50nl tough spot w/bottom set on drawy board 3 way

[sinister1]

SB is loose/passive pre and post flop. BB sat a few orbits ago and seems tagg. My image is tagg.

Bodog 6max BB is $.5

Hero is UTG ($65.80)
MP ($44.25)
CO ($42.50)
BTN ($50.50)
SB ($69.50)
BB ($73.30)

Preflop: Dealt to Hero
Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop ($5.25):
SB bets $5.25, BB raises to $10.50, Hero??

SB has played very passive post flop and won't donk lead like this with anything worse than A9 and maybe 87dd or JTdd but he usually check/calls with draws even if they are big. His range likely includes lots of 2 pair and straights. BB's minraise kinda threw me off because its such a draw heavy board but I can see him raising with a big draw or any of the obvious 2 pair+ hands.

[Benoso]

You have to jam it here I think. Either villain could so easily have a draw and you're only dominated by an overset. Even if they are drawing, you have redraws.

if he flopped a straight you're getting it in with like 35% equity
btw holy shit I'm good, I typed in 35% before checking pokerstove
Board: 9d 6d 8c
Hand 0: 34.899% { 6c6h }
Hand 1: 65.101% { Ts7s }


let's say you get it in 3 way, the nuts is the worst hand

Board: 9d 6d 8c
Hand 0: 35.437% { 6c6h }
Hand 1: 26.412% { Ts7s }
Hand 2: 38.151% { JdTd }

[TonyB73]

I think a higher set is a big possibility too - I find that preflop flats from the blinds can often be pocket pairs, so 88 and 99 are definitely in both their ranges.

That said, there's enough overpairs (TT, JJ), top pair / two-pair type hands, and draws in their ranges that I'm probably still getting it in there every time.

[bigspenda73]

ya 88/99 have to bee in someones range here, don't be a 40yr. old live pro who puts ppl on exactly 1 hand all the time.

ya 88/99 have to bee in someones range here, don't be a 40yr. old live pro who puts ppl on exactly 1 hand all the time.

obv, I'm trying to show that getting it in against the nuts is not too bad as long as we're not getting it in against an overset

[bode]

$23.50, call shove

[sinister1]

Here is what I got when I stoved this hand:

Board: 9d 6d 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.260% 30.80% 00.46% 565091 8502.00 { 6c6h }
Hand 1: 26.020% 24.05% 01.97% 441382 36056.50 { 88+, A9s, Ad7d, JdTd, T7s, 98s, 8d7d, 86s, 75s, A9o, T7o, 98o, 86o, 75o }
Hand 2: 42.720% 40.75% 01.97% 747808 36056.50 { TT-88, Ad7d, JdTd, T7s, 98s, 8d7d, 75s }

This is pretty much how I felt in the moment, that I should be good against the SB but the BB would likely have me in bad shape. I do not fold sets on the flop, and rarely consider it, but this situation REALLLY made me want to fold the hand. Note that if we take TT and T7s (which I think would hold the least weight) out of BB's range our equity drops to 24%. Do we really want to get it in on the flop with 24%-31% equity??

BB definitely doesn't have the nuts only
if I do a realistic range on him, I get
Board: 9d 6d 8c
Hand 0: 52.852% { 6c6h }
Hand 1: 47.148% { 99-88, Ad7d, JdTd, T7s, 98s, 86s+, 76s, 98o }

those are hands that have tons of equity against an overpair