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 Originally Posted by shakesss
Against a nit whos not full stacked and betting twice I would rather c/f this turn. I feel that most nits dont try to dbl brl this texture and would be checking back a large portion of their A high broadway hands on the turn. I would c/c flop and c/f turn but if the turn were to check through I would lead out with a reasonable sized bet on most rivers. I dun mind c/r flop and get it in either since we probably have 12 clean outs against his b/3bing range on the flop.
At first I thought you were crazy to want to c/f turn, but now I am not so sure.
Board: Jd 3d 3h 7s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.727% 24.73% 00.00% 544 0.00 { Ad9d }
Hand 1: 75.273% 75.27% 00.00% 1656 0.00 { JJ+, 77, 33, AJs, KdQd, KJs, KdTd, QJs, QdTd, 8d7d, AJo, KJo }
We need 29% equity to call the turn, so we don't have direct odds to call.
Do we have enough implied odds to compensate?
I am not sure that we do. We will stack all his diamond combos on a diamond river, but he has only a few diamond combos in his range if our read is correct that he is a nit. He will stack us on a diamond river when he has JJ/77/33 or if the Qd/Kd falls and he has QQ/KK.
We would need him to pay us off on a diamond river with some of his Jx, or overpair hands. The problem with that is we are out of position, so it's going to be difficult to get any more money in the pot vs those hands.
(I ignored the times that we river top pair. I don't think we have much implied odds for that anyways.)
Thoughts?
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