Almost equal stacks HU... Deuce-five offsuit! Let's go!

Does everyone make this move? Or are you ok with giving up the chip lead? I think keeping the chiplead once you get it adds incredible value to your bottom line, so plays like these are worth it... Thoughts?

The most relevant read on villain is that he will come over the top of a 2-4xBB raise with a pretty wide range.

PokerStars Game #6213839919: Tournament #31507080, $25+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2006/09/08 - 13:40:55 (ET)
Table '31507080 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 6: homerdash (6820 in chips)
Seat 7: BIGLivesOn (6680 in chips)
homerdash: posts the ante 50
BIGLivesOn: posts the ante 50
homerdash: posts small blind 300
BIGLivesOn: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to homerdash [2h 5d]
homerdash: raises 6170 to 6770 and is all-in

IMHO this is a horrible play.

How can you possible be even slightly ahead here? If you really want to steal his blind a raise of 1,500 would do the same as this bet only will allow you the ability to get out of the hand (and thus still be in the tournament) if he re-raises.

For me it all depends on how you've been playing before that. All-in is just silly, fold isn't so bad, nor is a raise to around 1.5k.

I figured I'd get replies along these lines... as in, just raise to 1500 or something. This is my full reasoning as to why pushing is the best play, but to be fair, some of this information wasn't in my OP:

Possible decisions:

Fold - Folding seems like it would be the default play but notice the stack sizes. Folding here gives him the chip lead, and due to villain's tendencies, I am getting raised on the next hand in the BB. Provided I don't get a hand that falls into my 20% reraise range against him, I'll fold there as well. This will put me pretty far behind in blind stealing.

Raise to 1200-2000 - This seems to be the popular choice so far, but there's a key problem with this move: suited connectors. Villain is very aggressive, so there is a good chance I'll get repopped with 56s, 79s, 68s, whatever. Also, if he thinks he has a decent amount of fold equity, he could shove K6 or Q9 or something like that right back in my face.

Shoving is the only play that takes his option of raising away, and since he can't raise, the range of hands he'll be willing to go with here shrinks dramatically.

taipan, run it in SNGPT... I don't have that fine piece of software yet. I think it could very well be -EV in chip terms, but holding a moderate chiplead heads-up in SNGs is so crucial.

One more thing, if he calls and I suck out, I win!

You shouldn't raise to 1500, it is push or fold. This hand is a fold.

You are pushing a huge range of hands here, but 25o is not in that range of hands.

SNGPT wont give u ev in chip terms unless u ask it too, otherwise it gives it to you in MONEY terms.
And im almost positive it will tell u that it is negative in money terms.

This is one that I fold here.

If I was playing live I might push in the dark, but after seeing the 52o you gotta just let it go. Of course you are assuming he will fold, but the bottom 3% of hands are just better to fold...

Originally Posted by vqc

SNGPT wont give u ev in chip terms unless u ask it too, otherwise it gives it to you in MONEY terms.
And im almost positive it will tell u that it is negative in money terms.

I thought chip ev was equivalent to dollar ev when it gets down to heads up?

I love how my explanation as to why shoving this could be better than folding is just completely glossed over. He didn't call with AA or anything, he folded and then I won the SNG a few hands later.

I'm going back to lurking and it's becoming blindingly obvious why this site is hemorrhaging quality posts at an alarming rate.

Maybe it will be better once you go back to lurking... lol JK...

The people that responded after your 2nd post see your reasons and understand them, but still disagree, there's nothing wrong with that, you play em how you want to. Peronsally I'd push almost any 2 in that spot to keep the chip lead, but 25o is falls into the "almost" category.

You say he's most likely raising any 2 next hand? Does he push? If so, call with Q7+, if not, push over his ass with any face card, otherwise fold and start the pushfest after. That's just what i'd do, since I play the 15's and 25's as well.

-Chris

Originally Posted by homerdash

I love how my explanation as to why shoving this could be better than folding is just completely glossed over. He didn't call with AA or anything, he folded and then I won the SNG a few hands later.

I'm going back to lurking and it's becoming blindingly obvious why this site is hemorrhaging quality posts at an alarming rate.

wtf are you talking about? We answered your question. We don't agree with your explanation. Did you post this just to find people who agree with you? If you did, you shouldn't have posted.

Your push was bad, that's the final word. With the way your stacks were, you shouldn't have even been pushing Q2o. If you don't wanna listen to us, that's just fine. People who don't want to listen to the advice people give are cool with me because then I can just win all their money.

