seriously need to reevaluate your hand reading. i mean the mere fact that he got to this river with KT shows that all of your assumptions were wrong.

Rich you tilt me sometimes. Seriously. Plz unblock me from your AIM.

He had EXACTLY what I put him on WTF????

Originally Posted by nutsinho

get him off the split? no one is folding AJ here in all of ever.

And jesus fucking christ let that be a level.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Lol what? If I think he doesn't have the straight then I think he doesn't have the straight and there's nothing I can do about that is there?

Yes, there is something you can do about it, you can stop being ignorant about you thinking he doesn't have a straight = he never has a straight.

Let me speak for everyone else reading this thread and not posting : WTF?

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Yes, there is something you can do about it, you can stop being ignorant about you thinking he doesn't have a straight = he never has a straight.

I don't understand what you are trying to achieve by reiterating. Your opinion was duly noted. I didn't say that he never has the straight, I simply said that with my reads I thought the likelihood of him having a straight was small enough that it didn't change my plan in the hand.

If his range by the river consists solely of flopped sets, flopped two pair hands, and he never calls or bets with his two pair hands, then the correct strategy is to c/f. Due to the size of the pot, the correct strategy will change very fast when we start adding straights to his range. This is clear to everyone and can't be argued about.

I certainly get what you and Rich are trying to say: You are saying that this situation is too marginal for me to make such a thin play with so much money commited. I have duly noted your opinion about this and most of the readers will trust your opinion over mine anyway.

Just to throw grease on the fire: Now you are saying that not only do you think he doesn't have AJ/J9 for us profitably get the money in, but that if he has 2pr here he 1)isnt calling a shove for 1/4 pot on river and 2)he's never shoving for 1/3 pot with them. That's some crazy shit.

Just to add some more combos for this fishy type.

Given your flop 3b sizing, I would say he's capable of peeling much worse than you'd expect, or than he would be if you had 3bet bigger potentially. Wouldn't be surprised to see several combos of Axdd, Jxdd or 9xdd getting to the river.

Certainly if they got to the turn, they would get to the river.

edit: you block Axdd, but still Jxdd and 9xdd, and obv Kxdd/Qxdd

Originally Posted by Alexos

Just to throw grease on the fire: Now you are saying that not only do you think he doesn't have AJ/J9 for us profitably get the money in, but that if he has 2pr here he 1)isnt calling a shove for 1/4 pot on river and 2)he's never shoving for 1/3 pot with them. That's some crazy shit.

Read my previous comment:

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I guess I'm torn between shoving and c/f. He could be bad enough to show up with something random or bad enough to call with KQ which probably makes it a shove but I disagree with nutsinho in that I think it's pretty close.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

And jesus fucking christ let that be a level.

if this wasnt a level by you, you should quit poker. that is my honest assessment.

oh and ive never blocked you on aim. chill out

Originally Posted by nutsinho

if this wasnt a level by you, you should quit poker. that is my honest assessment.

It wasn't

Fuuuuuuckin hell.

I'm well out of my depth at this level, so fuck knows why I'm gonna throw my 2c in, but villain is 46/25, he's a fish, there's tons of 2pr combos in his range, not to mention J9 or even AA. Raise flop more, shove flop to reraise. He's calling 2pr and better since AA and AK are most definitely in your range and probably play like this from the perspective of a 46/25 donk. As played, fuck it, shove river. Yeah we lose to boat sometimes, but this guy isn't folding his flopped 2pr to a 3rd of pot shove when you can easily have AA/AK, hands that he beats. There's more hands in his range that we beat than hands that we lose to, assuming he calls all his range to a shove it's got to be +ev.

"get him off the split? no one is folding AJ here in all of ever."

I agree with this. Well, maybe not the term "no one", but no 46/25 folds AJ here in all of ever. The concept of getting him off the split seems ludicrous.

Ok sorry for sticking my head into the big boy's room, I'll go back to penny poker.

*edit he doesn't beat AA after the river, sorry. Still think he calls a shove with his entire flop raising range though.

