200nl 250ish deep river spot

villian is rocking the SNE and is running like 20/17 but no relevant history whatsoever. No meaningful pots, now that I think about it I don't think I've played a pot with him over 30bbs before.

I mean like, this is a really easy fold right?



Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: $121.45
CO: $479.45
BTN: $200.00
Hero (SB): $491.30
BB: $200.00
UTG: $99.30

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is SB with K A
2 folds, CO raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero raises to $20, 1 fold, CO calls $14

Flop: ($42.00) T Q A (2 players)
Hero bets $31, CO calls $31

Turn: ($104.00) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($104.00) K (2 players)
Hero bets $45, CO raises to $428.45 all in
Hero....

This hand is out of control.

until reading this, my mind hadn t exploded from reading a HH in a while

k i m gonna go with my first reaction; fold

it can t be a bluff and we re chopping or looking at kate and william

I'm going to go out on a limb and say call. What's with the melodrama btw?

I guess he's probably calling your 3bet wider since you're deeper, on second thoughts that doesn't really affect this hand.

Would he ever shove the river with QQ/TT? Probably not imo. I think his thought process is "I have the nuts and this board nails his 3betting range, I'll shove because he'll never fold AK/QQ/TT".

Looks like a fold though calling can't be that bad since AK is near the top of our range.

Man I don't see how I could be folding this but I don't play 1/2 and would probably get my ass kicked all over the place if I did!

ETA: What does SNE mean?

Mann pretty tough spot.

I mean, I feel like he can definitely be playing KQ like this. Some % of the time I'd expect AJhh to raise this flop, so that discounts the royal at least somewhat. I'd also expect AA to raise this flop the large majority of the time, if it slow plays pre.

Also your sizing makes me want to call a whole lot more, than if you had bet 80+. It's not like he expects you to have many Aces or Kings full with that sizing.

I think this is a fold....timing and how many tables he's playing (if you know) would be useful though. Just seems like he's trying to cooler you, and I'm not sure a lot of people would consider 10 10 vs KQ a cooler on this board, this deep.

I think timing is kinda irrelevant, because our range seems nutted

- since he is probably masstabling, I think there is some chance he is shoving w/ worse (but this chance is very small, because of stacksizes) and I highly doubt he is bluffing, so it seems like a fold

Originally Posted by PKKFW

Man I don't see how I could be folding this but I don't play 1/2 and would probably get my ass kicked all over the place if I did!

ETA: What does SNE mean?

SNE means supernova elite.. look up the ps vip deal if that means nothing to you..

I dont think i'd ever fold either, but i think thats because where you and I play we expect villains to make catastrophic errors often. Where as this villain probably has a good think about the merits of raising TT/QQ and decides that he's often beat by AK/KQ and wants a cheap showdown.

Don't fold this. This would be a terrible fold. I thought everyone was being facetious with their responses.

He can have two hands that beat us right? AA, J9hh or AJhh for a total of 3 combinations of hands. And we can't be sure he is playing either of those hands like this. You're hand isn't obviously this strong. Too many reasons to call.

sick hand.

Why would he flat AA pre or on the flop this deep; why would he not raise a SF draw on the flop? These are the things I would ask myself and then call.

i'm aware that my opinions are worth ~1% the consideration of some other posters in this thread, but i think this one's a fold. i've never played this high, but in my experience deep-stacked oversized river shoves from regs are weighted too much toward the nuts here to include enough combos of KQ or QQ for this to be a call. that said i don't know very well how you play or how this guy sees you etc etc.

put another way, if i were in in villain's shoes, even QQ seems like a pretty marginal shove on this river, this deep, against a competent reg. especially without any loose or aggressive big-pot kind of history.

wat, my opinions aren't worth much.

i don't think i've ever been in a spot this sick.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Don't fold this. This would be a terrible fold. I thought everyone was being facetious with their responses.

He can have two hands that beat us right? AA, J9hh or AJhh for a total of 3 combinations of hands. And we can't be sure he is playing either of those hands like this. You're hand isn't obviously this strong. Too many reasons to call.

I'm glad I'm not the only one that thought "wtf fold? 3combos yo"

sometimes 1 combo is enough

Originally Posted by Genitruc

sometimes 1 combo is enough

Yeah but it's 6m, villain isn't a supernit and there can be worse hands he can be shoving for value given our hand is underrepped by the river sizing. Also there's legit reasons to discount all of those 3 combos at least somewhat given the action.

He might not be a supernit, but that doesn't really matter too much here. He's obviously competent given he's played enough hands to be SNE. From this "No meaningful pots, now that I think about it I don't think I've played a pot with him over 30bbs before." - sample size would be useful ofc but we can weight him to being on the nittier side of things.

Do we think he's capable of bluffing here? id our hand is underrepped...so then why would he turn made hands into bluffs here? I'd imagine he has a pretty wide calling range here considering the above....So what does that make his raising range? What does he expect us to call with? Why does he overbet shove rather than making a normal size raise? especially when our hand is underrepped. What parts of our range do you think he's targeting?

Yeah it might only be 3 (discounted) combos, but we can potentially discount all the other combos that don't have us beat to almost 0, meaning that it can be a call despite the fact that it's 3 discounted combos.

Why would he flat AA pre or on the flop this deep; why would he not raise a SF draw on the flop? These are the things I would ask myself and then call.

He can have two hands that beat us right? AA, J9hh or AJhh for a total of 3 combinations of hands. And we can't be sure he is playing either of those hands like this. You're hand isn't obviously this strong. Too many reasons to call.

Yeah but it's 6m, villain isn't a supernit and there can be worse hands he can be shoving for value given our hand is underrepped by the river sizing. Also there's legit reasons to discount all of those 3 combos at least somewhat given the action.

