5NL prop bet with Chopper (Updated 07/18/08)

My friend bet me $500 that I couldn't make $1200 at 5NL 6max in 100,000 hands. Gonna be close.

That's one helluva winrate you've gotta keep up over the next 50k hands...


...or is that low for 5NL?

GL!

Not sure what the average is down at this level. I started out a little slow but have been crushing it for 16bb/100 since 02/01/08.

That's impressive discipline man. I can't help but move up as soon as I'm rolled for it. 100k hands at 5NL...wow

It does get boring sometimes but I also have a couple 25NL tables going as well to ease the pain.

dont worry, dozer, my $500 is as good as earned!!!

he cant keep it up. if he hits one 20k stretch of only 5 ptbb/100, the money is mine. he would have to run over 20/100 to make that much ground up.

(but, its a good start...lol)

i figure i can earn well over $500 in the time he has to spend at 5NL to log 100 friggin k hands!!! and, it keeps him off my tables.

CHA-CHING!

Care to double the wager???

Hah.

This is f'n funny guys.

gogogogogo!

we'll handle this privately...lol

oh, and my friend is bigger than your friend. just remember to tell your kneecaps that when you welch on me.

Handling it privately is ghey. Please post everything in this thread.

Originally Posted by kmind

Handling it privately is ghey. Please post everything in this thread.

QFT.

*dramasterbates*

Double the bet to $1000 chopper? Don't be a sally!

Playing that many hands at 5nl is -EV.

Originally Posted by grnydrowave2

Playing that many hands at 5nl is -EV.

I play 25NL, this was just a prop bet.

rly awesome prop bet, plz keep us updated on details!

py...take a poll.

should we dbl or nuttin? lets let others spend our hard earned, heavily raked, nitty winnings...

or poll...

can py make it? or what winrate will he post?

something.

oh...and are you planning to ship me $499 and tell me to "keep da change?" cause thats just sick.

I am for doubling the bet if you are. You are the one who thinks the variance will hit me sooner or later. Who out there thinks I can sustain this bb/100 for another 50K hands???

i think chopper is the favorite in this bet for sure, but only because poker is unusually cruel at the absolute perfect wrong times

Is 100k hands of 5nl + $500 +ev compared to just playing 100k hands of 25nl (and prob moving up at least once)?

Originally Posted by Pythonic

Who out there thinks I can sustain this bb/100 for another 50K hands???

I'm tempted to throw down $500 against you t'be honest

It can be done.


I looked up what hands we've played together, Pythonic. No fireworks. hmmm :P

LAWL

this thread is great

GL mang

so easy, a caveman can do it

That'd take me a couple months to do. I think I'd go insane at the end. I love these prop bets though, gl op.

Damn speedcake, I didn't know you were a FTR member. I think we should have had some fireworks but I layed down that AK hand when I think you had a set.

no offense to speed, but 50k hands at 13 and 15k at 17 is quite a difference.

i made the bet because i dont think its even possible to run 20+ over a big sample. i think the luck factor of being dealt KK v AA and set over set situations is enough to keep otherwise flawless play under a 20. you only need one cooler stretch for it to be too much to overcome.

You don't have to run a 20 to make $1200 at this level over 100,000 hands. It's closer to 12. I've ran a 16 since Feb (26,000 hands) so I'm not worried.

Originally Posted by Chopper

oh...and are you planning to ship me $499 and tell me to "keep da change?" cause thats just sick.

I think you got it backwards. After I win I will give you $1 back and tell you to keep da change. The look on your face will be priceless.

so do you want some extra action against pythonic?

wow. if i had "bookie training 101" i could hedge myself totally and just keep the "juice."

who's in? j/k i am probably just standing pat here, but i would like to know if others get involved. lol.

seriously, py, this thread has enough interest in your "penny run" to put a poll on it and see if you cant prove the WORLD wrong. hell, you could make some good cash on it to...should you get lucky enough. lol.

Hey you were the one who told me it could not be done. I just love proving people wrong. So we are doubling our bet correct? $1000 straight up?

py, post your stats off of last night. you may get a lot of action AGAINST you.

here, i'll post a hand from us at the same table last night...

BTN is crazy mad. 60/60 at one point over 70ish hand sample. HERO (me) only sat in because of seeing BTN and couldnt refuse the easy cash.

SB is our real "hero" here. and, got stacked for the first time in about 15 sessions...no lie. this was more a "refund" from getting a pp cracked by him a couple months ago.

funny thing is SB got stacked again a couple hands later, and called me "bad luck." lol.

