AA. Thin river value raise

Villian is tight/passive. Hardly raises preflop. I have been playing semi-lag and have been caught bluffing a couple times. What do you think of my line?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero ($97.85)
Button ($16.50)
SB ($93.90)
BB ($100)
UTG ($199.76)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, A. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, 3 folds, UTG calls $7.

Flop: ($21.50) T, 7, 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $12, UTG calls $12.

Turn: ($45.50) 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($45.50) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero raises to $35

if hes tight passive, raising the river is bad

I think raising there is a very borderline play, if he reraises I assume you fold without hesitation. His river bet was so small it looks like he wanted a call there. I think he could have something like TT here. I like checking behind on the turn to keep the pot-size down, and I would definitely just call that river.

This seems like a definite situation where you just call for value. I don't see any value in the raise.

Yeah, I realize the standard play in this situation is to just call the river bet and I probably do call about 95% of the time here, but I think we have to look at two key factors, villian's likely hand range and my ability to sell a bluff on the river.

I think villian being tight/passive really helps to narrow down his hand range. He opens for 3xBB UTG, so right there I know he has a hand, and he confirms this when he calls my preflop reraise. Now he just check/calls my flop c-bet, so right there I know he doesn't have AKo or AQo. This narrows his range down significantly. Now he probably has a hand like QQ/JJ (I really don't think he has KK here but it probably plays the same as QQ/JJ), TT, maybe 99, and possibly but unlikely a hand like K Q . I have the A so this really helps to eliminate a flush draw.

On the turn I checked behind to minimize the amount I lose to TT and to not scare him off QQ/JJ because I'm pretty sure he folds QQ/JJ if I bet something like 2/3 - 3/4 pot. Of course checking here is bad if he has a flush draw, but like I said above it was unlikely for him to have diamonds so that's just the risk I decided to take. Now the river is pretty meaningless unless he has 99, and he bets out less than 1/4 pot. I think he bets more with TT/99 and there's almost no way he bets busted diamonds like this. So that leaves QQ/JJ which makes perfect sense for a tight/passive to block the river and/or put out a small value bet. Therefore I think a value raise is in order here, but how much to raise? I really wanted to sell a bluff here, so I didn't want to do something donkish like minraise. Hence the rather large river raise and he called and mucked J J .

Do you think it's +EV to narrow down villian's range so tightly here and make these thin value bets?

Easy turn bet, take the other pair to the cleaners.

The board seems way too dangerous for a raise to be a likely bluff. I don't think a timid opponent calls this raise often enough with a hand you can beat.

i actually like the whole hand. Checking the turn assuming cards opp has gives us a reasobale range. Betting the turn is a good option but if we have a lagg-ish image here checking the turn makes us look weak inducing some sort of blocking or hard betting play on the river from opp. Thus raising the river is then a good move for added value.
I like every street although i wouldnt always check this turn.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Easy turn bet, take the other pair to the cleaners.

How much do you bet, so as to not scare off QQ/JJ? Are you looking to play a big pot with AA here against a non-donk?

Originally Posted by dsaxton

The board seems way too dangerous for a raise to be a likely bluff. I don't think a timid opponent calls this raise often enough with a hand you can beat.

I think it's pretty obvious that villian and myself are not strong here, don't you think? And if you know your opponent is weak, is that alone not a good enough reason to bluff?

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

How much do you bet, so as to not scare off QQ/JJ?

Why would you worry about scaring off over-pairs? 2/3 pot the turn, play the river.

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

I think it's pretty obvious that villian and myself are not strong here, don't you think? And if you know your opponent is weak, is that alone not a good enough reason to bluff?

It's short handed, the board is a bunch of bricks, your opponent is on a tight range and you have fucking Aces with a "LAgg" image! Part of the reason you play all the other crap is to get maxium value out of spots where you're pretty sure you have his balls in a vice-grip.

Do you really consider villain so weak/good that he would an overpair here? If so, you should consider running him over quite often. Also, given his narrow range, there is no need to for pot control either.

Bet the turn. Ops probably will not fold overpairs.

Yeah, value betting the turn is definitely good. Just make a value bet for him to call since he's likely drawing to two outs.

Thanks for the replies guys. I'm still trying to get adjusted to shorthanded games.