25NL: TT 300bbs deep IP VS LAG

Im learning to play deepstacked and I got pretty lost with this one. This hand came up 300bbs deep a little over an hour into the session. Everyone at the table has been here over 100 hands.

Villain is a 39/31/9AF with 58 % steal. He has 3bet twice in just over 100 hands, neither time against me, but its been a pretty loose passive table so he hasnt had a lot of opportunities to 3bet light and I still get the feeling he could be playing back here since its omgblindsteal. We havn't played any big pots yet and I didn't see how he got his stack. I havn't been overboard stealing with trash since SB is a big fish.

His bet sizing looks so milky/blocky. He probably cbets 100% of his range which will include overpairs/ broadway flushdraws, probably some Axs flushdraws and 9Ts, 89s, 78s , 67s as well as underpairs and missed crap.

I feel really SA/WB on the flop and don't really know what he can barrel this size that I beat on the turn when so few hands are folding on this board. Thoughts would be appreciated.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($92.90)
MP ($56.35)
CO ($25.87)
Hero (Button) ($111.88)
SB ($60.41)
BB ($77.36)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
3 folds, Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, BB raises to $2.75, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($5.90) 7, 9, 9 (2 players)
BB bets $3.25, Hero calls $3.25

Turn: ($12.40) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $5.75, Hero ....?

I wouldn't fold for this price.

What's there to get lost about? Call and see what's up on the river!

Ok I was hoping to get some "call and if the river is X then Id probably Y" type responses.

Anyway, I called because he can be barelling some draws or less likely overcards, and a small chance he's barrelling 33 because hes just kinda aggro. I'll hopefully get to showdown cheaply if I'm ahead and I'm getting pretty nice odds. River is:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($92.90)
MP ($56.35)
CO ($25.87)
Hero (Button) ($111.88)
SB ($60.41)
BB ($77.36)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
3 folds, Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, BB raises to $2.75, Hero calls $2
Flop: ($5.90) 7, 9, 9 (2 players)
BB bets $3.25, Hero calls $3.25
Turn: ($12.40) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75
River: ($23.90) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $16, Hero ??? [$49 behind if I call]

The flush gets there, the 33 surely doesnt fire again, and the JJ must be getting at least a little nervous by now. Do I beat anything?

How about if he bets $16 on a 2 river?

I think this spot is too common and has too many factors for anyone to give a reasonable answer. This type of spot for me usually depends on what has happened in the recent history (last few times he's 3bet me) and my feel for his sizing/timing in the hand, and what he thinks I'll do.

2s or 2h doesn't make too much difference to me.

I think a shove is ok here but the fact that we didn't raise his weak looking turn bet with so much money behind certainly takes away credibility. Another consideration is that at these stakes a lot of players will simply never fold AA/KK overpairs postflop no matter what.

With that in mind I'd probably fold.

id raise that flop. deep stacks + overpair + unlikely chance of getting rebluffed + villain can call with worse + saves you from being in a tough spot on the next 2 streets

Originally Posted by gabe

id raise that flop. deep stacks + overpair + unlikely chance of getting rebluffed + villain can call with worse + saves you from being in a tough spot on the next 2 streets

So you're folding if 3bet then?

yea but i wouldnt expect that to happen much. i think tens are the only turns id bet

So if we raise flop and check behind the turn what are we planning for the river?

It looks strong enough that Im not convinced we induce anything from A high, and Im guessing pairs will just want to get to showdown. c/f river?

Originally Posted by Pelion

It looks strong enough that Im not convinced we induce anything from A high, and Im guessing pairs will just want to get to showdown. c/f river?

if we raised flop to 8 or 9 he might call with Ax and bluff river. i would try to check it down