50NL v/s lagtard: ugly river decision

Villain is 45/35/7.0 over just 20 hands
Can we fold the river here? Why or why not? What does he bet that we beat?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer Game#20240006708

Hero ($52.55)
BB ($31.15)
UTG ($7.75)
UTG+1 ($32.40)
CO ($9.35)
BTN ($70.40)

Dealt to Hero JA

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4, fold, call,

FLOP ($8.50) 7A4

Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5,

TURN ($18.50) 7A4A

check, BTN bets $11.50, Hero calls $11.50,

RIVER ($41.50) 7A4A2

check, BTN bets $49.90, Hero ??

You seriously underrepped your hand starting with the turn, so you're obligated to call, specifically because he's a laggtard (if he is in fact a laggtard - more on that momentarily). In answer to your question (what does he bet that we beat) - AT, A9, A8, A6, A5, 56, pocket pairs that he's turning into bluffs, air.

I don't really understand what you were doing on the turn, by the way. Why are you check/calling with trips against this guy?

I'd also caution you against fashioning reads from 20 hand samples. Specific prior hand histories would probably reveal more than stats, given the sample size.

My hand value didn't really change from flop to turn. What beat me still beats me, and what's behind will pretty much fold and I don't want that to happen.

I don't see how he can have A9- here, it's a 3bet pot, and most probably if he didn't fold PF he's very likely to fold Ax after the cbet.

At the river, he can easily shove flopped sets that now rivered a boat or AK/AQ. I feel I can only beat air here, I don't really see him shoving with very little equity.

If that 45/35 is anywhere near legit - and like I said, I'd prefer to see prior hand histories, not just numbers over 20 hands - his ranges are wider than you think on all streets, despite the actions that you think are narrowing his range. True laggtards don't fold to 3-bets much. They don't always divide themselves neatly into folding when behind and betting when ahead.

Your comment about Ax is weird to me. You don't want him folding Ax - you're ahead of at least half of those hands.

This is a pretty weird hand. If you're confident enough in AJ to 3-bet it for value against him you should be betting it all the way. I really don't think you should be worrying about sets or 2 pair turned boat because he always raises 2 pair on that flop and almost always a set.

The river sucks but he's very often going to be shoving his flush draw on the flop if he's the type to semi-bluff it when checked to on the turn in a 3-bet pot. So that lessens the likelyhood of that too.

Just call and hope you don't get shown A2 or something dumb like that. Your hand is so underepped it's possible he's probably trying to push you off QQ with garbage.

Q: If we're playing our hand (this part of our range) like this on the turn and considering a river fold, does it make a lot of sense to 3bet pre?

Originally Posted by minSim

Q: If we're playing our hand (this part of our range) like this on the turn and considering a river fold, does it make a lot of sense to 3bet pre?

None whatsoever.

Originally Posted by KillsAids

I don't see how he can have A9- here, it's a 3bet pot, and most probably if he didn't fold PF he's very likely to fold Ax after the cbet.

well seeing how your 3bet is grossly undersized and the fact that you're probably cbetting close to 100% on this flop, I cannot disagree more with your above statement.

Yeah, you really have to get into the thinking bigspenda is doing here. If you aren't, you'll have a hard time surviving 50NL because you'll only play your cards and generally do not get far enough into applying relative hand strength.

Pwned.