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This spot sucks pretty hard. We're somewhat deep so we could convince ourselves that we have FE but I really don't think we do. He's jamming this flop hard, and I'd imagine he shows up with JT, 44 or Axclubs a lot here.
I honestly bet/shove here, but mostly cause I'm dumb/aggro in the moment and not cause I think thats the best play. After thinking this through more, I'm not sure that call or fold isn't the best play. If we call, I'd imagine clubs would check through the turn, and we can just c/f turn unimproved.
If he checks through the turn, we can try river stealing on all non-club rivers.
The reason I say fold is cause I think we're a 2:1 dog against his shove calling range:
Board: Tc Jc 4d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.391% 34.39% 00.00% 5788 0.00 { KcQd }
Hand 1: 65.609% 65.61% 00.00% 11042 0.00 { 44, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac4c, JTs, 9c8c, JTo }
I can't really believe I'm saying fold, cause I never say fold, but I think this spot is really bad. I'm not even sure how happy we can be about calling and turning a straight with a club, nor will a K or Q necessarily put us ahead.
At first I didn't see why ISF said not to bet this flop, but I can see why now. Also anything that BB/UTG called with preflop probably isn't folding this board.
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