An acceptable downswing?

What kind of downswing do you need to take before you have to start wondering if it's more than just acceptable short term bad luck? I've played about 100K hands at various levels since I first installed Poker Tracker, and the worst downswing I've ever taken is 5, maybe even 6 buyins.

3 days ago I moved up a level to Stars 6-Max 10NL. It's not the first time I've tried to move up, but I was thinking that this time I'd cracked it. I played 4k hands and I was up $120, so I was thinking that'd I'd officially moved up, but today, in the space of a thousand hands I took an 8 buyin downswing. Is this within normal margins for a profitable player, or is it most likely my fault? I have missed a couple of draws with huge money in the pot, been drawn out on, and cold decked (KKvAA in their favour twice, set over set in their favour twice, all in for a big pot with the nut flush draw which eventually missed, and so on), but never the less, that's happened before and I've never downswung quite so bad. I'm an 18BB/100h (after 80k hands) player at 5NL 6-Max, is it likely I can be terrible at 10NL?

Bad poker or bad luck - which is most likely? Do you have an amount of buyins you can loose before you have to admit it's your own fault?

8 Buyins in 2 hours; it's savage, I just don't know where I am now.

kk vs aa and set over set is nothing you can do... I personally didn't like to move allin on draws at microstakes, because you'll get paid off perfectly most of the time when you do hit.

I do advice to keep yourself committed to your bankroll managementplan. so move down to 5nl when you get below 100$. we've all had to move down once in a while, nothing wrong. I'm sure you'll be a winning player at 10NL if you beat 5NL. But again, I don't like to overplay my draws at that limit. No need to...

I probably put it missleadingly. I had AKs on the button in a reraised pot. 4 players saw the flop, all of them have me covered, checked to me, I bet 2/3 of the pot with the nut draw. UTG check raises me all in, the other two players call him. I think I was getting about 4 to 1 on a 2 to 1. It was a +ev play, it's just that I lost that time.

The best thing you can do is read the stickies here, review your hands and post some of them in this forum.

You may be on a downswing but it's likely you have some leaks too and there are plenty of people here who can help. Post your PT stats too.

ok, yes that is something different

It's something I have trouble with too when I move up. These decisions are +EV, but higher variance (remember you have 3 opponents AND need to improve to win it). Personally if it's checked to me, give me a free card against 3 opponents. headsup is easier ,but at 10NL not likely

What I'm trying to say is, when in a downswing or have just moved up it might be better to play a low variance style for a while. It could also be just bad luck, but reading your post this is the only thing I can comment on which I would do different in that situation.

FWIW, i'm a winner in my DB for 10NL & 25NL, over 15K and 25K hands respectively and in that time i've had some big downswings. At 10NL i had a 7 BI downswing (well, most of it was spew ) in 500 hands, and went even further and dropped 10 BIs at 25NL over about 2K hands.

Coolers, bad beats & downswings will happen in cash games, esp. if u are the type to play big draws aggressively. At least you're getting some experience of the swings at the microstakes, rather than constantly winning till u hit 100NL and then suddenly dropping $800 in 1 day

Also, 100k hands at 10NL and below? Post yer stats!

Its more about whats going on than how big the downswing is. In your case its sounds like you are being brutalised by varience so i wouldnt worry. Take a look at where most of your losses are comming from. Are you getting it allin behind too often aswell? Are you building big pots and then folding when you shouldnt be? Are you building big pots where you shouldnt be? If none of this applies then you probably are a winning play who is just running like shit.

Having said that, if your roll is starting to get shorter, or you are starting to lose confidence/tilt then I would consider moving down to regroup. If you are still playing well and you still have plenty of money behind then ride it out.

"However bad you run, you can run worse. And will run worse" - some 2+2er


Look through the big pots in that session that you lost and see how you played them - I often find some seriously butchered hands when I do that. If you're not sure how you did post 'em here.

What are you pre-flop stats?
You might be limping/calling raises too much, I think the 5nl game on stars is a 200bb game (You can buy in for $10) so your implied odds with draws/speculative hands etc. are huge against bad players who cant fold tp+.

Thanks for all the comments folks, very useful.

I've been meaning to post my PT Stats, but is there a "right" way to do it? Which PT pages should I screen dump?

Incidently, since I posted I played another thousand hands, and made it all back plus about 2 dollars. Mad.

www.pokerevsoftware.com


Do it

More importantly than PT stats post big hands where you think getting it in was questionable or where you lost a big pot. You're not playing high varience levels so that is a pretty big downswing. It could be you being unlucky of course, but it never hurts to analyze your game.