3/6 FR River CRAI bluff vs a bad nit

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($1022.40)
UTG ($814.40)
UTG+1 ($693.55)
MP1 ($620.55)
MP2 ($576)
CO ($600)
Button ($291.40)
SB ($718.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 6.
3 folds, MP2 raises to $12, 3 folds, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($27) Q, 4, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $24, MP2 calls $24.

Turn: ($75) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $66, Hero calls $66.

River: ($207) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $96, Hero raises to $920.4

i kind of like it. he hardly ever has a huge hand here so if hes a nit he will be folding hands like AQ here. the only really strong hand he could have is JJ which i think he would play a little differently or i guess slowplayed QQ but im doubting that so most of his range should fold to this.

Seems like a very good spot for this move. The key to a successful c/r on the river is usually that villain needs to think that you can reasonably assume that he will bet if you check, which certainly seems like the case here. A scarecard is another important thing that we have here.

It's also important not to give any timing tells. First a slow check (you are 'thinking' if you should lead or c/r) and then a fairly quick raise seems to look the strongest (raising with a flush seems pretty obvious here so it shouldn't take a long time to decide how much to raise).

I think I would almost always raise the turn with 30% equity though, but this way you get $96 more if he is weak. Of course it's a lot more risky as well.

Well done, no matter what the results were.

dont nits check AQ on that river? Im worried that he has something big enough to make a crying call with.

Originally Posted by Pelion

dont nits check AQ on that river? Im worried that he has something big enough to make a crying call with.

I don't see how villain can call this profitably without a flush. He needs to put in almost $400 more to call. Those crying calls just aren't profitable, but it's quite possible that villain has a flush here.

Villain needs to fold over 63% of the time for this raise to be profitable and I think that's very reasonable to assume here.

looks good

I like it. Would you c/c the nut flush draw on the turn there though?

yeah im capable of it, this guy doesn't read extremely deeply though

personally I like a smaller raise better but I like the idea in general. Although, I'm betting that with a flush in this spot you'd lead, but it's not that important because opp doesn't know this (I would think) and i cant expect a guy at these stakes to think that deep.