2/4 line check

villain is 23/16 2% 3b and is a regular from what i can tell. no other relevant history.

Stacks:
UTG ($304.50)
UTG+1 ($374)
Hero ($426)
BTN ($422)
SB ($423.75)
BB ($409.50)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is CO
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $12, BTN calls $12, SB folds, BB folds

Flop: ($30, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $20, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($70, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $56, Hero calls $56

River: ($182, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $144, Hero goes all-in $338

Doubt you would bluff like this very often so the raise seems thin.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Doubt you would bluff like this very often so the raise seems thin.

+1

- as played I think everything worse is folding

I'm not even sure you are good over 50% of the time he's not bluffing.

I figured due to his low 3b percentage that he has a lot more value hands that would normally be 3bet thus it gives his range more weight to over pairs and he could potentially hero call thinking his hand is under represented. I could also potentially be bluffing with like 5x type of hand which could take this line. Also if his calling range is as narrow as everyone seems to think while his range is totally unaltered (he could potentially have 100% of his range here) then it seems like a pretty decent spot to bluff given that he's got so much air and non-nut value hands. I think it is probably thinner than I originally thought but I don't think that this shove is unreasonable.

Do you really think that a 2% 3bet nit is going to bet $144 on this river with an overpair?

Your sample size is obviously irrelevant as I don't know of any regular who 3 bets 2% while playing 21/16 at stars 2/4.

I don't like c/c flop, I would always cbet in this spot with your hand without more info.

As played river is pretty thin since he's never gonna put you on a bluff and your essentially at the bottom of your value range.

cbet flop for sure, as played i cant believe pplthink river cr is thin, id get 100bb in here all day every day

dude why aren't you betting the flop

because i am a retard and for some reason while playing this hand i was like oh man i can c/c twice a lot i am so cool. not thinking that barreling was infinitely more profitable.

Originally Posted by sauce123

cbet flop for sure, as played i cant believe pplthink river cr is thin, id get 100bb in here all day every day

Yah I definitely agree with sauce, you guys are all crazy. I think one of the most relevant things is this:

Originally Posted by reDZill4

villain is 23/16 2% 3b and is a regular from what i can tell. no other relevant history.

A guy with such a low 3bet, is waaay more likely than some other players to have hands like 99-JJ+ here and even other slowplayed big pairs if someone aggro is in the blinds, and he would play all of those hands the same way.

When we jam on the river, it's gonna look super weird, and he'll likely convince himself that we wouldn't play a big pair like this (which seems like a pretty good assumption). Our play looks just as much like a "oh crap... I don't think I can call this river anymore.. but I can spazz bluff shove with my 56ss or 66" type spot.

Flop c/c is sexy, but it is true that a cbet is not much better.

But I don't see too many worse hands, that call your river c/r.

Wow just saw this thread and am very surprised at ppl thinking river raise is thin. Just because a guy is a nit pf doesn't mean he's never calling light and getting married to an overpair. Seems like a std c/raise and I like how you played turn and river, though I would've just c-bet.

cbet the flop obv,

As played though i'd probably call instead of shove