AA hand, instacall this right?

No reads on villain other than he is somewhat laggish 24/18 and pretty aggressive. Without a read that villain leads with sets, I'm compelled to call this right?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($198.65)
MP ($98)
Hero ($199.70)
Button ($233.96)
SB ($176.18)
BB ($227.80)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A. SB posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($15) 3, 4, 2 (2 players)
BB bets $15, Hero raises to $50, BB raises $205.80 (All-In), Hero ????

Yes, nh.

I insta-call that. Nice thing is you even have six outs if he does have a set.

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Yes, nh.

put him on a range, and we are behind

i think its a fold

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Yes, nh.

put him on a range, and we are behind

What range do you put him on? Villains that are somewhat LAggish and pretty aggressive are capable of playing this way with any overpair to the board, which is about any pair at all. A very likely candidate, I think, is 55 or 66, both of which you're well ahead of.

His lead is *very* forceful if he has a set or a made straight. I could much more easily see almost any overpair or combo draw.

Hmm. For a random $200NL donk, this could easily be a lower overpair, even as little as 5-5. Without a read, I think I might gamble and call this, but I don't believe it's a very high expectation call.

the slightly LAG villian' will never push over a raise here with an overpair, with the possible exception of QQ-AA. i think sets and combo draws (flushdraw + pair/straight draw) make up most of his range.

Gabe, what do you think of the flop raise?

Actually, seeing as it's $150 more to call into a pot that is about half that, this is probably a fold.

I'd wager that the villain in this hand is one of the biggest winners in this game. (seriously)

Also, once we raise this flop, I think we really have to call the all-in.

We're getting about 1.85 : 1 on the call. It's hard pressed to put this guy on a range where calling isn't correct.

could we get greater EV by flat calling and pushing a blank turn?

or is the turn too tough to evaluate considering the number of possible draws he might have?

Originally Posted by gabe

the slightly LAG villian' will never push over a raise here with an overpair, with the possible exception of QQ-AA. i think sets and combo draws (flushdraw + pair/straight draw) make up most of his range.

Well we need to win this hand 35% of the time to justify the call.

We have about 20% equity against a set, and say 50% equity against a combo draw (probably be a bit higher, especially if we consider that it could JUST be a draw, or it could be something like gutshot + flush draw, but 50% seems appropriate.) There's also the possibility of a made straight which has us almost dead, and vise versa with QQ/KK. This line screams combo draw in my experience though, which is what leans me towards a call. I think it's really close though now to be honest.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Actually, seeing as it's $150 more to call into a pot that is about half that, this is probably a fold.

It's a $270 pot actually, including the push.

Originally Posted by Renton

could we get greater EV by flat calling and pushing a blank turn?

or is the turn too tough to evaluate considering the number of possible draws he might have?

might not be a bad play.

We could also just call on the flop with the intention of doing something else on the turn, but I think against an agressive opponent a flop raise is usually better here since we are much stronger then normal in this spot.

Originally Posted by Renton

could we get greater EV by flat calling and pushing a blank turn?

Float like a shit log. Sting like a herpies flare.

Well, I did call (not an instacall though) and he had 44. I was very surprised to see him play a set on the flop so strongly. I expected to be up against some kind of draw or a smaller overpair (maybe not 66-77 as much as a slowplayed TT-KK). I'm also a little surprised most of you could ever find a fold here vs an unknown.

Originally Posted by Lukie

Originally Posted by gabe

the slightly LAG villian' will never push over a raise here with an overpair, with the possible exception of QQ-AA. i think sets and combo draws (flushdraw + pair/straight draw) make up most of his range.

Well we need to win this hand 35% of the time to justify the call.

We have about 20% equity against a set, and say 50% equity against a combo draw (probably be a bit higher, especially if we consider that it could JUST be a draw, or it could be something like gutshot + flush draw, but 50% seems appropriate.) There's also the possibility of a made straight which has us almost dead, and vise versa with QQ/KK. This line screams combo draw in my experience though, which is what leans me towards a call. I think it's really close though now to be honest.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

Board: 4s 3s 2c

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.0442 % 28.65% 01.39% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 69.9558 % 68.56% 01.39% { 44-22, As6s, A5s, As2s, 76s, 65s, 43s }

Originally Posted by aislephive

I'm also a little surprised most of you could ever find a fold here vs an unknown.

No overpairs in his range gabe?

i don't think an aware villain would ever bet/3bet an overpair here.

