44 Flopped Set, All flush board

[Muxy]

Game # 95990143: Texas Holdem No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) 02/14/2006 18:40:30
Table "Silliman St" (Real Money) Seat 3 is the button

Seat 1: movinsusan ($19.76)
Seat 2: temor11 ($21.41) >>>> sat out
Seat 3: TSIAWD95 ($46.16) [button]
Seat 4: tetmc ($29.15)
Seat 5: Boomer56 ($19.20)
Seat 6: Muxxxy ($91.53)
tetmc: posts small blind $0.25
Boomer56: posts big blind $0.50

>>> HOLE CARDS <<<
Dealt to Muxxxy [ ]
temor11 leaves the table with $21.41
Muxxxy: calls $0.50
movinsusan: calls $0.50
TSIAWD95: folds
tetmc: calls $0.25
Boomer56: checks

>>> FLOP <<< [ :Jc: :Tc:]
tetmc: checks
Boomer56: checks
Muxxxy: bets $1.50
movinsusan: calls $1.50
tetmc: folds
Boomer56: folds

>>> TURN <<< [ :Jc: :Tc:] [:Th:]
Muxxxy: checks
movinsusan: checks

>>> RIVER <<< [ :Jc: :Tc: :Th:] [:Kd:]
Muxxxy: bets $3
movinsusan: raises $3 to $6
Muxxxy: ........

she has 12 behind.....

[bigred]

Checking the turn was a mistake. On that river you're trying to get the most money out of her which by reraising her all in you will probably get her to call. If she doesn't or you think you need to bet less to keep her in, it's your fault for not getting more money in on the turn.

[r8ed]

Right. If they are chasing, you want the money before they see they missed by betting the turn.

[Muxy]

How much do you bet on the turn.

[gabe]

$3 ish

[zenbitz]

On flop: You bet 3/4 get a call. Good enough mistake for F/D to make, made flush is going to hurt you, but you have 10 outs. Villain has (in order of likelyhood)
1) f/d
2) pair
3) f/d+pair
4) flush
5) two-pair
6) set (possible)

5) and 6) and probably 3) make bad mistakes by not raising. So bad, that we can almost rule them out.

On turn: You fill up..., and now beat everything except JJ/TT/TJ/T4. And these hands really should have raised the flop.

The only hand likely to bet after your check is J4 or possibly pair and pair/fd. Everyone else likely slow plays. naked f/d probably checks behind.

The hands ahead of you all call or raise your turn bet - bad for you. The hands behind you... might call or might fold. The only hand that catches up is KT, who is not folding to any bet, I don't think. This is a wierd situation, because giving a free card almost never hurts you.

If you bet turn, and get called, and F/D misses... that is probably all you get.
If you check, and F/D checks behind.... should you then check AGAIN if the river is a blank to induce a bluff?

What you did apparently worked, getting the m/r on the river. Clearly you should raise her last 12, or possibly less if you think she might fold.