AK 3 bet gets cold called, wtf river line.

Villain is 20/17 and doesn't cold call 3 bet lightly from what I've seen. Probably something like 88-QQ preflop, perhaps AQs KQs stuff too. CO opens wide, I 3 bet a bunch. So his range is so so often just 99-QQ on this river, I make a bet size I hope he'll view as bluffy/polarizing like "omg he never has a 5 or a set so he has air" type thing. I get jammed on..

So is he more likely to have flatted some set making lower pair then slow played the flop and turn on this texture...or just plainly have 88 a bunch....or randomly have Tc9c.....or does he absurdly bluff his underpairs anywhere near as often as this, or float the turn with idk AQ to then do this. All of the above seem as unlikely as each other. The only hand that makes any sense is 88 and that's 3 combos.

It's like he can have no hands for value and no hands as a bluff.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($27.55)
CO ($50)
Hero (Button) ($63.65)
SB ($63.05)
BB ($25.65)
UTG ($109.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K
2 folds, CO bets $1.25, Hero raises $4, SB calls $3.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.75) 7, 4, 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($9.75) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.25, SB calls $6.25

River: ($22.25) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB raises $52.80 (All-In), Hero?

I'd call if I thought he was really good, fold if he's just a boring reg.

I'd fold because I expect them to be bluffing like literally never.

Looks like AA/KK/AK

I'd bet the flop

If we bet flop is it with the plan to fire 3/try to make him fold his range? Think he'll have flopped a decent but not great overpair a pretty large amount here.

i don't mind firing three IF we are pretty confident in our read that he doesn't have 44-77 in his preflop flatting range. this is probably the best hand in our 3b range to do it with except AdXd, A5s, K5s etc, depending on how wide you're 3-betting.

Pretty wack hand. I thought earlier I'd be pretty confident calling against a really advanced player who knows what you're doing on the river and then turns around and says, "eff you for thinking you can get away with betting AK here" and then shoving cuz our range is pretty much capped at AK.

but

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Looks like AA/KK/AK

Reading this gives me pause and makes me want to fold to anyone because this was my initial reaction reading your description of villain, but then I thought it was too crazy.

I fold just because ppl don't c/r bluff large river bets without the nuts/near nuts. You can weight his range pretty heavily to AA/KK/88 or even flopped sets on the river since he probably expects you to have AK a lot of the time when you check flop which is why he checks turn. I mean he even shows up with 55 some of the time, I know your estimated range for him preflop doesn't include this, but how large is your sample size?

I like the flop check and turn and river bets. After the raise I pull a 'wtf' face and then fold. I think hes repping a really narrow range but you don't have previous history or dynamic to suggest hes making a move (aka its overwhelmingly likely hes doing this for vaule).

Originally Posted by Angryafrican

I like the flop check

Why?

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Why?

I think he floats, bluff raises or calls with a hand that is beating us often enough on this board that cbetting isn't profitable. This kind of board smacks a good part of his range (I think) and our percieved range is very weak on this board which gives him licence to mess around with our cbet a bunch. If we don't hit an A or K on the turn it makes our hand very hard to play.

I'm rather new at this, so please point out the flaws in my logic if you think its bad.