99 In need of a better turn plan?

I'm not sure about this. My turn line might be okay but it feels somewhat like spew here as I only get called by worse in the form of flushdraws or the occassional 77/67s. Can I just c/f this turn instead? Feels weird given the amount of draws in his range that bet the turn. Think river is a really easy fold.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 113.69 BB (VPIP: 30.66, PFR: 27.01, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 140)
BB: 243.06 BB (VPIP: 25.33, PFR: 14.67, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 80)
Hero (UTG): 103.5 BB
MP: 114.57 BB (VPIP: 20.39, PFR: 13.82, 3Bet Preflop: 14.06, Hands: 154)
CO: 107.21 BB (VPIP: 29.10, PFR: 24.63, 3Bet Preflop: 7.33, Hands: 417)
BTN: 102.47 BB (VPIP: 27.50, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 41)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9

Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 8 6 5
Hero bets 6.65 BB, MP calls 6.65 BB, fold

Turn: (23.8 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero bets 14 BB, MP calls 14 BB

River: (51.8 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, MP bets 30 BB, fold

MP wins 49.47 BB

I'd like to c/r river but since stacks are too shallow overbet jam lead could be fun as well.

I think betting 14bb into 24bb on the turn is going to lose you the pot in some fashion an overwhelming majority of the time.

Turn bet is fine, otherwise you don't know where you're at and you want to not give free cards so easily. A check can be good too for pot control, interesting spot. I think I check personally. As played have to c/c river.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I'd like to c/r river but since stacks are too shallow overbet jam lead could be fun as well.

Looks like a bad spot to bluff to me.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Looks like a bad spot to bluff to me.

What nut hand do you expect us to run into here?

Originally Posted by surviva316

What nut hand do you expect us to run into here?

He doesn't need to have the nuts to call. And if you turn a spot like this into a bluff as one of your standard plays, you're gonna be bluffing way too much. And if you would normally not bluff here, sure it may work, but why would you? I'd pick a better spot.

We have 7 combos of FH and every imaginable combo of flushes, and he's a nit facing an overbet shove. He'll tank with his ~3 combos of nut flushes (if he even flats turn with them), and fold everything else.

Like P4s says, I'd much rather c/shove if there were enough left behind to do it because we can win at showdown if it goes check-check, but given that's not an option, we're pretty close to the bottom of our range. Do we cbet the flop with AcKx?

So you would run a bluff here, rarely, sometimes, often, always?

I'll say that we are looked up so infrequently here that while never overshoving the nuts here makes us technically more unbalanced, it reduces the number of times that we run this line, giving us a perceived balanced range. So if we only shove with 7 combos here, and we have 7 combos of nuts, and villain is never going to look us up and note that we're doing this with a bluff, then it doesn't matter what those 7 combos of hands are. They could be napkins, and villain will give us credit for a balanced range.

TT+ is too good to bluff here, so we're only bluffing this hand and worse. This isn't necessarily the dead bottom of my range because I might barrel with AcXx or T9dd or something regardless of whether or not it's correct because I don't play perfect. However, I also don't always notice how capped villain's range is quickly enough and come to the idea of overbet shoving quickly enough to do it without drawing suspicion, so let's say those two factors cancel each other out.

We also don't always bet the turn with 99, so let's say all-in-all we're bluffing here with like 3-6 combos. If the number is 6, then we need to have 16 nut combos for this to be perfectly balanced. I think the number is lower than 6, though, and I also don't think we need to be all that balanced against a nitty player, especially since it's gonna take this type of player FOREVER to catch onto this since we almost never get to showdown.

So to answer your question, we're running this bluff enough to be exploited but infrequently enough that we shouldn't expect villain to properly adjust. Which, in theory, is the perfect amount.

What I mean is, would you personally run this bluff if you ended up in this spot? Or are you trying to rationalize what p4s meant? Even though I haven't read many posts by him, I can tell p4s has a very aggressive playstyle, and his mind always goes to "can I bluff villain off his hand?" which I have found is typical for higher stakes players. However bluffing is the hardest part in poker. And running bluffs when you don't have the accompanying value lines is bad too. Sure I can imagine there is a playstyle that will use this spot to bluff, but it's not necessary imo.

I mean, it's hard to say since I haven't played anything that closely resembles these games in over two years (been playing SSNL and microstakes online since). I can say that back then, my favorite, most overused and most easily exploitable play of mine was running big bluffs on capped ranges (especially deep). This isn't a brag or anything because it didn't end well for me.

It wasn't my first reaction when reading this hand, and in live time, I wouldn't always necessarily think of turning an overpair into a bluff 100bbs deep . . . which, as I alluded to in my other post, is a good reason to do it when we think of it. So I don't know what you mean by playstyles that can use this as a bluff, since P4s (ie: a player who frequently runs untraditional lines as bluffs) should be the player type who is least inclined to run these lines.

I also don't know what you mean that it's bad to run bluffs when you don't have the accompanying value lines. How are value hands not in our perceived range here? I think this looks exactly like nut flush+ to villain. As I already pointed out, NOT having value hands in our actual range (just the perception of value hands) makes bluffing here more sustainable, not less so.

