.5/1- tough AK river spot.

Villain is 37/17/3.6. 7.4% 3b. 182 hands. Hes been really splashy and sticky in a lot of pots.

I bet the turn smaller than i usually do coz I was so far ahead of most of the things he could have.

Don't know whether he calls twice with a jack and know for sure he will call twice with a draw or an ace.

Whats the best move here?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($96.20)
SB ($158.20)
BB ($78.80)
UTG ($101.50)
MP ($59.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K
2 folds, Hero bets $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 6, A, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4

Turn: ($15.50) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, BB calls $9

River: ($33.50) J (2 players)
BB bets $16.75

my line would be to bet 5 on the flop, then 3/4psb turn. facing this river bet i'd call, really never raising or folding

I bet the turn smaller than i usually do coz I was so far ahead of most of the things he could have.

Forget this river decision and focus on why this quoted statement has nothing to do with this hand.

I meant to say that i am not up against a hand that has too much equity on mine, and so i want to bet smaller to keep it in. Like if he had just a naked FD then he might not draw to a bigger bet, where in this case he would. If he has a pair than i would definitely want him to call.

Originally Posted by shakesss

I meant to say that i am not up against a hand that has too much equity on mine, and so i want to bet smaller to keep it in. Like if he had just a naked FD then he might not draw to a bigger bet, where in this case he would. If he has a pair than i would definitely want him to call.

He will certainly peel a bet of $5+ on the flop with his entire range. You probably don't want to like pot the turn though betting a bit larger seems fine.

Your reasoning for not betting the turn larger is flawed. If he's going to call a larger bet with all his weaker hands it will be more profitable to bet larger.

Also on the flop betting larger ($5+) seems best because he's going to peel just as light if you bet larger, therefore you get more value.

On the river, you need to be good 16.75/(16.75+33.50) = .33 or 33% of the time at least to break even on a call. Given your read that he's fairly splashy I think it's reasonable to assume he will lead the river with Ax and missed draws along with Jx, so now your job is just to put him on a range for leading, run it through stove and see where you stand. It's probably a good idea to try a few different ranges to give you a better feel for this spot in general.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

On the river, you need to be good 16.75/(16.75+33.50) = .33 or 33% of the time at least to break even on a call.

You actually only need to be ahead 25% of the time [(16.75) / (16.75 + 50.25)]. I agree though that flop/turn should be larger, and river is a call.

Is he splashy enough so that a flop c/c takes away most draws from his range?

Your goal is to get A7o to put it's stack in the middle. You do this by betting big.

gotta call. he may think he is splitting too.

Bet flop and turn bigger -- this is a huge error not doing this vs. this opponent type. River is a an easy call. No value raising, folding silly.

although donk bets at the river vs fishy players are more often value than bluff, you are ahead of some of his value range and he definitely has pure bluffs from missed draws or gutters, especially considering you weren't betting big. Plus, oodles of pot odds.

call seems fine

Thanks for the insight guys. Will definitely be working on my sizing in these spots.

Could very easily be a flush draw with the jack of clubs or something like QJ hoping to suck out and it did.