A9dd line check 100nl

villain seems pretty nitty over 100 hands, 10% PFR in EP. probably on several tables but he's search blocked. I wouldn't have an image at this point since we've played no pots together

I didn't want to c/r flop since he probably never 3b bluffs

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP ($87.50)
CO ($225.55)
Button ($111.65)
SB ($100.50)
Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 9
1 fold, MP bets $4, 1 fold, Button calls $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($12.50) 3, J, 3 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($28.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $18, Hero raises to $36

This is pretty bad. You're repping pretty much nothing.... I can't even imagine what hands you would play like this?

Even worse is that you have A-high, so you probably beat a lot of his hands that are doubling here and b/f.

I would just c/r the flop and hope to get it in.

As played, I'd always C/C here (on the turn) you've got SD value, you're range will look like it's heavily weighted towards Jx, so would think that villain is unlikely to try and bluff us on the river, unless an overcard comes, and we have an A so that's a card we can C/C on pretty comfortably, and also one that a lot of villains will bet.

On the flop, I'd C/C, you keep worse hand and draws in, you're not folding better. The only time i'd C/R this here is if I had some sort of dynamic going on where I'd been C/R a lot of flops, and expected villain to make a play a high % of the time, so we can re-ship and win the pot uncontested a lot, with a fair bit of money already in. However, this isn't the case here, so I'd C/C.

Yeah, with the check miraise, you're repping pretty much 77 for value...anyone with any semblance of combinatorics will likely not give you much credit here, and is unlikely to fold anything better....that is with the little info we have.

The problem with your line is it doesn't make much sense and unless you have a solid read on how he will react to this I don't like it. Is your plan really to c/minraise then c/c any river to get value from his QK, floats? Is it to induce a 3b bluff and ship over? We need a reason..

Against most regs I'm c/r this flop, I'd do it with air too and expect some 3b bluffs, weaker fd's or hands that A9dd does pretty well against. When I don't like to c/r flop for whatever reason, I just call twice regardless of turn and re-eval river.

Against a nit whos not full stacked and betting twice I would rather c/f this turn. I feel that most nits dont try to dbl brl this texture and would be checking back a large portion of their A high broadway hands on the turn. I would c/c flop and c/f turn but if the turn were to check through I would lead out with a reasonable sized bet on most rivers. I dun mind c/r flop and get it in either since we probably have 12 clean outs against his b/3bing range on the flop.

Originally Posted by shakesss

Against a nit whos not full stacked and betting twice I would rather c/f this turn. I feel that most nits dont try to dbl brl this texture and would be checking back a large portion of their A high broadway hands on the turn. I would c/c flop and c/f turn but if the turn were to check through I would lead out with a reasonable sized bet on most rivers. I dun mind c/r flop and get it in either since we probably have 12 clean outs against his b/3bing range on the flop.

At first I thought you were crazy to want to c/f turn, but now I am not so sure.

Board: Jd 3d 3h 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.727% 24.73% 00.00% 544 0.00 { Ad9d }
Hand 1: 75.273% 75.27% 00.00% 1656 0.00 { JJ+, 77, 33, AJs, KdQd, KJs, KdTd, QJs, QdTd, 8d7d, AJo, KJo }

We need 29% equity to call the turn, so we don't have direct odds to call.
Do we have enough implied odds to compensate?

I am not sure that we do. We will stack all his diamond combos on a diamond river, but he has only a few diamond combos in his range if our read is correct that he is a nit. He will stack us on a diamond river when he has JJ/77/33 or if the Qd/Kd falls and he has QQ/KK.

We would need him to pay us off on a diamond river with some of his Jx, or overpair hands. The problem with that is we are out of position, so it's going to be difficult to get any more money in the pot vs those hands.

(I ignored the times that we river top pair. I don't think we have much implied odds for that anyways.)

Thoughts?

c/r flop imo even though you are not repping much.

On a side note I think we should be calling basically all underpairs and Jx's to the flop and turn barrels because our range on the river is going to be so obviously flush heavy that if the flush hits are bluff equity is going to be superb.

Originally Posted by Alexos

The problem with your line is it doesn't make much sense and unless you have a solid read on how he will react to this I don't like it. Is your plan really to c/minraise then c/c any river to get value from his QK, floats? Is it to induce a 3b bluff and ship over? We need a reason..

Against most regs I'm c/r this flop, I'd do it with air too and expect some 3b bluffs, weaker fd's or hands that A9dd does pretty well against. When I don't like to c/r flop for whatever reason, I just call twice regardless of turn and re-eval river.

This pretty much sums it up.

Why are you calling pre?

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

Why are you calling pre?

it's not that bad, if its a 3x raise im always calling generally speaking

again depends what nit means though, also positional stats, etc... if he opens 15% and less im folding it

yea when I was thinking about this hand and how I couldn't see a 'good' flop or turn action for my hand, I thought 'maybe I should fold pre'.

alexos I thought I could get him to fold AQ/AJ/AK to my turn c/r and I also didn't realize that I was only repping JJ/77 at best -- and I may wait to c/r the river with those hands.