As for it not being necessary, I don't know what that means on a literal philosophical level. Depending on your definition of playing profitable poker, it's not necessary to value bet AA in the majority of situations where we say it's best to. Hell, it's not necessary to play poker at all. There are certain basic assumptions we go on here when we give advice on how you "should" play a hand.

What I mean with accompanying value lines is how, for example, Durrrr runs bluffs betting 2-3x pot, so he uses this for value also. Your value lines (obviously) have to be the same as your bluff lines. So where and how you bluff has to do with your playstyle.

Don't see why we're trying to run a bluff here. Seems like a fine double barrel and c/f river.

Well because we can never win by checking against a competent player and our range isn't capped in any way.

My problem with bluffing this river is that although our range contains all the nizzles and his probably doesn't, I wouldn't be surprised at all to get looked up by any flush and even 8x sometimes just because 100NL regs are generally huge stations and disbelieve each other always. I have a very value orientated game which seems to do well vs this as long as I have an aggro image from 3 betting a good bit, and looking a like a fellow dick waver. Defo need to find some more spots to bluff though.

@Deanglow, are you advocating betting more? It seems we do lose this pot a huge amount of the time by c/f river after this bet, maybe we can c/c on a blank?

If you count bluffs, then this:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 5d8c6c8d3c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 68.95% 68.95% 0.00% { 9d9c }
MP3 31.05% 31.05% 0.00% { 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 5h5s, 5h5c, 5s5c, QTs+, JTs, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, Qh9h, Qs9s, Jh9h, Js9s, Th9h, Ts9s, Ah8h, As8s, Kh8h, Ks8s, Ac7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, QTo+, JTo }

If just value range, this:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 5d8c6c8d3c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 17.68% 16.91% 0.77% { 9d9c }
MP3 82.32% 81.55% 0.77% { TT+, 77, 9h9s, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 5h5s, 5h5c, 5s5c, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ah8h, As8s, Kh8h, Ks8s, Ac7c, Ad6d, Ah6h, As6s, Ah5h, As5s, Ac5c, Ac4c }

I'd fold

Originally Posted by Carroters

My problem with bluffing this river is that although our range contains all the nizzles and his probably doesn't, I wouldn't be surprised at all to get looked up by any flush and even 8x sometimes just because 100NL regs are generally huge stations and disbelieve each other always.

Yeah I probably wouldn't make this play against a random 100nl reg whose game I wasn't familiar with. I'd make it against myself though.

How come MP has 3-bet higher than PFR?

MP maybe make flash on the river or maybe he had full house, who knows.

Originally Posted by STILL_mkd

MP maybe make flash on the river or maybe he had full house, who knows.

Because he's 3-bet a higher % of the time than he's open raised. 3-bets are preflop raises but that's not what PFR refers to man. Fucks sakes. I'm drunk.

Originally Posted by Carroters

Because he's 3-bet a higher % of the time than he's open raised. 3-bets are preflop raises but that's not what PFR refers to man. Fucks sakes. I'm drunk.

Hey! You're not allowed to get drunk on America day! That's our job!

Hand would have been played perfectly had you c/r river

agree w/ everything p4s said itt. not sure you guys see where he's coming from

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Hand would have been played perfectly had you c/r river

agree w/ everything p4s said itt. not sure you guys see where he's coming from

You don't think there's lots of hands, even if they aren't the nuts, he will call with?

you dont think we credibly rep all boats and flushes with this line?

I think it's a good value line when you have a boat, because we can expect villain to have a strong range (in absolute terms, not necessarily relative) so he will be inclined to call.

I showed this hand to my buddy, he's in the top 100 of Belgian live poker winnings for what that's worth, he has a very aggressive and bluffy playstyle, and he called it bizarre. Idk. I'm interested in finding out why you guys like this spot though.

Originally Posted by jackvance

I think it's a good value line when you have a boat, because we can expect villain to have a strong range (in absolute terms, not necessarily relative) so he will be inclined to call.

I showed this hand to my buddy, he's in the top 100 of Belgian live poker winnings for what that's worth, he has a very aggressive and bluffy playstyle, and he called it bizarre. Idk. I'm interested in finding out why you guys like this spot though.

What hands are you bluffing this river with? Or would you only ever play a hand like this for pure value?

Originally Posted by jackvance

I think it's a good value line when you have a boat, because we can expect villain to have a strong range (in absolute terms, not necessarily relative) so he will be inclined to call.

I showed this hand to my buddy, he's in the top 100 of Belgian live poker winnings for what that's worth, he has a very aggressive and bluffy playstyle, and he called it bizarre. Idk. I'm interested in finding out why you guys like this spot though.

what is bizarre about this line? we maximize value with flushes+boats by c/r'ing and 99 is about the top of our c/f range therefore we should c/jam (maybe bet some flushes instead of c/r but you get the idea)

I think cf turn?

Yeah I don't think c/f turn is too bad, but I seem to be turning into a folding machine post flop these days. As for the river I'm still not convinced a 20/14 at 100NL will fold any flushes for this price regardless of how nutted our range might be in this spot.