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 Originally Posted by Renton
Originally Posted by Genitruc
Would you do this is board was completely dry?
no, i'd flat
this is exactly the topic.
well if this is the topic then it seems pretty straightforward
also, it illustrates why semi-bluffing is such a powerful play vs aware opponents.
If we assume villain will make this minraise (or any flop raise) with either 2 pr/set or big draw then waiting for the turn to get our money in w AA is always the correct play :
-we lose less money by proceeding more cautiously when draws hit
-we price villains out of draws w 1 card to come
-we potentially get to showdown cheaper when villain has the 2pr/set since board should slow him down as much as it slows us down
The crux of the matter is what % of villain's range is a big draw vs 2pr/set. If it's 50/50 then mathematically it's always better to float call the flop and wait for a safe turn to get lots of monies in the pot.
In OP hand, if villain is NEVER making this minraise w bare oesd but likely w 2pr, set and huge draws (i.e. 89h) then it's def more +ev to flat call flop and c raise/lead big on safe turn (no 6 no J no heart... sux I admit).
Other problem here is whether or not villain ever plays smaller overpairs this way. Just comes down to reads basically... But according to all the crap I've just written, it would seem the optimal line would be the flat call on this board. Personally, I'd usually flat call AA to the flop minraise without a read even on very dry boards. But I tend to play overpairs weak.
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