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Perhaps I'm overly cautious and giving the villain too much credit, but pushing here doesn't seem like the right play. I'm trying to put him on a hand here and it just doesn't seem to bode well for a set of nines.
If he seems to be tight-aggressive, he probably is, and let's factor that into a range of hands. The fact that he called a $76 re-raise on the flop is more than a little distressing. The best case scenario is he's holding AA, KK, or QQ, which would be reasonable given his raise of 3.5 times the big blind, because he wanted to get some action from you but wants to get the action on the flop. However, if he's a good player, it's difficult to think that he would have called the re-raise on the flop. He see the flush and straight draws out there too, and I think he would either fold, or push right there. So, I think the odds are against one of those hands.
AJ is a serious possibility, but again, it's hard to imagine him calling such a substantial flop re-raise, unless perhaps he's holding the Ace of hearts. Or possibly two pair, and he's in there with J-9, or J-8, but that's on the low range of hands, even from the CO. If you put him on one of these hands, then obviously pushing on the turn is the best move, but these are likely your dream scenenarios in the hand (except for him on a set of eights).
The disaster scenario is that he's got a set JAcks, I think he would have pushed on the flop, so I think that's unlikely too, but something to consider.
Another, more likely (I think), scenario is that he's holding somehting like A-10 of diamonds, or Q-10 and already has the straight. This is *exactly* how I would have played A-10 of diamonds in his situation, and flopped an open-ended straight and heart draw. With Q-10, I probably would have pushed, but it's not unreasonable to think that he would wait a card to let you make another big bet and pot commit yourself, especially since at this point *he can be reasonably sure that you are not on a diamond draw,* as few people are going to pop it that hard on a draw out of position.
So, when we evaluate what to do when you're first to act, I think you have to keep those hands in consideration. Given the way he played the hand, he's probably packing something, and if he any real draw at all, he got there. From the CO, it seems like his most likely holdings are AJ, Q-10, J-10 (maybe), or A-10 of diamonds. Half of these hands have you crushed now (though you have outs), and half are not terribly strong hands.
On the turn, there isn't a massive need to protect your hand. More than likely, he's already there if he's on a draw, otherwise he's drawing slim (even if he as JJ, you now have a diamond draw)Your worst fear is giving him a free card if he's on a straight draw, only that's not a terribly likely scenario. When you push, the straight draw is going to fold (though i don't think the straight, you aren't playing like YOU'RE on the flush draw), the flush will call, and just about everyone else will fold. I think AA, KK, and QQ give up here too (if they're there), so you're not getting value there either.
The point is that you're not getting value for your bet, because anyone you have beat is probably going to fold on a board that scary, and anyone who calls you has you beat going into a river card. Unless your really think this person has J10 or a set of eights, there's not a lot of reasons to protect your hand either. What you need is information, so i'd recommend either making a smaller bet, or checking, and seeing what he does.
Yes, this puts a lot of pressure on you, and you could face an all-in bet getting only 2-1 on your money and not knowing if you're a huge dog or not. Not pushing here does have the negative effect of forcing you to bear your positional burden in this hand. I guess my inclination here is that if I checked and got put all in, I'd probably muck and wait for a better spot. I just think there are way too many likely hands for him to hold that beat me. Now, if i'd call an all-in here, then I'd argue to use the only leverage I have, rid myself of positional considerations, and push everything in hoping for best. So, that's my take, but it's a tough decision.
Perhaps the x-factor here is your table image. If this were in a game where I'd been playing loose and aggressive, and taking a lot of small pots, then it would increase the likeliehood that the villian is holding a lesser hand like an overpair, AJ, or J10, and that would weigh heavily on me and might push me towards pushing all-in on the turn. if, however, my image was very tight and aggressive, and therefore the villain KNOWS that I'm packing something when I make that raise and still calls it, then I'm going to play the hand much, much more cautiously.
So, that's my take.
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200NL set vs ugly, flush board, 150bb stacks.
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Originally Posted by gormancn
