2/4 - JJ river spot

-villain in this hand is fast eddie, reg on stars
-he's one of the more stationy regs, calling most all 3bets (folds around 50%) and then being a quasi station post
-we've gotten it in twice today. first he 3bet and I called IP with 79hh, he cbet on Kd7d3h board I called, 5c blank turn he bet pretty big leaving a lame size behind so I jammed and he called/lost with AJdd
-soon after I flat AQhh to his MP raise in blinds and donk lead QcJh4h flop and he raises, and I 3bet get it in vs his AA
-preflop was full on mistake, this should be squeeze 100% given minraise from donk EP but I flatted by accident

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($281.90)
UTG+1 ($400)
CO ($400)
BTN ($770.80)
SB ($585.50)
Hero (BB) ($558)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is BB
UTG raises to $8, 2 folds, BTN calls $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($26, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN bets $20, Hero raises to $60, UTG folds, BTN calls $40

Turn: ($146, 2 players)
Hero bets $125, BTN calls $125

River: ($396, 2 players)
Hero with 365 behind??

Check fold.

He'll check behind worse (99/TT), VB better (Sets/Trips/A8) and he has almost 0 draws left in his range at this point.

Shoving is close probably -ev in my mind the few 99/TT that's left may fold and you might only get called by better.

i realize that villain is somewhat stationy, but i think that 5/6 potting turn to set up a river 9/10 pot jam is not slight overplay on a 5 turn in a minraised multiway pot. now it seems your best option is checkfold; he shouldnt have called turn w/ many draws that bricked, and he likely does not have enough ambition or incentive to turn 8x-TT into a bluff when checked to.

i wonder if you can bet like 30 dollars since his range is massively weighted toward TT/99

How about checking the turn? lots of draws he'll most definitely bet here.

Originally Posted by Massimo

How about checking the turn? lots of draws he'll most definitely bet here.

Won't people check behind draws here, since they think I could be trapping with a boat? Or will they bet, since they don't mind b/f now that they aren't drawing to a nuttish hand?

Originally Posted by Renton

i wonder if you can bet like 30 dollars since his range is massively weighted toward TT/99

Yah I was thinking something like this too, but we can probably manage a little bigger like 110ish or something.