99 overpair to flop - turn pairs board - i think he's fos

[daven]

villain is 21-19, 4% 3-bet, 40% Turn aggression frequency
He is hyper-aggro postflop. He saw me stack KK<AA twice in the last ten minutes and probably thinks i'm wounded/ready to fold. I probably do look as though i'm playing tight-ish?

He knows i 3-bet 88+AJ+air vs his steal and probably thinks my calling range is scs/monsters/suited aces
and he's right, 22-TT are rarely in my calling range here. I'm looking a bunch like a big draw i guess. So my initial thought that if he had a monster he'd probably call turn for value is probably way off?
level wars confuse me, so if in doubt?

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Napalm1998 ($52.25)
UTG+1 Krovikhan ($69.69)
CO Dimilicious ($90.75)
BTN Ch1p1T ($111.60)
SB tha_holder ($181.30)
BB Hero ($56.77)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is BB
3 folds, Ch1p1T raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, Ch1p1T bets $3.03, Hero raises to $8, Ch1p1T calls $4.97

Turn: ($20.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $12.50, Ch1p1T goes all-in $101.60, $34.27 to Hero ($34.27)?

villain has like JJ+ and decided to call flop and shove a safe turn

[Galapogos]

What do you think he calls your flop raise with?

[daven]

What do you think he calls your flop raise with?

anything in his range that beats a naked draw

What do you think he calls your flop raise with?

anything in his range that beats a naked draw

so pocket 3s and better?

[meeloche]

I wouldn't c/r this hand on this board and I wouldn't expect him to be floating your c/r light enough to get it in on this turn.

[mixchange]

yes your hand looks frequently like a draw to him, but do you understand the reasons why he is now trying to get it in on what to him is a safe turn? fold

[daven]

ok, i was wondering if i was being results orientated when i called and he showed an underpair so i stacked him. Sounds like I was....
thanks

[Sir Pawnalot]

Sick line by villain, sick call by you.

What is villains FE here? How often do you fold here?

IMO this is an incidence of two great players creating beautiful art.

Or maybe he just OMG he has a draw I push! Anyways it is a beautiful hand which made my morning.

[bigspenda73]

flop is bad, why like 99% of the poker world doesn't realize this is beyond me.

just saw it was btn vs bb, still bad, not as bad as I had first glanced, but still think it's def. the wrong action.

[Sir Pawnalot]

Spenda- This is a genius move. He perfectly rfepresents adraw and makes superstar call on turn. This is pure greatness!!

[Luco]

...your new shipment of weed arrived then sir P?

[Sir Pawnalot]

Oh yah!

Seeds from Holland.

flop is bad, why like 99% of the poker world doesn't realize this is beyond me.

just saw it was btn vs bb, still bad, not as bad as I had first glanced, but still think it's def. the wrong action.

what do you think about leading flop, some people like leading low flops if villain checks those behind with overs

[bigspenda73]

meh ppl are such cbet monkeys I usually just lead air

[Parasurama]

def. agree about not c/r this flop, just curious spenda what would your c/r range be (if any) on this flop?

[Marshall28]

You're confused because you don't know why you c/r the flop or what your range generally consists of or what other people may think it may consist of. You created the leveling war, this guy just has a boat or an 8. When you start to get confused, the correct play is probably to wait until you're more sure.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I'd lead the flop and as played call turn. C/r is very bad.

[griffey24]

I wouldn't c/r this hand on this board and I wouldn't expect him to be floating your c/r light enough to get it in on this turn.

This is purely image related. I feel like this type of board IS getting floated a lot by overs. 56, 67, A3, A5 and all diamonds might call flop. Hands like AQ/AK might not believe the c/r on this board and float.

I think a ton of his made hand range is going to flat the turn after the 8 pairs. I think his shoving range is mostly FD's he has himself or some other draw nonsense.

If I play the hand this way, I'm calling the turn since I think his range for value shoving is narrow (mostly 8x, even that might call sometimes). If he called turn, I might c and re-evaluate river.

[Renton]

flop is fine, check turn

[Renton]

i slightly prefer leading the flop as well, but i don't understand the flop c/r hate. He calls with any pair that he bets, and with overs and gutters a shitload. Its not a bad play at all.

[griffey24]

i slightly prefer leading the flop as well, but i don't understand the flop c/r hate. He calls with any pair that he bets, and with overs and gutters a shitload. Its not a bad play at all.

I agree with this, I don't get the hate either. Any hate or loving of this play is purely image based. Obviously if people aren't c/r very much as bluffs then trying to get value out of 99 here is going to be a stretch.

[Marshall28]

i slightly prefer leading the flop as well, but i don't understand the flop c/r hate. He calls with any pair that he bets, and with overs and gutters a shitload. Its not a bad play at all.

I agree with this, I don't get the hate either. Any hate or loving of this play is purely image based. Obviously if people aren't c/r very much as bluffs then trying to get value out of 99 here is going to be a stretch.

Checkraising the flop just overreps your hand, he will bluff catch stronger hands and 3bet bluff you with air. The times he does call, you'll not have any idea where you're at on the turn and you'll be in a bloated pot out of position. c/r creates a nightmare unless you have the right dynamic and you know your opponent very well.

[Sir Pawnalot]

Completely agree with you Griffey.

If we are not c/ring very much, we dont get value from this hand. But, on the other hand, if we are c/ring a balanced range we get tremendous value from spots like this.

It seems some people judge a play a priori, without considering the dynamics.

I also think its worth mentioning that we have very good equity here. But depending on our metagame we may or may not get value from a c/r.

C/ring does not overrepresent our hand, unless we have a very strong c/r range.

[Renton]

marshall has a point about it inducing weird spots. it should definitely be at the bottom of your c/r value range (imo A8 is a stronger hand in practice)