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($6.23)
CO ($4.90)
BTN ($51.10)
SB (pythonic) ($7.93)
Hero (chopper) ($8.23)

Pre-flop: ($0.07, 5 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.15, SB calls $0.13, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.45, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $0.25, SB raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, BTN calls $0.35

Turn: ($2.25, 3 players)
SB bets $1.30, Hero raises to $3, BTN goes all-in $50.35, SB goes all-in $5.88, Hero goes all-in $4.48

River: ($67.26, 3 players)

Final Pot: $24.39
BTN shows:
SB shows:
Hero shows:

BTN wins $42.87 ( lost -$8.23 )
Hero wins $23.19 ( won +$14.96 )
SB lost -$7.93

I knew someone had the straight but since it was for a triple up I had to call.

you know EXACTLY who had the straight...and you got confirmation on the turn real fast. you just got forced in thinking BTN was complete dead money, and got a bit shocked he actually flopped something, too. hell, i wasnt giving him credit for that. he was so bad, he raised pf much smaller than usual...making me think he had a better pf hand than Q9.

but, whatevs. you BOTH got what you deserved...j/k

I wouldn't stay down at this level if I were you. My bb/100 might increase a lil bit more.

Originally Posted by Chopper

but, whatevs. you BOTH got what you deserved

This thread keeps getting funnier. It almost makes me wanna play some 5NL to see if I can stack pyth...

Originally Posted by Chopper

no offense to speed, but 50k hands at 13 and 15k at 17 is quite a difference.

i made the bet because i dont think its even possible to run 20+ over a big sample. i think the luck factor of being dealt KK v AA and set over set situations is enough to keep otherwise flawless play under a 20. you only need one cooler stretch for it to be too much to overcome.

oh no worries, no offense taken. I agree with you that over such a large sample it will be tough for PY to win the bet. But he sure is gonna do some damage trying, lol. And that's all that really matters. :P

the "bet" is in some serious jeapordy at this point. i still think my money is as good as doubled, but he is doing much better than anticipated...and he has been a double-digit guy for a lot longer than this at 10NL and below.

my premise was it being 5NL donkeys that call with all sorts of trash that gets "lucky" and the fact that the variance can be ridiculous at 6max. he was a FR player before. oh, and the fact i didnt think ANYBODY could stick with this over a 100k hand stretch. i thought he'd work out a "deal" and quit short of 100k.

not to divulge too much, but he ran like ass last night over 3500 hands over 7ish hours trying to get "back to even." he made it, but he burned a lot of hands with that cooler he was on.

a couple more of those, and i will start spending the money in advance. lol.

c'mon maniacs that push gutters and hit them...daddy needs a new pair of shoes!

all i've really done is convert a nit to 6max games!!!

...

Only got in 400 hands in over the weekend. Dropped $12 (played way too loose and just didn't feel like playing.
My 46 day winning streak has finally come to an end. Time to regain that focus and start a new streak along with swiping Chopper's dough.

gogogogogo!

Post updates at 10k intervals for fans of this thread such as myself

I follow micro prop bets like euros follow soccer.

Originally Posted by speedcake

Originally Posted by Chopper

no offense to speed, but 50k hands at 13 and 15k at 17 is quite a difference.

i made the bet because i dont think its even possible to run 20+ over a big sample. i think the luck factor of being dealt KK v AA and set over set situations is enough to keep otherwise flawless play under a 20. you only need one cooler stretch for it to be too much to overcome.

oh no worries, no offense taken. I agree with you that over such a large sample it will be tough for PY to win the bet. But he sure is gonna do some damage trying, lol. And that's all that really matters. :P

Think about this. If about 10 sharks just played 5NL and 10NL exclusively and never moved up think how much money we would take out of the 25NL-100NL player's pockets.

I think your giving fish too much credit for good bankroll management...fortunately

Good luck staying sane thru the last half.

...staying sane?...

he will. and, i attest the 46 day streak. it was a thing of beauty. but, i'm also glad DiMaggio finally struck out, too.

Originally Posted by Chopper

...staying sane?...

he will. and, i attest the 46 day streak. it was a thing of beauty. but, i'm also glad DiMaggio finally struck out, too.

Wow, what a perfect line.

only just found this thread and it is epic!

I'm a bit suprised that you're gambling $500 on a 25nl BR but whatevs. BR management ftl

Badgers, I play 25NL exclusively but I am double rolled for 50NL.

sorry my reply sounded too pompous anyway.

i just meant to say goot luck. I can't help but root for pythonic cos i like to see ppl do well at poker, sorry chopper.

no probs you LAGtard.

j/k

These guys are disgustingly bad. Anyone want to guess what villian was holding?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($8.67)
BB ($4.85)
Hero ($7.21)
MP ($5.91)
CO ($2.10)
Button ($3.14)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7, A.
Hero calls $0.05, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.15) J, K, T (3 players)
SB bets $0.05, BB calls $0.05, Hero calls $0.05.

