50NL: TPTK vs nit facing huge action

Some reads on villain:
Seems nit for SH 17/13 - low aggresion. Folds BB to steal 70%.
3bets 4%


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($69.39)
SB ($93.48)
BB ($69.98)
UTG ($196.44)
Hero (MP) ($50.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, K
1 fold, Hero bets $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) A, 8, 9 (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero raises $9, BB raises $17, Hero?


Putting possible hands on pokerstove gives me this:

16,830 games 0.005 secs 3,366,000 games/sec

Board: As 8d 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.412% 49.06% 00.36% 8256 60.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 50.588% 50.23% 00.36% 8454 60.00 { 99-88, AQs, AdJd, AdTd, JdTd, AQo }


However, is this guy that aggressive with AQ here? I think he calls the raise on flop, no?

I think you gave this guy way too wide of a range and the only AQ I can see here is AdQd. given his line I think he's got hisself a set or TP+NFD combo. Any idea what his donking range is? What was your reasoning for raising the flop and what was the plan in case you got raised?

Originally Posted by deucesomething

Any idea what his donking range is? What was your reasoning for raising the flop and what was the plan in case you got raised?

Yah this, you need a plan. Especially in a spot like this where its very likely you'll either get a fold or 3bet.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Yah this, you need a plan. Especially in a spot like this where its very likely you'll either get a fold or 3bet.

This

Also I'd bet smaller preflop most likely depending on SB

Thanks guys!

On the hand, my plan was to make villain pay for lower Top pairs + FD and fold to this kind of aggression. I posted the hand to see what you guys thought about ...

@griffey24: Don't you think villain would call with AQ/AJ/AT + FD type hands?

Originally Posted by jimmy44

Thanks guys!

On the hand, my plan was to make villain pay for lower Top pairs + FD and fold to this kind of aggression. I posted the hand to see what you guys thought about ...

@griffey24: Don't you think villain would call with AQ/AJ/AT + FD type hands?

It's possible. Though he'd be way more likely to lead with 9T,999,TTT,AT,A9,QJdd,JTdd,78dd (all of which will 3bet after you raise).

I don't see why he wouldn't just c/c with top pair + FD, he has top pair so doesn't need to bluff, and can bluff catch your continuation bets.

I meant that villain would c/c with those hands (Top pair + FD) so we have to raise his donk bet, right?

Originally Posted by jimmy44

I meant that villain would c/c with those hands (Top pair + FD) so we have to raise his donk bet, right?

This is backwards isn't it? If you assume he will c/c with those hands, that's even LESS combo's that we're theoretically ahead of vs his donking range.

Instead of having a bunch of top pair hands plus draws that we beat, now we're only left with hands that are folding, and 3betting us that are ahead or have a combo draw. Maybe a random AQ once in a while, but putting all AQ combos in your range is prob pretty optimistic.

Idk wtf villain has but I'd feel like an idiot for doing anything but folding.

yeah i don't think raising the flop is terrible or anything, but now it's a fold. Generally speaking I don't mind just calling down here - we're not gonna get it in that great vs draws and it's pretty rare that a tight player is going to donk-lead/call with worse here very often.

Originally Posted by griffey24

This is backwards isn't it? If you assume he will c/c with those hands, that's even LESS combo's that we're theoretically ahead of vs his donking range.

Instead of having a bunch of top pair hands plus draws that we beat, now we're only left with hands that are folding, and 3betting us that are ahead or have a combo draw. Maybe a random AQ once in a while, but putting all AQ combos in your range is prob pretty optimistic.

Yes, I got messed up here ... I forgot that villain lead.

Originally Posted by Ravageur

yeah i don't think raising the flop is terrible or anything, but now it's a fold. Generally speaking I don't mind just calling down here - we're not gonna get it in that great vs draws and it's pretty rare that a tight player is going to donk-lead/call with worse here very often.

So you think a tight played would rarely donk-lead/call with FD?
Maybe I'm too optimistic ...

Thanks again guys!

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Idk wtf villain has but I'd feel like an idiot for doing anything but folding.

+1, although i have seen ppl do this with combo draws before