3/6 - OOP with trips, deep, on crappy river

-villain in this hand runs around 21/17, but plays most of his hands from LP
-his steal is VERY high, around 42ish overall and probably quite a bit higher on button
-earlier in the session I raised his cbet once and he folded. Next hand I flatted AA pre to raise his cbet again on Q84 rainbow, and he called TT OOP, c/c turn and c/c his rivered set
-this is the first cbet I'm raising since that hand
-what's our plan on the river? If we bet, how much? If we bet, are we b/f?


$3/$6 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($647.90)
UTG+1 ($848.05)
CO ($1,332.90)
BTN ($1,386.75)
Hero ($1,166)
BB ($128)

Pre-Flop: ($9, 6 players) Hero is SB :Qd: :Td:
3 folds, BTN raises to $15, Hero calls $12, 1 fold

Flop: ($36, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $30, Hero raises to $96, BTN calls $66

Turn: ($228, 2 players)
Hero bets $162, BTN calls $162

River: ($552, 2 players)
Hero with 900ish behind??

I'd b/f $385. Yes you're not going to get looked up by alot worse but you definitely have to bet, not just because he can have worse 10x as well as look you up with random crap on occasion but you need to balance for the times you're just following through with a bluff. Any smaller you're likely to induce bluff jams and any bigger I think is bad due to an smaller likelyhood of worse hands looking you up. I'd also go slightly bigger on the turn, like $184.

Sweet. I would c/f.

check/folding and betting 310 seem really close

i check/fold, theres just only a few hands he calls you with that are worse

I can't decide between betting 3 something and c/f. So if you're running good bet 3 something if not c/f.

If Hero checks on the river I feel like I'm betting my whole range there, so it makes me wanna bet/fold here in grif's spot.

Actually that's be a good point, depending on who it is a bet may be better.

If it wasn't the A of hearts that hit the river I'd be much more inclined to c/f, but given it's the Ah, makes it really tough for him to put you on NFD, also makes it pretty tough for him to have a flush unless he had specifically something like 79hh or J9hh, in which case I like b/f somewhere between 310-380

would he call on turn with a flush draw (knowing its not the nut flush at this point, since he does not have the ace)?

for me, possible hands he could have to try to steal preflop and call that turn would be AT, A8, KT, QT, JT, T9, 88, J9h or an overpair?

tough spot, but i would have the feeling there's not much i can beat at this point considering that scary turn call. i'd probably c/f on river.

Ok thanks for all the feedback.

I'm actually surprised by all the c/f's, but I think that seems reasonable. If villain isn't going to hero call even an overpair here, then there isn't much value except from JT/9T.

I was actually villain in this hand. Hero bet $216 on river (lame sizing) and I jammed J9 on the river and he folded. I'm not sure what he had, but I'd imagine he prob had Tx of some sort.

I think he sized it pretty bad, and had he bet bigger I might have second guessed running the bluff. I kind of like his sizing with a hand he wants to b/c though.