4b, call it off or flat, c/bomb flop?

Villain is a nitty reg running 18/16 with a 3b of 6.2 over 200 hands, but seems aggressive post-flop
a few hands ago I saw him nearly pot the flop on a paired low board (something like 775) against a fish so I just assumed that he cbets big in general

I know that 4bing here would be EV+ based on fold equity and I'd have to call it off getting the right odds vs. QQ+,AK
but since I didn't 4b him yet, and expect him to nearly pot the flop as the PFR and we're IP, is flatting > 4b/get it in here?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($103)
SB ($80.50)
BB ($116.50)
UTG ($53.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $2.50, 1 fold, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $9.50

Flop: ($24.50) 5, 3, 7 (2 players)
BB bets $20, Hero raises to $91 (All-In)

flatting can be good, it also gets you in a lot of tricky spots though. This depends a lot on villains barreling tenancies in 3 bet pots and his stack off range preflop. Game flow will also have a ton to do with it.

Aainst this villain, who is more inclined to get feisty postflop rather than pre, flatting his 3 bet with qq in pos seems the best play. Also postflop is standard, just flatting again is kinda redundant as I doubt he'll fire 2 barrels in this spot plus you hate life if an ace or king roll off, playing the hand the way you did I can see him looking you up with a ton of worse hands, wp.

just ship it, you probably dont make much from him 2 barreling

i think you make considerably more calling and calling almost any turn than you do shoving now. On this board, shoving QQ is an overplay and he could almost fold KK/AA.

Originally Posted by Renton

i think you make considerably more calling and calling almost any turn than you do shoving now. On this board, shoving QQ is an overplay and he could almost fold KK/AA.

I don't know, I would almost expect TT to snapcall

I know it always happens when I try to semibluff boards like these with something ghey like 86 or even AK

Originally Posted by Renton

i think you make considerably more calling and calling almost any turn than you do shoving now. On this board, shoving QQ is an overplay and he could almost fold KK/AA.

wat

Please elaborate on what type of range you would expect the button to call preflop and shove this flop with that makes AA even close to a fold.

Agree that villain never ever ever ever folds aa/kk, we'd be shoving for protection and the fact he'd very likely look us up with jj-88.

1) there are really no semibluff all-in possibilities for button's range on this texture. really the only hand taht makes sense to shove is like 4d5d or something

2) JJ and worse tend to call the cbet

3) QQ+ tends to 4bet pre

4) all of the sets are possible, and will shove flop basically every time, so thats 9 combos right off the bat to balance against what little else the button will feasibly shove.

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by Renton

i think you make considerably more calling and calling almost any turn than you do shoving now. On this board, shoving QQ is an overplay and he could almost fold KK/AA.

I don't know, I would almost expect TT to snapcall

I know it always happens when I try to semibluff boards like these with something ghey like 86 or even AK

k

so four combos of 86s less the times you decide not to make a borderline spew call pre, plus AK when you not only decide against a painfully standard 4bet pre but also decide against a similarly standard flop fold as villain is betting close to the pot on a texture where your range should be way ahead of his (i.e. he should usually give up with air).

whats that add up to, like 1.5 combos you are semibluffing all in with on this flop?

Also, 4betting pre isn't +ev because of "fold equity + getting the right price to stack off vs his value range QQ+ AK."

Value 3-bet-get-it-in ranges BB vs BT in current shorthanded NL is generally more like TT+ AK, sometimes even adding 99 and AQ, not to mention this is the situation where its almost the most likely to be 5 bet jammed by A4s or something (only better situation for that is SB vs BT btw). QQ is the of course extreme nuts vs a range that wide.

[x] has semibluffed KQ here
[x] has gotten snapcalled with TT

(I said AK because I felt embarassed to say I shoveled KQ on this board)

I have seen AQ and TT 4b/call it off, but only once for AQ and TT maybe once or twice
I haven't 4b even once, why would he 5b jam A4s?

I don't think he's folding TT but he may, but that's not the point, and Renton's correct imo.

I agree with Renton that flatting this flop is the best (I would jam sometimes if there was a FD out or something). I think raising small could also be ok, if villain is the type to spazz... raising him 20 to 42 or something.

Though I certainly don't think anyone will ever in their right mind fold KK or AA here! I've definitely seen ppl in hero's spot shoving A7ss, 88+ to not warrant making any big folds here.