I can see how c/r flop would be best particularly since my Ax has no bluff catching value versus his EP range

I think we can c/c this turn. His range is mostly weighted twords overpairs, so we get enough implied odds on the river. I doubt he often manages to escape without losing at least one decent sized bet, even on diamonds. I find these guys whoare nitty preflop often wait around so much for overpairs that they find it difficult to fold them: the fact he's not full stacked suggests he's probably not great at ranging or hand reading so I think we're fine here and can have the best hand sometimes although rarely even on blank rivers. He's very unlikely to bluff missed fds or air on blanks so yah I like c/c turn as played.

I doubt we get him to 3 bet bluff the flop very often here after he c bets multiway given he's a nit. There's also like 1 combo of worse FD in his range, and he's likely to shut down on the turn with AK AQ etc and we can profitably bet the river. Don't see too much reason to c/r this flop. Think calling is probably more +EV.

cc turn. you have the wrong hand to cr

b3b the flop of course!

Absolutely fold pre. As played c/f flop. As played c/f turn.

What ISF said about flopped pairs is brilliant, but might not apply at 100nl against someone who makes it 4x pre from HJ.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

As played c/f flop.

Level?

Head explosion.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Level?

Head explosion.

This hand is just a very trivial fold pre, but if I did, let's say, misclick pre, then c/f is my line, no level. I would c/c at most $6.50 on the flop.

Didn't see that he wasn't sitting with a full stack though. That fact more than likely gives us enough reason to call. I'm assuming ISF didn't notice that either since we are definitely not going to bluff flushes now imo. The idea is still brilliant.

P4- c/f flop doesn't make much sense sir, our hand is a bit too strong for that even vs a 10% pfr nit. Agree with fold pre vs 10% utg open.

Genitruc- checking seems way better than leading vs this guy no?

ya maybe checking is better (obv way more standard) but it seems like i d like to have a leading range and i d like for this hand to be a part of it

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

On a side note I think we should be calling basically all underpairs and Jx's to the flop and turn barrels because our range on the river is going to be so obviously flush heavy that if the flush hits are bluff equity is going to be superb.

Meaning you are bluff-shoving this range on a diamond river?

Originally Posted by Alexos

P4- c/f flop doesn't make much sense sir, our hand is a bit too strong for that even vs a 10% pfr nit.

One man's garbage is another man's gold.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

One man's garbage is another man's gold.

cool starry bra, but we're still slightly ahead of his range

Fight!

Originally Posted by Alexos

cool starry bra, but we're still slightly ahead of his range

hot/cold equity bushwhack

sure but still, you have a 20%+ margin of safety from pot odds to range equity here!!!

Originally Posted by Alexos

sure but still, you have a 20%+ margin of safety from pot odds to range equity here!!!

So the EV of c/c in your opinion is how much? Maybe a dollar? I guess that's possible but considering this passive, utterly predictable, redline killing, momentum losing high-variance play, you can have my dollar.

Also, have fun:

Turn: ($28.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $14, MP calls.

River: ($56.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $28, MP raises all-in, Hero?

That's a little extreme. How about this:

Turn: ($28.50) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $18, Hero calls.

River: ($64.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $41, Hero?

Or this:

Turn: ($28.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $18, Hero calls.

River: ($64.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $41, Hero?

Or maybe even:

Turn: ($28.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $18, Hero calls.

River: ($64.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $21.50, Hero?

1- dont lead turn and don't bet like a fish
2-call
3-fold river
4-fold

We are getting almost 3:1 in a spot where we have 52% equity vs a 10% EP range (obv gonna be a bit wider than this since he's not UTG, but evens out since he won't cbet 100% prob just 90%). I'll take my dollars and the variance that comes with it I guess! You can have the redline and momentum :P

Originally Posted by Alexos

1- dont lead turn and don't bet like a fish

I had to create a three bets to all-in scenario where villain puts the last bet in on the river because otherwise we could never even consider folding the nut flush. That's why I called the example "extreme".

I am most definitely leading this turn though. Exploit that.

Originally Posted by Alexos

We are getting almost 3:1 in a spot where we have 52% equity vs a 10% EP range

You are talking about two street hot/cold equity which is sooooo irrelevant here. Calling the flop buys you 9 (almost) clean outs. That's 20%. Where is that margin of safety you are talking about?

shit this forum is heating up

the reign of the benevolent and sadistic scandi monarch is upon us

It never gets old to suggest some absurd play and then defend it to death.

I would lead the turn vs this specific opponent as well, if I spiked. I think he's the type to pot control and check back the diamond turn.

but yah I'd bet turn/river harder than the example given.

If I stop replying to this thread do you win by default?

Originally Posted by Alexos

If I stop replying to this thread do you win by default?

This forum is all about strategic debate. The ones that learn from it will win at the tables, the ones that don't, won't. Thanks for participating.