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 Originally Posted by pgil
even if we do bet out, if JJ wants to take this pot away from us then it can. if you get raised on the flop here after betting (which JJ can do) then how confident are you in your KK? you have asked a question of your opponent, do you have the ace (or can you beat the ace) and they have answered that they can. so you fold your KK. the problem is, they could have almost anything here, but you have to give them credit for a better hand.
worse case scenario is when its a small A, then the opp might just call your flop bet. now what do you do on the turn. you know that most of the time the only hand that calls your bet here is the ace. do you bet the turn again hoping that they can lay down their weak ace? if not, then you check and your opponent can now bet with any two cards and expect you to fold a good amount of the time.
the problem as i see it is, if you bet and face any sort of resistance at all (which includes a call) then you have to slow down and assume you are beaten. you have taken away the opportunity for worse hands to bet at this pot by taking the lead. now you are much more likely to be facing a better hand than yours. but worse, you are building the pot for your opponent.
in summary, the fact that (most of the time) only an ace is going to put more money in the pot if you bet makes this a losing play. not only are you losing what you have put into the pot, you are also losing what a lesser hand would have put in the pot had you allowed it to.
i just realized that this is one of those situations where a short stack would have a much easier time, because a short stack could bet at the ace and expect a much wider range to call/raise than a full stack. especially in a blind battle.
so we are ALMOST saying the same thing - If I get called or raised on the flop I am pretty much ready to lay it down - but at least if I made the bet, I would know, right? That is what im kinda getting at - If you can take the pot down on the flop, isn't that +EV? Seems like it to me - its not a min-raise preflop - there is a decent amount of $$ in the pot preflop - So if we can take it right then, shouldn't we? If I get played back I don't mind giving it up - Its the same scenario as if I have JJ and raise preflop, get cold called and any A,K or Q show up - Im ready to lay it down - BUT i would lead out if i'm first to act (and most likely fold if a reasonable bet is made when im in position) and then react from there
the 2nd bold I see this way - A lesser hand will take you check/calling as a sign of weakness or slowplaying (most often weak)- If your up against an aggro opponent here, he will surely bet when checked to on the turn (I would most likely check the turn there if my flop bet is called) with any hand that he thinks might be good - I see players raising me with JQs in the SB vs. BB - and at 25NL players overvalue hands - yes, they MIGHT have an ace on me which im willing to fold to when I have resistance...but when im playing weakly (check/calling) they are more likely to go aggro on me - When they get aggro, how do I know if im being overrun by a crap hand, or if they really have the best hand? so what i think im getting at is we really can't call much on the turn or river..and when we act weak, they are likely to go aggro with much worse hands than ours - In those cases, I don't want to call turn or river bets - I want to take down the pot on the flop...That isn't to say im married to my K's here, its just that players at 25NL will play KQ (preflop against an avg stealing type raise) like it's da nuts - If they are betting like they are good, i won't call turn/river bets - But if I lead out strong I am more likely to make those weaker hands lay down -
and lets say we are being bet into by JJ, QQ, 10,10 (they bet into me with an Ace on board if i act weak), we can't really call enough on the turn or river to win a big pot - So what I see is that check/calling doesn't tell us much about our opponents hand - Leading tells us everything - If he calls, I slow way down and am prepared to give it up - But at least they SHOULDNT be raising my flop bet with worse hands than what i have (if they do, they are crafty little devils)
in essence, I see a check/fold here much better than check/call - Just because the call is weak and the BB can keep betting into us with worse hands - This isn't a bad thing, IF the pot stays small - But think about the 25NL players - They act as if they are protecting a 10,10 kinda hand against your KQ preflop steal attempt - we can't call large turn or river bets, so I think leading here and being prepared to fold to resistance is a better plan....good lord this is nutty long
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