5/10 3b pot river barf

Villain is playing 24/20/6 with a fold to 3 bet of 70%. When he calls turn I think his range is fairly strong and the river smacks the OESD but then again I don't know how often he calls 910 pre if ever, prbly a bit of 88 and 66 in there as well. Only have a 288 hand sample size on the guy but he appears to be a reg. My first inclination was c/f, is that really nitty?

***** Hand History for Game 3326352086 ***** (Merge)
$1000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, April 13, 09:55:32 ET 2011
Table Templo Mayor (33263520) (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: glitteringprizes ( $2233.55 USD )
Seat 2: ilikeaces86 ( $2141.50 USD )
Seat 3: rudddd ( $537.50 USD )
Seat 4: bigboysal ( $300.00 USD )
Seat 5: Sweeeeeeet ( $1238.46 USD )
Seat 6: xDaRIoAAx ( $2116.40 USD )
glitteringprizes posts small blind [$5.00 USD].
ilikeaces86 posts big blind [$10.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ilikeaces86 [ Qs Ah ]
rudddd folds
bigboysal folds
Sweeeeeeet raises [$26.66 USD]
xDaRIoAAx folds
glitteringprizes folds
ilikeaces86 raises [$100.00 USD]
Sweeeeeeet calls [$83.34 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, 6d, Js ]
ilikeaces86 bets [$140.00 USD]
Sweeeeeeet calls [$140.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jh ]
ilikeaces86 bets [$260.00 USD]
Sweeeeeeet calls [$260.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Qh ]
ilikeaces86????

I absolutely hate the turn barrel. He calls pretty tight pre, we don't have much FE on this turn, and we can't even shove for value on a rivered Q!

As played I'd c/f, don't think he calls 99/TT too often either.

I actually love the turn barrel and think c/f on the river is good.

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

I actually love the turn barrel and think c/f on the river is good.

Any reason you love it?

I'd rather barrel 9Ts, 79s, Jx, QQ+. If I decide to include AQ it's gonna be vs a looser opponent, not this guy. It's like hoping we level him by betting a bad turn card, but it's hard to level ppl who generally have stuff to call down with.

really marginal turn barrel. as played ship er in

the problem is that the J made trips. There are a ton of Jx in his range, and comparatively few in yours.

There seems to be tons of combo's of J's/88/66 in his range and not many of anything else so I think I'd just happily c/f the turn. River is a super easy c/f.

If I bet the flop I'm not checking this turn. River meh, I'd probably just ship.

How often do you guys think a decent reg ships turn with Jx compared to calling?

Originally Posted by Alexos

Any reason you love it?

I'd rather barrel 9Ts, 79s, Jx, QQ+. If I decide to include AQ it's gonna be vs a looser opponent, not this guy. It's like hoping we level him by betting a bad turn card, but it's hard to level ppl who generally have stuff to call down with.

I think you just have to know your player in this spot. Some people will call flop with like a ton of gutters/ random pairs but will fold turn a ton to half pot.

Originally Posted by ilikeaces86

I think you just have to know your player in this spot. Some people will call flop with like a ton of gutters/ random pairs but will fold turn a ton to half pot.

Agree, that's why I said I don't mind this vs a looser player. How much trash like that will this guy have? Doesn't seem that likely to me given description.

Originally Posted by ilikeaces86

How often do you guys think a decent reg ships turn with Jx compared to calling?

Close to 0%, but there aren't many decent regs.

What would you do with QQ-AA on the turn?

If I'm villain with Jx, then I'm for sure calling down. Your turn bet polarizes your range quite a bit.

So I checked he shoved and I folded.

Originally Posted by sauce123

the problem is that the J made trips. There are a ton of Jx in his range, and comparatively few in yours.

I feel like the J making trips helps you, since there's no less J combos he can have and most players recognize that 99 on that board with the J pairing isn't the stone nuts.

This is obviously really villain dependent but by the description you give he sounds v solid and not too out of line. Imo betting turn is horrible as 1. you're gonna get hardly any folds, and 2 what's your plan for the river? Shipping any river bar a jack seems like burning money, c/cing isn't going to be remotely profitable, even if you make a pair, though I'd be a lot more likely to c/c an ace river than a queen.
So basically c/f turn and def c/f river, this is 6 max not hu yo.

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

I feel like the J making trips helps you, since there's no less J combos he can have and most players recognize that 99 on that board with the J pairing isn't the stone nuts.

It's actually the opposite, regs are still never folding any pair on this particular turn, nor any rando straight draws, as they feel jx rarely hits you, and that your db range is really polarised to jx and big pps, of which they can get you off of on the river when you inevitably check. fwiw against most competent regs in this spot I'd be checking river with all my strong jx and nutted hands for balance due to how often it'll go check then jam with atc from villain.

Originally Posted by ATOTHEC101

It's actually the opposite, regs are still never folding any pair on this particular turn, nor any rando straight draws, as they feel jx rarely hits you, and that your db range is really polarised to jx and big pps, of which they can get you off of on the river when you inevitably check. fwiw against most competent regs in this spot I'd be checking river with all my strong jx and nutted hands for balance due to how often it'll go check then jam with atc from villain.

1) If we didn't hit a river Q I'd want to triple barrel. So are you saying regs snap off 8x here?

2) Depending on the player I think I could see myself folding everything but trips or better (or an A high fd) on this turn. Its also my experience that many regs would do the same, maybe things have changed since I stopped playing 6max though...

3) The J does eliminate a small but significant amount of his nut hands.

4) Given the fact he probably has a decent amount of straight draws and bad pairs in his flop calling range how do we get him to fold them?

1) I just don't see that many 8x in his range, most regs with highish fold to 3 bets don't defend stuff like 78s or a8s in this spot, and if they did they definitely wouldn't be folding this turn and possibly not river depending on how they think. His range is gonna be some thing like mid to high pp's, suited broadway's, off suit aq and maybe a handful of other suited things on occasion. The vast majority of which that called the flop and turn are never folding any river even if it's an ace or queen, as I don't think jamming either of those cards in hero's position for value/merge is correct in the described situation, so then you have to venture into close eyes and check call mode as he's going to jam atc which is just a bad spot to be in.

2) In my recent experience I and most regs are never folding anything on the turn that we called the flop with for value bar maybe aq

3) This may be true but for the reasons stated above I would much rather the the turn be a blank as my 2 barrel in that spot would get infinitely more respect and folds.

4) A large majority of the time he won't have those in his range and if he does the only way to fold them would be to fire 3 which as previously mentioned I feel is largely -ev.

Basically just c/f turn and don't feel like that's weak, it's just unfortunate that exact turn card was to fall.

If I had AA in the hand instead of AQ does anyone advocate shoving and if so why?

I'd c/f turn with AA too. I still wouldn't shove river as played.

this is tough but I like the turn barrel and would c/f river. Actually the more I think about it betting this J turn against this particular player isn't brilliant. However I would do it myself(even though no F equ) a lot then give up on any river anyway. Maybe I m on the way to curing my massive leak of not knowing when to stop barreling after 3 betting OOP with out a pair.....