KK and AA might play this way, but players with those stats usually don't slowplay stuff preflop.

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by Lukie

Originally Posted by gabe

the slightly LAG villian' will never push over a raise here with an overpair, with the possible exception of QQ-AA. i think sets and combo draws (flushdraw + pair/straight draw) make up most of his range.

Well we need to win this hand 35% of the time to justify the call.

We have about 20% equity against a set, and say 50% equity against a combo draw (probably be a bit higher, especially if we consider that it could JUST be a draw, or it could be something like gutshot + flush draw, but 50% seems appropriate.) There's also the possibility of a made straight which has us almost dead, and vise versa with QQ/KK. This line screams combo draw in my experience though, which is what leans me towards a call. I think it's really close though now to be honest.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

Board: 4s 3s 2c

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.0442 % 28.65% 01.39% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 69.9558 % 68.56% 01.39% { 44-22, As6s, A5s, As2s, 76s, 65s, 43s }

Originally Posted by aislephive

I'm also a little surprised most of you could ever find a fold here vs an unknown.

gabe, even if this is the guy's range, it's a very close fold. If you add even a very small amount to his range that we crush, or we weight this range more toward the draw end (debatable), this becomes a close call.

i gave them a very liberal range to show how much of a call it is. the guy is probably not defending with half those big draws.

I think this is probably one of those situations where a call has almost zero expectation, but involves huge risk. Since risk is bad, you should fold. It's like flipping a coin for a full buy-in.

dsax,

(a big if, and I'm not applying this to this specific hand, just in general)

if we determine that a call has 0 EV, don't you think metagame reasons outweigh concerns about variance, making it a call?

Originally Posted by Lukie

dsax,

(a big if, and I'm not applying this to this specific hand, just in general)

if we determine that a call has 0 EV, don't you think metagame reasons outweigh concerns about variance, making it a call?

Possibly, but what are the metagame implications? An aggressive player might reraise all-in with garbage when we put out a big raise? This isn't necessarily a bad thing. It might even contribute somewhat to a loose aggressive image, which is good for betting paid on big hands.

I guess that's the flip side of it, but I tend to think getting played back at by a good player is -ev for us. Also keep in mind that we are rarely going to have a stronger hand in this spot then we do now.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

I think this is probably one of those situations where a call has almost zero expectation, but involves huge risk. Since risk is bad, you should fold. It's like flipping a coin for a full buy-in.

Hey I'll flip a coin getting 2-1 on my money any day of the week.

I think we see a set here 15 % of the time, a draw 75% and a smaller overpair 10% of the time. I'm 20/80 against a set, about 50/50 vs a combo a draw, 60/40 against a bare flush draw, and about 90/10 against a smaller overpair other than 55/66. I think the range I put him on is fairly accurate, although maybe the percentages are a little off, but close I would say.

I just did the math in my head and given the hand ranges I put him on including the percentages I'm about 50/50 to win the hand getting almost 2:1 on my money, so this is a call.

Originally Posted by aislephive

Hey I'll flip a coin getting 2-1 on my money any day of the week.

I didn't mean flipping a coin in the sense that you're 50% to win. I meant you're flipping a coin in the sense that you're making a zero expectation call. There is a huge difference.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Originally Posted by aislephive

Hey I'll flip a coin getting 2-1 on my money any day of the week.

I didn't mean flipping a coin in the sense that you're 50% to win. I meant you're flipping a coin in the sense that you're making a zero expectation call. There is a huge difference.

Yes there is, but I think with his hand range I'm expected to win 40-50 percent of the time, getting almost 2-1. Does that not make this a call? What do you think of my hand ranges, are they far off?

call the flop bomb any blank turn line any better?

I hardly think this is a fold, but probably not a massivly +ev call.

Fold. Who wouldn't lead with a set into this board? His 3bet says you're either crushed or he has an assload of outs. Combined, its a fold.

Sets aren't all we're worried about here either.

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

Fold. Who wouldn't lead with a set into this board? His 3bet says you're either crushed or he has an assload of outs. Combined, its a fold.

Sets aren't all we're worried about here either.

That's being too general, how often do you think he has a set here as opposed to a draw? And if he slowplayed JJ-KK preflop don't you think he plays it the same way? Even if I think he either has me crushed or he has a lot of outs, the fact that I'm getting nearly 2-1 makes it a call depending on how often I think he has a draw/set etc. The math in this hand is very important.

