2 man vs 4 man math

Spent way too much time working on this to where it's hurting my head. Someone check my math. It's a chart showing the win rate assuming you win 66% of all heads up matches, comparing results of running single table heads up vs 4 man heads up. I made the table due to contemplation about playing single tables to lower my variance and wanted to see how much profit I'm giving up by doing so long term.

Anyone have any comment regarding the competition at the $30 and under heads up tables in regards to 2man vs 4man? The two mans do fill quicker, and with the decreased variance I am leaning that direction. I'm going to have to figure up my expected VPP per week to see if playing the 2 mans would push me into the next bracket which would cause the difference between 2s and 4s marginal with the rakeback bonuses.

Any thoughts on this are welcome. I keep flipflopping on which one is better long term.

i'd bet 4's are a little fishier but i base this off of higher stakes sngs

I had thought this to be true too simply based on the "Oooo look what I could win" factor that bigger tourneys always have.

Recently been playing in a few 2s and have been amazed at the amount of regs I've played. All silver stars with 20%+ ROIs over at least 1000 games. Still huge leaks in their games, but I imagine that is based on the $10 stakes.

My roommate and I did the math a few weeks ago. Basically its more profitable to play 4mans. I would recommend it, my profit has shot up since I switched. The competition looks the same at the $10 level, its prolly similar further up.

OH and also, a smaller BR is required for 4mans.

Sorry I meant a smaller BR is required for 2mans. You already said why, variance.

I did these calculations a while back - I think the results are in my operation, but I'll have to check. What I found is that generally 4 mans are more profitable assuming the same win rate.

It also depends on where you play. A few months ago, Stars had a much better rake structure for the HU than Full Tw*t. I haven't played in a while.

By the way, the 8-mans are even better if you have at least ~55% win rate and you like that structure.

That said, there's nothing like getting some good reads and then replaying the same fish 5 or 6 times in a 2-man HU, with him flaming in the chat box about what I donk you are. ++++++EV.

As with most pokerz, it's a combination of win rate, what structure suits your best style, and rake.

Larger sample size, the 4 mans are by far fishier. I played more than a few 25%+ ROI regs at around the $10 and $20 games. Still giant holes in their games obviously but the 4 mans are by far lighter. Variance can be a huge pain on the 4 mans tho. Had my best month ever in Jan with several big wins, Feb was barely profitable without any big mistakes. Long run the 4 mans are much better tho.

ANSWERING THE 4-MAN VS. 2-MAN QUESTION - Heads-Up No Limit Poker Strategy - Heads Up No Limit Poker Forum

Cliffs:
4mans are more profitable because they're like playing one game at your usual stakes for the usual rake, followed by a game at twice the stakes for no rake.