200bb deep 2 pr wet board 400nl

[meeloche]

Villain usually plays 5/10 I believe, I haven't played with him enough to have relevant stats. My guess is he's a 25/20 type.

The only history is yesterday he floated bottom set on a king high 2 tone 2 streets on Ks27sQs9 before betting the river. He also has not been noticeably tight oop.

The table just turned to hu as he just stacked a fish on the last hand.

Whats the best turn line here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($821)
SB ($834.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3, 6
Hero bets $12, SB calls $8

Flop: ($24) 3, 6, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB raises to $68, Hero calls $52

Turn: ($160) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $135, Hero (?

[yourfather]

This is a gross spot with these stack sizes. If you weren't deep I think HU it would be a pretty standard shove here. As is, I am tempted to call and call non 5, 10 heart rivers. Would be interested to see what others think.

[dsaxton]

I'd just call and call almost all rivers.

[Genitruc]

I think this is a great turn to raise for value/protection

[ATOTHEC101]

I think this is a great turn to raise for value/protection

Agree

[Numbr2intheWorld]

is this hu?

[dev]

Why didn't we raise the flop?

If we raise the turn, what kind of sizing can we use? Besides a push, if we're ahead we can get him stuck with 250ish, leaving about 350 behind. Raising and then folding a river would be horrible tho.

[nutsinho]

genitruc, what would your sizing be and are you folding to a jam. also its definitely relevant if this is HU; raising at all would be much worse if it is.

[griffey24]

The table just turned to hu as he just stacked a fish on the last hand.

yaaaah HU

I would call down pretty often here. We're not doing too hot vs his range that continues to a raise, but we're crushing all his potential air and pretty good vs his draws.

[Genitruc]

obviously it's gross if we get shoved on and to some degree we re turning our hand into a bluff by raising the turn

but

he can have either 99 (discounted somewhat since this gets repopped quite a bit preflop by most regs) or a turned gutterball that beats us. when we don't 3 bet the flop, it looks like we can NEVER have a big hand so I'd guess he's continuing here on this card with 100% of his range looking to get us to fold 9x or TT-QQ, or floats and random weak hands that got stubborn on the flop.

If we're flatting the turn I think we should be calling almost any river since 57 is very unlikely (villain is "playing tight oop") and a standard reg shows up with air on this turn quite a bit.

my question is what to do when villain fires a heart river since a FD is definitely in our range, assuming we're playing nitty and aren't 3 betting the flop with big hearts...

I don't mind flatting the turn here but I play pretty spewy and I'm raising this turn as a semi bluff more than most so I'd keep something like 36 in my value-raise range on this turn. Is he really gonna fold A8hh if we raise this turn small to like 311ish and set up a river shove.

Maybe I'm insane but when I'm "repping such a small range" I've seen thinkers go apeshipt and jam the turn with semi-bluffs oop.

If we're not raising here, the only hands that we're "allowed" to raise are 57 and 99. that seems to kind of suck.

i ll repeat that I think flatting is fine. i just prefer having a wider raising range than most in HU spots deep in pos. It prevents ppl from CR flops light and keeps them more in line most of the time... or gets them to spew and call down light.

[Renton]

i would just fold. He's super unlikely to have worse made or air, so you really only beat draws, which he may not even play this way.

[IowaSkinsFan]

i would just fold. He's super unlikely to have worse made or air, so you really only beat draws, which he may not even play this way.

Folding is much better than raising imo.

I still call down though especially if its a brokered 6max game or one starting. People who don't play HU may be doing this with like T9,J9, A9. And he prob wont give up on the river with bluffs.

[meeloche]

Wow kinda all over the place here.

My thinking is actually pretty close to genitruc's. What concern's me about flatting the turn is that he has so many more draws/air than worse made hands. There are also a ton of river's that I have to shut down on after putting in 100bb.

He actually hasn't been playing tight oop genitruc you took that the opposite way.

For those who are in the raising turn is terrible camp. Is he really only continuing with 99/57?

[Genitruc]

oh lol from op : "he has also NOT been noticeably tight oop"

I guess the "not" part is kind of important

[Renton]

hmm, i misread the board a bit

I still think its roughly impossible for him to have worse made. Sure, with 100bb he can have A9 all day long, but with these stacks that just seems so unlikely. The only other possibility is him semibluffing flop with 43s.

As far as better hands, the only hands he definitely plays this way 100% of the time is 96s 66 and 33. He might 3-bet 99, so lets say he has half of those combos. He could also have 75.

The question is, how do the majority of ppl play draws here? I think I personally wouldn't want to betfold the better of my draws here like NFD, OESD, and combos (other than 9xhh), so the only stuff you'd see me show up with is like pair plus gutshot type stuff. He could easily betcall 9x of hearts. I think thats one of his most likely hands, but that still has over 35% equity.

So, IMO, he has air and worse made less than 10% of time, draws 65%, and better made 25%. Therefore we have:

100% equity 10% of time
70% equity 65% of time
0% equity 25% of time
______________________

55% equity vs his range



How much equity do we need to comfortably cover for the times we get pwned on the river? I still think its pretty close between calling and folding.

[Genitruc]

renton don t you think the fact that we can very rarely have a hand that's raising the turn here makes it more likely that he's barrelling a big draw?

[nutsinho]

renton don t you think the fact that we can very rarely have a hand that's raising the turn here makes it more likely that he's barrelling a big draw?

qft its kind of ridiculous to think hes not barreling big draws

[meeloche]

I think he thinks I would 3 bet all my nutted range on the flop because it's so wet and we're deep. So my hand is pretty under represented at this point imo. It looks a lot like I have an overpair or a draw or a 9 which is why i have an issue on the turn here cause I don't imagine any of his range slowing down on it. I think we can also discount 33 and 66 a bunch from his range cause I have both blockers.

[nutsinho]

I think he thinks I would 3 bet all my nutted range on the flop because it's so wet and we're deep. So my hand is pretty under represented at this point imo. It looks a lot like I have an overpair or a draw or a 9 which is why i have an issue on the turn here cause I don't imagine any of his range slowing down on it. I think we can also discount 33 and 66 a bunch from his range cause I have both blockers.

There are 2 technical issues I would like to point out. First, underrepresentation doesn't matter very much if it is almost impossible for your opponent to value bet a worse made hand and therefore your hand is of the same relative strength as the slightly weaker in rank hands that your opponent thinks comprises most of your range. For example, I doubt your opponent expects you to fold QQ any more than you fold 36s here, and I doubt he has A9 or TT.
The second thing is that when we discount hands it means that we think that if our opponent had a given hand, he would be likely to take a different line with it X% of the time. It goes without saying that we can 'discount' a certain hand when we are 100% sure that there is only one combination of it.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

his betsizing makes me a little unhappy but i think its pretty ridiculous to fold the turn here.

[Renton]

renton don t you think the fact that we can very rarely have a hand that's raising the turn here makes it more likely that he's barrelling a big draw?

qft its kind of ridiculous to think hes not barreling big draws

yeah, i was just wondering cause i don't know how most people think with draws in this spot. I still gave the benefit of the doubt as you can see i gave him over 50% draws for his range.