People at Party 200nl slowplay the shit out of their sets for the most part. How can you put some guy square on a set when he leads for pot on the flop into the PFR and shoves in when he gets raised. Most people do not play sets like that. A hand like A5 or 56 I doubt he even defends his blind with, but it's possible. But once again, I wouldn't expect a flopped straight to come out firing like that either. Yes he played it good by leading out, but the 200nl games are hardly aggressive enough to warrant playing a set that fast against your average 200nl player. That is a move best served for the higher stakes where people are much more aggressive and their bluffing frequency is much higher.

Or where he has a good idea that you have an overpair. What he did here seems to be designed to maximize profit against JJ+ and blow any hand that missed the flop right out of the pot. It's interesting, for sure. I lead my sets a lot based on how the pre-flop went down but he seems to basically be saying "screw it, I'll fold out AK/AQ right now if it means I can stack QQ+".

Originally Posted by aislephive

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

Fold. Who wouldn't lead with a set into this board? His 3bet says you're either crushed or he has an assload of outs. Combined, its a fold.

Sets aren't all we're worried about here either.

That's being too general, how often do you think he has a set here as opposed to a draw? And if he slowplayed JJ-KK preflop don't you think he plays it the same way? Even if I think he either has me crushed or he has a lot of outs, the fact that I'm getting nearly 2-1 makes it a call depending on how often I think he has a draw/set etc. The math in this hand is very important.

People at Party 200nl slowplay the shit out of their sets for the most part. How can you put some guy square on a set when he leads for pot on the flop into the PFR and shoves in when he gets raised. Most people do not play sets like that. A hand like A5 or 56 I doubt he even defends his blind with, but it's possible. But once again, I wouldn't expect a flopped straight to come out firing like that either. Yes he played it good by leading out, but the 200nl games are hardly aggressive enough to warrant playing a set that fast against your average 200nl player. That is a move best served for the higher stakes where people are much more aggressive and their bluffing frequency is much higher.

That is true, but even an average player knows this is a shitty board that will scare one of you off if the money doesnt get in now. If the games are so unaggressive then why would he be playing 99 or JJ so hard?

But looking over the HH again, I feel tempted to call too. Shit, I don't know I think its one of those times where you need to be there to make a decision.

It's obvious that Hero should call the push after raising the flop. So the real question is if raising the flop is the correct move? Hero has position.

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

It's obvious that Hero should call the push after raising the flop. So the real question is if raising the flop is the correct move? Hero has position.

I was also thinking about this (renton too, if I remember correctly), and at the time, I figured I'd be happier about it if I had in my hand.

What's our plan if the turn blanks, and he comes out firing again?

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

Originally Posted by aislephive

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

Fold. Who wouldn't lead with a set into this board? His 3bet says you're either crushed or he has an assload of outs. Combined, its a fold.

Sets aren't all we're worried about here either.

That's being too general, how often do you think he has a set here as opposed to a draw? And if he slowplayed JJ-KK preflop don't you think he plays it the same way? Even if I think he either has me crushed or he has a lot of outs, the fact that I'm getting nearly 2-1 makes it a call depending on how often I think he has a draw/set etc. The math in this hand is very important.

People at Party 200nl slowplay the shit out of their sets for the most part. How can you put some guy square on a set when he leads for pot on the flop into the PFR and shoves in when he gets raised. Most people do not play sets like that. A hand like A5 or 56 I doubt he even defends his blind with, but it's possible. But once again, I wouldn't expect a flopped straight to come out firing like that either. Yes he played it good by leading out, but the 200nl games are hardly aggressive enough to warrant playing a set that fast against your average 200nl player. That is a move best served for the higher stakes where people are much more aggressive and their bluffing frequency is much higher.

That is true, but even an average player knows this is a shitty board that will scare one of you off if the money doesnt get in now. If the games are so unaggressive then why would he be playing 99 or JJ so hard?

But looking over the HH again, I feel tempted to call too. Shit, I don't know I think its one of those times where you need to be there to make a decision.

I'd be a lot more inclined to fold if there weren't two spades on board, although I still might call, depends. I think a draw makes up most of his range here.

I'm not saying the 200nl games are passive, I'm saying that they are no where near as aggressive as 5/10 or 10/20. If this was at either of those stakes this would be an even easier call since players at the high stakes love to push their draws hard. And obviously villain in this hand is much more aggressive than your average 200nl player.

There can be an argument made for just calling the flop and shoving a safe turn, but there aren't a whole lot of safe turn cards so I wanted to get the money in now.