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50nl barreling in 3b pot

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  1. #1
    rpm's Avatar
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    Default 50nl barreling in 3b pot

    villain is 16/13 (yes that's right) over ~400. BU ATS is 31%. preflop fold to 3b is 90%, "fold steal vs 3b from blinds" is 75%, raise/fold to 3b is 80%, fold to flop CB is 56%. fold to turn CB is 1/1

    pre is marginal but he's folding so much and never adjusting i can live with it. flop CB is looking to fold out 66-TT, even nits seem to flat those to 3b's IP. sizing is probably too big. plan was to fire any ace turn, because i dont expect him to still have AK due to flatting pre (that may be dubious), and i get folds from KQ/QJs/any floats he may have (low FTCB). however i felt my flop bet would be close to +EV in a vacuum.

    turn i decide to keep repping AA/KK/AK/JJ because i think, excluding 3 combos of JJ, his range is probably capped at KQ when he flats the flop, and i still have all the nut hands in my range. plus i pick up 5 outs against any stubborn KQ's or he may even still have QQ in his range and fold that.

    too marginal? if so, fold pre? C/F flop? C/F turn?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
    CO ($77.30)
    Button ($50)
    Hero (SB) ($63.25)
    BB ($60.25)
    UTG ($24.60)
    MP ($115.05)
    Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, 8
    3 folds, Button bets $1.25, Hero raises to $4.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.25
    Flop: ($9.50) J, K, 2 (2 players)
    Hero bets $6.50, Button calls $6.50
    Turn: ($22.50) 8 (2 players)
    Hero bets $11
    Last edited by rpm; 10-11-2011 at 12:43 AM.

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