Turn: ($0.30) 4 (3 players)
SB bets $0.05, BB calls $0.05, Hero calls $0.05.

River: ($0.45) Q (3 players)
SB bets $0.05, BB raises to $1, Hero raises to $7.06, SB folds, BB calls $3.70 (All-In).

Final Pot: $9.90

K9

your balls...and a 9.

9/4 hearts, lol

Made a nice little run last night. Up 5 BIs after 900 hands. SpeedCake was on like 4 of my tables while I was wreacking havoc but we didn't have any big pots together.

lol ya, I was having a rough time though.

Originally Posted by speedcake

lol ya, I was having a rough time though.

c'mon, speed. i play one session with him in 3 months and stack his ass in about 20 minutes. you play a couple hours with him, and come away empty?

jk

it just isn't in the stars!

Originally Posted by Chopper

Originally Posted by speedcake

lol ya, I was having a rough time though.

c'mon, speed. i play one session with him in 3 months and stack his ass in about 20 minutes. you play a couple hours with him, and come away empty?

jk

Cmon, I shoved only for pot odds. It's not like I knew what you were holding.

stack job is a stack job is a stack job.

quit your crying you spewy microstakes player.

only read a few posts, but I can't help to think that you're a terrible prop bettor...

like, say you think you can win this bet 75% of the time, and on average, you make $1,000 in the 100k hands.

is $1250 EV really worth playing 100k hands, compared to the alternatives?

I am not crying but I also didn't brag when I stacked you on 3 different occasions. Congrats, but you're still down 3-1.

Originally Posted by Lukie

only read a few posts, but I can't help to think that you're a terrible prop bettor...

like, say you think you can win this bet 75% of the time, and on average, you make $1,000 in the 100k hands.

is $1250 EV really worth playing 100k hands, compared to the alternatives?

Lukie,

First let me tell you that I completely respect you as a poster on here and look up to you. I'm not sure if you read far enough down to see that I play 25NL at the same time. The wager is also up to $1000 now so making $2200 total by playing 100K of stress free poker on the side aint all that bad IMO. If I choose to do this wager again then Chopper will have to up the ante because of long term variance.

fair enough, didn't see where you changed it to $1000. I still think it's a little one-sided to assume you win this bet everytime, heck, i even thought 75% was generous.

If you ran at even 5ptbb/100 for 100k hands at NL25, you'd be up $2,500...

Originally Posted by Pythonic

I am not crying but I also didn't brag when I stacked you on 3 different occasions. Congrats, but you're still down 3-1.

yeah, reload plz

Originally Posted by Lukie

fair enough, didn't see where you changed it to $1000. I still think it's a little one-sided to assume you win this bet everytime, heck, i even thought 75% was generous.

If you ran at even 5ptbb/100 for 100k hands at NL25, you'd be up $2,500...

Yep I think 75% is way too generous myself but it's all about taking Chopper's money and I needed to do something which he thought was impossible to have him put up the money.

Originally Posted by Chopper

Originally Posted by Pythonic

I am not crying but I also didn't brag when I stacked you on 3 different occasions. Congrats, but you're still down 3-1.

yeah, reload plz

I'm not the one who "hit and ran"

i was trained by Eupho. what can i say?

but seriously py, you know our boy acid_rush left the table, and thats why i did. no sense in sticking around on a table full of nits that a LAG has beat into submission right after he leaves. target/fish gone...chopper gone. pretty simple table selection, imo. not "hit and run."

Whatever makes you feel better.

Ran into 4K hands of a little variance but bounced back nicely. 40K hands to go and right on pace. The chopster gonna be sweating it very soon.

for some reason I've been requested to post this hand, everyone can now laugh at me:



$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ryder_dw ($2.81)
UTG+1 IOU1GALAXY ($4.91)
CO Pythonic ($10.51)
BTN flylow76 ($4.73)
SB ALËX ($4.44)
BB Hero ($11.88)

Pre-flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is BB
ryder_dw calls $0.05, 1 fold, Pythonic raises to $0.35, flylow76 calls $0.35, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, ryder_dw folds

Flop: ($1.12, 3 players)
Hero checks, Pythonic bets $0.60, flylow76 calls $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.92, 3 players)
Hero checks, Pythonic checks, flylow76 checks

River: ($2.92, 3 players)
Hero bets $1.50, Pythonic says "muther", Hero says "sexy odds", 2 folds, Hero says "you suck"

Final Pot: $2.92

Hero wins $4.32 ( won +$1.87 )
flylow76 lost -$0.95
ryder_dw lost -$0.05
Pythonic lost -$0.95

Thanks Speed.

np. I only called pre cause it was you.....








and the other guy called in front of me





and I'm a fish

Still cannot believe i folded my bullets but it was a great read.

winrate's dropping. and, its only 60k.