2000NL: DerekJC yams on my weird line

Poker Stars $10/$20 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players - View hand 475361
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Hero (BTN/SB): $4059.00
BB: $2020.00

Pre Flop: ($30.00) Hero is BTN/SB with A A
Hero raises to $40, BB calls $20

Flop: ($80.00) 3 3 3 (2 players)
BB bets $60, Hero raises to $180, BB calls $120

Turn: ($440.00) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($440.00) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $333, BB raises to $1800 all in, Hero calls $1467

is he shoving me off a chop enough? Is turn okay for balance or bet/call?

Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see how we can ever fold this. He rarely has KK based on pre, he probably rarely donk leads quads on flop and he might not play 44 like this.... so we have the nuts?

I'd probably bet the turn to balance with my air betting range. I'd imagine once we check turn he might give us more credit for a hand with SD value. Given that, it's pretty confusing trying to figure what he'd be jamming with here... but I'm calling.

Is this a joke? Also, are you implying the only reason he'd shove Kx on the river is to fold you off a chop? Which in itself doesn't make sense either.

I'd bet turn almost always though.

i cant imagine he thinks im b/c worse, and I can't think of any hand that he would bluff with here

i feel like he expects you to raise the flop a shitload here... why dont you bet the turn?

Just raise then barrel, Playing trickily here isn't necessary. As played, especially after checking turn you can never ever fold and the thought wouldn't even cross my mind.

This is such a sick hand, thanks for sharing. You shouldn't post any results though (the fact that you made the call).

I think I'm actually going to say fold river, but I'm prolly going to be alone on this one.

I have a hard time folding this because our hand looks much much weaker than AA. However, it seems like your going to see 44 a lot, but thats only one hand. I think its meh but I'd call.

as samoleus would say, this is not just a fold but a very easy fold. ive already discussed this hand with you though

sick

Originally Posted by nutsinho

as samoleus would say, this is not just a fold but a very easy fold. ive already discussed this hand with you though

my mind has just been blown... wow

I might have to quit poker for not understanding anything about this

I need to come back to this hand, just because my first instinct was a snap call.

I can completely see why a fold CAN be reasonable. The assumption is that most of villains range here for b/c flop are hands like 55-TT, none of which would feel the need to c/bomb the river. All of which would either c/c or c/f. While 3x and 44 will ALWAYS c/r the river.

Is there any weight to the possibility of a hand like KQ/KJ floating the flop OOP. Certainly if villain gets there with any Kx, he will think hero never has AA after turn check, making his Kx the nuts. The fact that turn check backs result in spazzy river plays must also have some weighting here...

I have upgraded my original response to "sick... I can see a fold here.. but after my turn check, I can't make it"

I have a lot of trouble folding versus such goofy lines.

Nutsinho, would you fold here against most players or is the fact that DJC is very solid a big factor here?

i just know that DJC isnt one to randomly lead dry flops so he clearly had a purpose. that means he either has the nuts, a small/medium pair looking for protection/value/or to induce, or a bluff. DJC is indeed very solid so he is not going to float a raise without showdown value or with a hand like KJ (he would simply c/c the flop). On the river, ESS reps exactly Kx or air, and our hand is indeed identical to Kx vs dereks c/r range. Derek very likely would jam Kx here but he never has it, and he's not (is anyone?) the type of player who would go out of his way to try to get someone to fold a hand as strong as Kx in this spot while repping just a few combos. All of this means derek will be playing very straightforward in this spot, calling bluffcatchers as he sees fit and raising when he has 44, KK, or 3x.

In the very unlikely event that DJC actually has a K here, isn't he more likely to lead the river than to c/r it? I feel like a smallish b/c has more merit than a c/r because it really is very hard to put him on a king.

I think many players would check behind their midpairs on the river but would have a tough time folding to a bet. Some players might also shove over a bet as a bluff (representing a K) thinking villain doesn't have 3x/44 since he would c/r that and he rarely has a king.

i foooold and grumble

I call in practice is that really that bad?

Why can't DerekJC think ESS would barrel the turn every time he's holding Kx for balance and sometimes be checking behind hands like 99/TT that are now value betting river, and now DJC can think ESS is value betting thinly and can rep a K and push ESS off smaller pair? Or is it a problem that if ESS can be chking back 99/TT that we can't assume he's not ever chking back Kx and thus Derek can't make this play as a bluff?

I realize Nuts said DJC never has a K, but does ESS really know that? It's definitely plausible DJC is donking flop w/ a hand like 55-77 and now turning those into bluffs....

Is this line of thinking completely off mark?

Originally Posted by Marshall28

I realize Nuts said DJC never has a K, but does ESS really know that? It's definitely plausible DJC is donking flop w/ a hand like 55-77 and now turning those into bluffs....

Is this line of thinking completely off mark?

Yes.

i would like to see the results if possible please

he had A3o