200NL AJs

I dont have HH so ill try to explain it.

200NL
Im open with AcJc from CO and villain (30/11/1.75) 3bets from b utton (his 3bet range is something like TT+, AK,AQs), SB calls wich is a lagtard and i call.


Pot is about 70$ Flop is K36 with 2 clubs so i have the nutflushdraw.Lagtard checks, I check and villain bets 50$, lagtard folds.
Now my question is, if lagtard would have called, is it best to call aswell? When he folds is it good to shove?

I like your line of reasoning

id raise. more equity for you if you knock one or both out.

i might be trying to find more reasons to fold preflop to be honest.

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

i might be trying to find more reasons to fold preflop to be honest.

agreed

i agree, preflop might be bad or borderline, i usually never call this, but this time i had the maniac calling aswell, and we all had +130BB stacks.
If the maniac didnt call i would fold it even with 130BB stacks...

The player on the button doesn't seem very aggressive overall, so i wouldn't count on him firing out another bet on the turn without a pair of Kings or better. I definitely wouldn't expect him to call more money into the pot with worse. Basically your options for a non club turn are going to be much worse than they are on the flop, and a non club turn is most turns.

What % of his range hits the flop (A-K, A-Qs, 10-10+)?

18 combinations of A-Ko, A-Ks
6 combinations of A-Qs
18 combinations of 10-10, J-J, Q-Q
(though with J-J/Q-Q i would expect BTN to check behind a good % of the time, probably close to 100%)
12 combinations of K-K, A-A

Given a reasonable c-bet range, you probably only fold out about 1/3rd of his likely holdings by check/shoving the flop. Though against the range of hands that would call a shove (A-Ko, A-Ks, K-K+), you do have about 35% equity.

Board: Kc 3c 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.138% 65.14% 00.00% 9673 0.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 34.862% 34.86% 00.00% 5177 0.00 { AcJc }



An EV analysis:


Hero wins 50BB 100% of the time, 33% of the time. (50 * 1.00 * 0.33) = 16.5

Hero loses 120BB 65% of the time, 33% of the time. (120 * 0.65 * 0.33) = -25.7

Hero wins 120BB 35% of the time, 33% of the time. (120 * 0.35 * 0.33) = 13.9

50BB = [(10xBB preflop 3bet * 3players) + (20BB c-bet)], Hero check/shoving the flop and winning the pot uncontested.
120BB = Hero check/shoving the flop and losing/winning the hand when BTN calls.

(16.5 + (-25.7) + 13.9) = 4.7BB


It's +EV given that, due to the relatively shallow stacks, you win a nice sized pot the times villain folds to your check/shove.

This doesn't mean your preflop decision was correct, though. Even with a weak player in the 3bet pot, calling with a hand like A-Js can put you in some tough spots on the flop (like when you hit TP and are faced with a bet).