50nl barreling in 3b pot

villain is 16/13 (yes that's right) over ~400. BU ATS is 31%. preflop fold to 3b is 90%, "fold steal vs 3b from blinds" is 75%, raise/fold to 3b is 80%, fold to flop CB is 56%. fold to turn CB is 1/1

pre is marginal but he's folding so much and never adjusting i can live with it. flop CB is looking to fold out 66-TT, even nits seem to flat those to 3b's IP. sizing is probably too big. plan was to fire any ace turn, because i dont expect him to still have AK due to flatting pre (that may be dubious), and i get folds from KQ/QJs/any floats he may have (low FTCB). however i felt my flop bet would be close to +EV in a vacuum.

turn i decide to keep repping AA/KK/AK/JJ because i think, excluding 3 combos of JJ, his range is probably capped at KQ when he flats the flop, and i still have all the nut hands in my range. plus i pick up 5 outs against any stubborn KQ's or he may even still have QQ in his range and fold that.

too marginal? if so, fold pre? C/F flop? C/F turn?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($77.30)
Button ($50)
Hero (SB) ($63.25)
BB ($60.25)
UTG ($24.60)
MP ($115.05)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, 8
3 folds, Button bets $1.25, Hero raises to $4.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.25
Flop: ($9.50) J, K, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, Button calls $6.50
Turn: ($22.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $11

I'm c/f'ing flop vs this guy with this hand

I like the aggressive pf and flop play (c/f the flop i think is fine also) but it's time to give up on the turn.

Probably c/f somewhere, whatever he called the flop with is not folding the turn imo.

Even though he folds to 3bets a lot, BU vs SB is where people fold the least. I would choose hands where you aren't drawing dead when called, such as T8s for instance.

Yeah I think this hand is defo too weak in this spot. There's tons of stuff that flops so much better and we don't wanna be 3 betting like 40% here, even this guy will stop folding when it's BU vs BB.

As played We can prolly fold out 99-TT/AQ here by firing 2 assuming he peels the flop with these.

If he's peeling those 16 combos of AQ then KQ AJ JJ on the flop we're only folding out 16 of 16/42 combos i.e not enough by betting turn. If he peels 99 TT too then that's like 28/42 combos, but meh I'd probably just c/f the flop I guess, you just can't get enough fold on flop and turn combined I don't think. If you think he's really fit or fold and nitty and will just muck AQ and pocket pairs TT or worse to your c bet just one and done this board.

There's also a chance he's flatting QQ+ AK some amount pre since a 4 bet by him looks so insanely strong given the way he plays. This makes me wanna c/f flop even more.

fold pre 3bet something else

Originally Posted by baudib

whatever he called the flop with is not folding the turn imo.

obviously this doesn't mean it's a good or bad play, but he did snap-fold the turn. so i must have had some non-zero amount of fold equity.

and yeah i agree that every street, except preflop, is probably neutral EV at best. even preflop, as everyone has mentioned, isnt a good play. despite being clearly +EV. thanks all for the comments.

I've been wrong lots of times.

ha. who hasn't? i wasn't trying to "shut you down" or any bs of that nature. just saying - i must have had some small amout of FE. still probably not enough to warrant firing.

His mouse probably ran out of batteries.

He just had AQ and floated flop, that isn't enough of his range. You run good.