I have no idea what to think now.

AA sometimes 3bets pre and raises flop, AJhh/J9hh sometimes raise flop and J9hh doesn't always call pre.

Is it possible from our river sizing that he thinks we can't have AA/AK/KQ and can raise KQ/QQ? But why jam if he thinks we're capped with those hands. Our hand is underepped though.

yeah. this is certainly one of the toughest spots i've seen posted on a forum. it's just so weird.

Board: Ad Qh Th Kh Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 37.50% 12.50% 3 1.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 50.000% 37.50% 12.50% 3 1.00 { AcAh, AcKc, AhJh, KcQc, Jh9h, AhKc, KcQd, KcQs }


---

Fold.

I get folding, I'm just not good enough at poker and waaaaay too big of a station to do it here in game.

I guess it's close but I like folding, we're not getting v good odds since he's not shoving worse for value here or bluffing, imo.

So 95% of the time we split or lose.

So villian is never shoving here with QQ, QK, TT or KT? I think its a call. I mean is he really cold calling with AA pre that often to give him credit for one of 2 hands that beat you?

i m pretty sure if bikes posts results and we found out he called and won i quit poker

Like ISF said far too many reasons to call but too few to fold. Sickest spot ever though :S

Are we completely ruling out that he can be bluffing here?

I'm surprised so few people are talking about HERO's river sizing here. If we're villain on the river with KQ, and hero bets 45 into 105, do we really think we're beat?

If he never thinks he's beat, then its almost just as likely that villain over-shoves KQ here, than if hero had bet like 90 into 105 and villain over-shoves AJhh.

I think the fact that we lose to AA, J9hh and AJhh and ALL of those hands should be heavily discounted based on preflop and flop action makes a pretty big difference.

If he's ever capable of a sick bluff here (again - potentially more likely due to hero's sizing, since we look weak/weaker) , I think this becomes an easier but still close call.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I'm surprised so few people are talking about HERO's river sizing here. If we're villain on the river with KQ, and hero bets 45 into 105, do we really think we're beat?

If he never thinks he's beat, then its almost just as likely that villain over-shoves KQ here, than if hero had bet like 90 into 105 and villain over-shoves AJhh.

I think the fact that we lose to AA, J9hh and AJhh and ALL of those hands should be heavily discounted based on preflop and flop action makes a pretty big difference.

If he's ever capable of a sick bluff here (again - potentially more likely due to hero's sizing, since we look weak/weaker) , I think this becomes an easier but still close call.

I agree more with this than anything else but surely in response to bikes river bet villain raises not shoves and there seems to be a big difference in this specific spot between a raise and a raise all in

I'm from nit ring and would only fold here because of the lack of money invested - I also think that only J9s is possibly not in villains range here all the others are. Sure villain shouldn't call pre with AA but he could have.

Also if we call we are giving villain credit for making a sick bluff deep and I don't think thats a more likely scenario than villain simply having the ubernuts and making a sick value bet. It was mentioned above as well but surely our calling range of the shove is all nut ranges so shoving assumes a strong range calls so is villain really spazing a worse hand?

i doctored this HH a little.

I bet the river and villian tanked all the way down and folded. He told me in chat that "almost shoved on u" to which i was like WTF HOW ABSURD and tbh I don't know what I woulda done so I thought I would get some opinions on this hypothetical. Against this particular villian I probably woulda leaned towards folding but he's in that rare few that I might probably end up folding against.

Checking back a straight flush this deep vs our range seems criminal.

I'm not folding the river to 1 combo.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Don't fold this. This would be a terrible fold. I thought everyone was being facetious with their responses.

He can have two hands that beat us right? AA, J9hh or AJhh for a total of 3 combinations of hands. And we can't be sure he is playing either of those hands like this. You're hand isn't obviously this strong. Too many reasons to call.

Devil's advocate here, given the price we are getting, his frequency here his bluffing frequency has to be relatively high. Not to mention that if he is only ever doing this with better calling is a huge mistake and that I'd say he's shoving into more nutted range than his. Anyways, calling ~385 to win ~1K means that 38.5% of the time he needs to be doing this with worse. That means he's got to be bluffing with just under 5 (4.88) combinations. There are only 2 combinations of AxJh and 1 combination of KxJh. What other hands do you think make up the last 1-2 combinations of hands?

id fold, he prob has a str8flush

How can it be even remotely viable to check back the turn with a str8f?

Originally Posted by pocketfours

How can it be even remotely viable to check back the turn with a str8f?

they're hard to get, duh?

Originally Posted by griffey24

I'm surprised so few people are talking about HERO's river sizing here. If we're villain on the river with KQ, and hero bets 45 into 105, do we really think we're beat?

If he never thinks he's beat, then its almost just as likely that villain over-shoves KQ here, than if hero had bet like 90 into 105 and villain over-shoves AJhh.

I think the fact that we lose to AA, J9hh and AJhh and ALL of those hands should be heavily discounted based on preflop and flop action makes a pretty big difference.

If he's ever capable of a sick bluff here (again - potentially more likely due to hero's sizing, since we look weak/weaker) , I think this becomes an easier but still close call.

Don't you think everything else is more than heavily discounted when he shoves an extra 380 into a pot of 150? What is he hoping to get called by? I think the fact we only bet 45 makes it an easier fold tbh. I'd put KQ in his range if did a normal sized raise... I'd just be really surprised to see a bluff or worse for value here.

And why whould he check back the turn with a SF? so we'd consider calliing an overbet on the river!!1

Originally Posted by Alexos

they're hard to get, duh?

Hard for a SNE?