3/6 Deep River Shove--- what do I do??

Kaiser Horst is a 20/15 tag over 600 hands with a very high aggression factor of 4.67, with most of that being on the flop and the turn.. the river is a 2.0 My image is probably lag, but me and villain havent tangled too much.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($2567.80)
Button ($600)
SB ($618)
BB ($621)
UTG ($1216.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9, 9.
UTG raises to $24, Hero calls $24, 3 folds.

Flop: ($57) T, 6, T (2 players)
UTG bets $38, Hero calls $38.

Turn: ($133) 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($133) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $100, Hero raises to $432, UTG goes all in for 1216.50.

Aaargh! I would call but only because the turn went check/check. You are only paying off TT here unless you think that a TAG is able to raise T6, T8 or T9 UTG.

eeeewwwwwwwwwww wtf?
I don't think I get myself to fold to quad tens here.

T9, T8, bluff maaaaybe are definitely in his range, with T9 being significantly more likely than T8

o yea, comments on all streets as well as river bet sizing appreciated

You forgot TT.... right?

I mean your line is weak, which in this situation is pretty standard for me. What do you think about raising the flop (not for value).

I just can't see how you fold here, I feel like 88/66 are likely, but meh i guess they aren't pushing the river (unless he's stupid). Will you tell us the timing on all his moves?

Idk if we ever see a reshove bluff here. I can't imagine opp putting you on anything less than a boat.

Originally Posted by sauce123

T9, T8, bluff maaaaybe are definitely in his range, with T9 being significantly more likely than T8

Mathematically T8 is way ahead of T9 here.

Is QJ ever this wreckless?

QJ would never ever raise here unless opp is retarded.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

QJ would never ever raise here unless opp is retarded.

If villain puts hero on a bare straight with a seven, he could be pushing here with QJ thinking we have to call with our low straight at this point?

What is his range UTG? I definitely think 66 and 88 are very possible, we can't fold here I don't think.

sick spot..

You'd have to be on serious crack to call here with a bare 7.

The more I think about it I would still call but I believe that T9s is def in opposition's range. I doubt that he would raise the river with JJ-AA.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

You'd have to be on serious crack to call here with a bare 7.

Oh my...T8 or 88 I think

he never pushes a straight

Pot odds are pretty good plus if he's a 20/15 he should be running about 12/12 UTG correct? Therefore his range should be TT'/88/66 here. Throw in T9s if you want. Still there is only 1 possible combination of TT and T9s. Given that I'm calling.

meh, call. but really wouldn't feel great about it.

Does a 20/15 TAGG raise 10,8 Pre-flop?

*It's a crying call but a call that definately has to be made*

u cant fold

i bet turn more than half the time

i run about the same stats as villain here and i never raise T9s/T8s UTG. I think he shows up w/ 66/88 here alot so i call

haha siiiiiick spot

Just ship your stack to 10101010 and be done with it.

10 9 kinda impossible cuz of your cards and if he's coolered you with 10 8s or 106s raising UTG preflop then give him your stack gg.

u know all this but whatever. don't think you can fold.

What if you had 99 and the board was 10 10 9 9 x and the action was the same?

hijack :

gabe what do you do in a bubble if villain calls your turn bet then checks to you on a blank river?

besides reading his soul

check it back, too easy for him to play bigger pair like that scared of a ten

i don't see how villain could raise T6, T8, or T9 UTG. TT is the most likely culprit.

a very badly played JJ-AA is possible too, but i doubt villain would play it like that.

crying call here if i was in a similar situation.

a 2.0 river AF is very high isn't it?

Originally Posted by Massimo

We don't care about stats here right?

FYP.

Sick spot. You cant fold it though, it's 88/88 as much as T9s/TT/T8s. As gabe said bet the turn.

note: I usually bet the turn, the main reason I didnt was because villain has a waaaay higher AF than any other tag I play with, specially on the turn and I wasnt confident enough in my reads to call a CR. Also I thought it might induce a big river bet with missed overs...

if he is as tight as he seems, and views you as loose, odds are he is not betting that flop if he hit it as hard as quads or even 6s full.

with the turn check and the river value lead and all in, id say without a doubt he has 88, and if hes dumb qj.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by Massimo

We don't care about stats here right?

FYP.

Yes we do. A high river AF just makes me think he probably makes river bluffs a little more than the normal TAGG.

Something to consider also is that he doesn't seem to be too worried about you having T9 or T8. If he's a good player and views you as a LAgg I don't see him putting you all-in this deep with 66 if these are very possible holdings of yours. Of course I couldn't fold it but that's the first thought that hit me reading this hand.

OMG plz post results cause im addicted.

haha results were I raised to 432 he instafolded.

I just thought it would have been kind of sick if he 3bet all in...

Originally Posted by sauce123

haha results were I raised to 432 he instafolded.

I just thought it would have been kind of sick if he 3bet all in...

lol...that makes sense why it says UTG goes all in for 1216.50 when it should've been around $1050...

Originally Posted by JL

Originally Posted by sauce123

haha results were I raised to 432 he instafolded.

I just thought it would have been kind of sick if he 3bet all in...

lol...that makes sense why it says UTG goes all in for 1216.50 when it should've been around $1050...

I noticed this too when calculating pot odds for the hand.