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 Originally Posted by dsaxton
I think this is probably one of those situations where a call has almost zero expectation, but involves huge risk. Since risk is bad, you should fold. It's like flipping a coin for a full buy-in.
Hey I'll flip a coin getting 2-1 on my money any day of the week.
I think we see a set here 15 % of the time, a draw 75% and a smaller overpair 10% of the time. I'm 20/80 against a set, about 50/50 vs a combo a draw, 60/40 against a bare flush draw, and about 90/10 against a smaller overpair other than 55/66. I think the range I put him on is fairly accurate, although maybe the percentages are a little off, but close I would say.
I just did the math in my head and given the hand ranges I put him on including the percentages I'm about 50/50 to win the hand getting almost 2:1 on my money, so this is a call.
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