50nl - semibluff vs. shorty

Villain is 30/5/1

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($60.05)
CO ($53.55)
Hero ($49.25)
SB ($36.85)
BB ($13.30)
UTG ($64.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 5.
3 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) J, Q, T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12

So with a loose shortstack in the blinds, perhaps I should fold this preflop. That aside, how bad is this on the flop? I don't think he needs to fold that often for this to be +EV, but I haven't done the math.

I would raise less preflop and just bet/fold the flop tons smaller.

Alternative lines are welcome, but what I'm more interested is the merit of the hand as played. Should I have posted this in the strat forum?

id prefer a check. he's felting anything he paired and he is ahead. he folds if he missed.

Originally Posted by mixchange

id prefer a check. he's felting anything he paired and he is ahead. he folds if he missed.

% wise, how much of his range do you think calls the shove?

that board hits his range more than not.
ur 37% win this hand against his range on that flop.


I think this bet is pointless also, because villian prob isnt folding a Q or a J, you pretty much made your hand transparent imo.
and that bet is completly worthless.
if you hade a 3$ bet it would accomplish the same thing, but instead your throwing out an extra 9$ to do what a 3$ bet can do?

If villian calls 3$ you know this hit his range, if villian calls 9$ you know this hits his range... accomplishes the same thing, and on a board like this I dont like small flushes... so many possible draws for villian out there

Originally Posted by vaks

that board hits his range more than not.

Originally Posted by vaks

villian prob isnt folding a Q or a J

I disagree. What do you think his range is then, and what reason do you have to believe that he'll stack off with 2nd pair?

Because a 30/5 with 20BB is assumed retarded until proven otherwise. As played you validate some of his other likely mistakes, like calling with a straight or flush draw where he will still be a head.

Merits as played: he has to fold a lot, when he calls you have a pretty good chance of knocking out the short stack, and perhaps most importantly its a nice cheap way to get a spewy image.

Originally Posted by vaks

that bet is completely worthless.
if you made a 3$ bet it would accomplish the same thing

You are all missing the point. Perhaps I should have been more clear. The question here is whether the shove is +EV or -EV. I have since found the answer for this myself, and I would be happy to explain my reasoning, but first I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts about it.

you shouldnt be asking if a shove is + or - ev. you should be asking if other plays are more +EV than shoving. but, to answer your question, i think shoving is -ev. hes obviously bad, he has station tendencies (loose-passive shorties tend to be), he might be very likely to stack off with a Q, J, K, hearts. your hand sure sucks dick, and your bet-size puts more weight in your range towards draws than a smaller bet would.

don't raise to 4x preflop with 54 suited when the big blind is a calling station with a short stack

Originally Posted by bair

you shouldnt be asking if a shove is + or - ev. you should be asking if other plays are more +EV than shoving.

I'm well aware that pushing is not the optimal play here. I'm not interested in the hand itself per se, but a particular concept that I've been experimenting with recently.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

don't raise to 4x preflop with 54 suited when the big blind is a calling station with a short stack

I've already addressed this, but thanks.