2/4 - QQ played passively and turned into a bluff

Villain is 18/16/3.2 over a fair number of hands, but I think they're mostly mined b/c I don't have any notes on him.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $2/$4 - 5 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1214.95
Hero: $682.70
Button: $450.60
SB: $388
BB: $422.10

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with Q Q
UTG folds, Hero raises to $14, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 7 2 J ($30, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $24, BB raises to $77, Hero calls.

Turn: 9 ($184, 2 players)
BB bets $135, Hero calls.

River: A ($454, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $272

i dont really like the turn.

but i do like the river.

i usually 3-bet the flop and get it in. Did you not have the image for this?

I think you can win this quite often with $200 on the river against most players.

i don't like this at all as its very tough for you to have the Ks.

I also consider folding the turn. I think that the fact that you didn't 3bet the flop would lead me to believe that you thought his range was too strong to do so, therefore I don't see how his range doesn't beat you on the turn.

I think that if you do bluff, it should be for a smaller bet representing thin value with a weak spade.

Originally Posted by Renton

I also consider folding the turn. I think that the fact that you didn't 3bet the flop would lead me to believe that you thought his range was too strong to do so, therefore I don't see how his range doesn't beat you on the turn.

Agree.

Can you believe that he took this line and made the river call with 8s8d? NH sir.

Originally Posted by zook

Originally Posted by Renton

I also consider folding the turn. I think that the fact that you didn't 3bet the flop would lead me to believe that you thought his range was too strong to do so, therefore I don't see how his range doesn't beat you on the turn.

Agree.

Can you believe that he took this line and made the river call with 8s8d? NH sir.

lol wow. you cant beat soul reading!

i dont think villains line is that crazy, i mean if you are going to c/r then this is a decent card to double barrel and then on river he assumes your range is polarized and is getting decent odds.

i think his call is pretty standard

Can we not shove the turn here?

Originally Posted by Renton

i think his call is pretty standard

It should be anyway. Most people balance their ranges so badly on 4-flush boards.

So whats the worst spade you guys think we should be calling with here? I would think if we're calling with 8 we should be calling with any spade almost. Only reason we fold 3 and call with 8 is we're afraid the villain is bluffing with the best spade sometimes.

I'm also thinking that it would be theoretically bad to ever c/r with a middling spade here (as the villain and assuming we are deeper) because zooks river betting range is pretty polarized to high spades and no spades hands. Or do you think it would be ok to c/r this river with the 8 ever?

Does this mean that we should be range merging more and betting stuff like 9 on this river versus thinking opponents?

Basically villain should call here with any spade regardless of what level zook is on imo.

If zook is on a low level then its super hard for him to have a big spade and he never valuebets a small one. If he's one a decent level he may valuebet some small spades, but i still think its far fetched that any spade wouldn't beat zook's range.

I'm pretty sure the best play on zook's part would be to bet an unbalanced range of only value here, i.e. 10s+, without some really sick history.

always bluff the 4 flushes when

im trying to figure out why you flatted the checkraise on the flop? the only hands that villain is checkraising here have to be sets, FD's, Jx's, middle pr's for protection/balance of range, and pure bluffs (and the occasional slowplayed AA/KK--which with no history doesnt make sense).

now you can't know which of these he's doing it with (if we are assuming hes a thinking player and knows what hes doing), however when u look at that range, you are ahead of like 90% of it, maybe more ... and villain will go w/ a decent portion of that range for all the money ... by flatting, you allow another spade to fall off and kill your action (or beat you), and force yourself to play the rest of the hand super passively. this is extremely bad for metagame, and kinda creates a reverse implied odds situation by just flatting.

for all these reasons. b/3b flop --GET IT IN!!!

Bet/3bet the flop. river is good.

Originally Posted by Renton

I'm pretty sure the best play on zook's part would be to bet an unbalanced range of only value here, i.e. 10s+, without some really sick history.

Is his fold equity that bad in these spots in these games? Even the calling station live game donks fold to the 4-flush threat a lot.

yea i dont mind the river against most players with these statistics tho there r exceptions

turn is also a clear fold without the Qs

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Renton

I'm pretty sure the best play on zook's part would be to bet an unbalanced range of only value here, i.e. 10s+, without some really sick history.

Is his fold equity that bad in these spots in these games? Even the calling station live game donks fold to the 4-flush threat a lot.

That's not an argument for bluffing here. Someone with a clue is going to fold more often than a calling station in general but they're going to call lighter in the right spots (such at this one).