3/6 - KJ flops top two on flush board - 180bb deep

[zook]

Villain is a 25/19/3. We don't have much history but he's a frequent 3bettor.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $3/$6 - 5 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1451.30
Hero: $1191
Button: $1046.70
SB: $1563.15
BB: $1017.85

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with K J
UTG folds, Hero raises to $21, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: J K T ($51, 2 players)
Hero bets $45, Button raises to $150, Hero...

[pocketfours]

You really manage to get yourself in tricky spots zook, but I don't think you can make a huge mistake here.

I probably think fold because there is almost no hand that you dominate (except KT, JT no diamond) and you won't like your hand unless you hit one of the four kings or jacks left. I would estimate your equity at very close to 50% here though which is why folding is a bit weak. Interested to hear other thoughts...

[Numbr2intheWorld]

i think it's a fold and agree with P4s.

Even if you boat up you probably won't stack him.

[Renton]

its a fold and i check flop

[gabe]

no way im folding to just one raise

[zook]

no way im folding to just one raise

me neither. what's the plan for a blank turn?

[pocketfours]

no way im folding to just one raise

Of course not, but your turn and river skills can make a call +EV for you, even when it might be -EV for most others. This is the same thing as calling a reraise with small PP's OOP preflop: it can be a good play for you, but a loosing play for most others.

I do think this is a close one though, and if villains stats were any less optimal I would certainly feel a lot better about calling here.

[pocketfours]

no way im folding to just one raise

me neither. what's the plan for a blank turn?

c/r all in.

[Renton]

ok to rephrase, i hate betting flop in the first place if u aren't calling a raise. I think its best to polarize your betting range on this flop so you aren't exploited as much.

[gabe]

good post renton. im gonna spend some time thinking about that i think.

we can also 3 bet and fold to a shove, right?

[pocketfours]

we can also 3 bet and fold to a shove, right?

I don't see how.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

we can also 3 bet and fold to a shove, right?

I don't think it makes much sense for this situation, since he's probably pushing the same range that he's betting on the turn.

[IowaSkinsFan]

good post renton. im gonna spend some time thinking about that i think.

we can also 3 bet and fold to a shove, right?

Isn't that pretty much a bluff.


I'm a nit but I'd probably fold and I think betting the flop is the best move, but checking aint bad either.

[sauce123]

id usually call and check/eval and am pretty sure thats right and checking flop is bad

this deep we quantify the "mistake" of calling (even if hes never bluffing) as pretty small, but the mistake of folding when he has a hand like KT is pretty large.

[Genitruc]

-what are we continuing with on this flop

-does he know this

-does he think you ever start by checking this flop

-so what does that do to his bluffing frequency

[Alexos]

im pretty much never folding this flop but calling and re-eval...

3bet flop seems pretty bad no? he's prob shoving ROYAL gutshot FD zomg

[Renton]

this deep we quantify the "mistake" of calling (even if hes never bluffing) as pretty small

if we are calling 105 to fold or incorrectly stack off on a ton of turns thats a huge mistake no?

Also KT (and other hands we dominate) are a minuscule part of his range compared to hands like AdX 9d9 etc that have excellent equity vs us, not to mention made hands that have us raped.

I think u need to be intimately aware of his range and his bluffing frequency here in order to come out ahead, and you are never gonna be aware of these things in a spot like this that doesn't come up all that often, without a ton of history.

[sauce123]

renton- we r pretty much never stacking off ui

[Renton]

renton- we r pretty much never stacking off ui

so we are calling in good faith that villain will shut down enough on river and/or our hand will hold up enough for us to win back our 105?

[johnny_fish]

renton- we r pretty much never stacking off ui

so we are calling in good faith that villain will shut down enough on river and/or our hand will hold up enough for us to win back our 105?

Villain should have a high bluff % in this spot if he's any good + respects you.

nb: Do we need to have a 3b/f range here? Let's say 380/fold..

[Genitruc]

renton- we r pretty much never stacking off ui

so we are calling in good faith that villain will shut down enough on river and/or our hand will hold up enough for us to win back our 105?

Villain should have a high bluff % in this spot if he's any good + respects you.

nb: Do we need to have a 3b/f range here? Let's say 380/fold..

i m pretty sure hands we are 3-bet folding should be very very polarized unless we think villain will never ever semi-bluff shove with the bare Ad