I don't feel like reading this whole thread to give my take, my advice on the hand would be once again to 3-bet the flop larger. As played bet the turn larger, nearly pot. On boards like this you stand to get much more value with cards left to come than on the river.

As played on the river it seems like a very easy shove. He has all the flopped two pair combos, potentially J9 as well. As far as boats, there are very few of them he could even have. K8/Q8/T8/88 don't raise flop and call a 3-bet. TT is certainly possible and is his most likely full house. KK/QQ are fairly well nullified given that for every 2 times he has those he also has AA (which never folds).

Originally Posted by OngBonga

The concept of getting him off the split seems ludicrous.

What are you people smoking? We'll show EV = pot/2 = $378 immediate profit if we get him off the split. That's alotta cheese...

It so happens that's also my favorite move in the unlimited two card holdems. Getting them off the splittings of the potmoneys. Especially funny when there's like five consecutive cards on the board, ie straight. Or even five of the same symbol and colour, ie flush.

I always try to think like Jedi Master Yoda: Play the board you shall not!

Originally Posted by pocketfours

What are you people smoking?

////

That's alotta cheese...

You answered the question for me.

I'm just gonna quietly view this thread because like I say, this is way out of my depth, I should probably have kept my opinion to myself. What I meant with my "ludicrous" comment was simply that I don't ever see us pushing this guy off a chop, it seem ludicrous to consider it in this spot, not just in general.

Anyway, there's a rock here to hide behind.

How was this thread not over 20+ posts ago?

To make a nice summary:

1) 3bet flop larger
2) this is the most trivial value shove ever
3) you are never getting villain off a split
4) just because he hasn't 3bet in 120 hands does not mean he is never 3betting premium hands
5) not sure if you noticed but two pair otf does not have a full house otr

And finally for perhaps the first time in months someones EVER posted a pokerstove output in a thread:

Board: Qs Kc Td 8d 8c

Hand 0: 28.125% 18.75% 09.38% 9 4.50 { KK-QQ, TT, AJs, KQs, KTs, J9s, AJo, KQo, KTo, J9o }
Hand 1: 71.875% 62.50% 09.38% 30 4.50 { AdJs }


This doesn't even discount QQ or KK which we can expect to 3bet preflop at least some % of the time. I think we can leave it at that.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

if this wasnt a level by you, you should quit poker. that is my honest assessment.

I think my ace high is good here Rich. I call your bluff.

flop bigger def jam river, ez game.

i dont think the flop raise size is bad, and if it should be bigger it shouldnt be much. id bet smaller on the turn.

obv him folding a chop is profitable, but thats irrelevant in this case because we know shoving is already hugely +EV

Can't believe nobody saw the irony in the shove river to fold chop comment. Hope this fail thread lives long and prospers.

bump

Originally Posted by pocketfours

wrong thread

LEVEL!

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Can't believe nobody saw the irony in the shove river to fold chop comment. Hope this fail thread lives long and prospers.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

wrong thread

Originally Posted by Genitruc

LEVEL!

Does not compute

i know isf and rich already chimed in to give p4s crap but this is pretty important

p4s- if you could make as detailed reads as you claimed to be able to make at the beginning of this thread with any regularity then you would be the best nlhe player in the world. i know this because i have played against pretty much all of them, and even after thousands of hands against the same person hu (in contrast to your 120 hands 6handed) i usually cant make reads nearly as accurate as the ones you try to make.

this hand is a perfect example where having too much confidence in your reads led you to make a large mistake (not jamming the river). there are probably lots of other times where your confidence in your reads allows you to make the perfect play, but the key skill is to make the best play with the highest frequency you can, given the (in)accuracy of the past history at your disposal from which you make your reads.

Yeah, thanks for pointing it out Ben. This same mistake actually cost me a BI today.

Best point is to 3 bet larger on flop. That way you can get it all in on turn and it is not an overbet. I would raise to 185 and ship it on turn with no scare cards.

Overconfidence really makes people play badly