Oh and elaborate on your statement regarding the "blindingly obvious" nature of this forum. I am highly interested in this one.

Well said, bosslady.

-Chris

Originally Posted by homerdash

I love how my explanation as to why shoving this could be better than folding is just completely glossed over. He didn't call with AA or anything, he folded and then I won the SNG a few hands later.

I'm going back to lurking and it's becoming blindingly obvious why this site is hemorrhaging quality posts at an alarming rate.

He will have a what, 100-200 chip lead if you fold? What difference does that make? Even if someone has a 2000 chip lead and they lose an allin they pretty much lost the tournament right there with these blinds.

You need to calm down, sir.

Originally Posted by homerdash

I love how my explanation as to why shoving this could be better than folding is just completely glossed over. He didn't call with AA or anything, he folded and then I won the SNG a few hands later.

I'm going back to lurking and it's becoming blindingly obvious why this site is hemorrhaging quality posts at an alarming rate.

Hi
Just for the record doesnt that line of thinking put u in the results orientated thinking portion of the population? I won and therefore my play was correct?

Ok so I ran this through SNGPT and if the oppponent is calling with top 20 whcih might be a bit tight depending on ur play, ur positive to push with 52o.

Ur breakeven range against villian is when hes caling with 22+ A2+ K8+ K5s+ QJo+ Q9s+ JTs

Im sure that if u wanted to be definitive about ur correctness instead of insulting the quality of the forum, you could always play out the next few hands using ICM and see which one results in a greate sum of +$ev situations.

Btw wtf is "hemorrhaging" ? Extreme loss of quality or something of that nature? lol nice word.

I think your way overseimateing the power of a small chip lead.

Even a 50% chip lead isnt all that.

This isnt limit.

Worst push ever? I think it's close. Let me ask poster this question. What hands are you NOT pushing in this spot?

well unless i calculated something wrong
its not realyl a "marginal" push
but given no inidication of claling ranges i can only hemorrhage a guess as to wat it could be.

I love how my explanation as to why shoving this could be better than folding is just completely glossed over. He didn't call with AA or anything, he folded and then I won the SNG a few hands later.

I'm going back to lurking and it's becoming blindingly obvious why this site is hemorrhaging quality posts at an alarming rate.

In other words, we didnt stroke your ego and say how great your bad play was?

You made a bad play, learn and improve... Dont rant and complain.

1) I overreacted, sorry. But I did get the feedback I actually wanted in the first place, hmm...

2) vqc, thanks for running it in SNGPT. I guess I can probably afford that app at this point heh. With the way it was playing out, his calling range was a bit tighter than the breakeven range I do believe. Like I was saying before, I think he shoves over a raise with a lot of hands that he wouldn't just call AI with. I think he actually can get away from a 55/45 flip for all the money with A2o or something. Glad to hear it's mathematically +EV if my read is right...

I wasn't looking for people to agree with me. But let's take courtiebee's responses for example. All they say is that this is the wrong play, WHY? "You shouldn't even be pushing Q2o here." WHY? I'm all for hearing different opinions, I wouldn't have posted in the first place otherwise. But either put a little bit of time into your response and tell me your reasoning or just shut up in the first place.

There's a reason spoonitnow started trolling with "This is standard"...

Oh one other thing, I wasn't being results-oriented by talking about winning the SNG... But I bet the first thing a lot of you thought happened when you first saw this hand was that I ran into a big hand and got busted.

Originally Posted by homerdash

But let's take courtiebee's responses for example. All they say is that this is the wrong play, WHY? "You shouldn't even be pushing Q2o here." WHY? I'm all for hearing different opinions, I wouldn't have posted in the first place otherwise. But either put a little bit of time into your response and tell me your reasoning or just shut up in the first place.

"I don't understand why I shouldn't be pushing Q2o in this spot either. Where are you getting your range from?" would have been better. There's a reason you can reply to my posts.

That's fine though, I'll "shut up in the first place" from now on. I definitely don't have to waste my time replying to threads like this, especially for people who don't appreciate it. Good luck.

Let me give you my thoughts on your reasoning below.

Originally Posted by homerdash

Fold - Folding seems like it would be the default play but notice the stack sizes. Folding here gives him the chip lead, and due to villain's tendencies, I am getting raised on the next hand in the BB. Provided I don't get a hand that falls into my 20% reraise range against him, I'll fold there as well. This will put me pretty far behind in blind stealing.

So you are willing to push any two cards but will only re-raise (or call a raise) with the top 20%? This doesn't make sense to me. If you are willing to push with such a large range and you know he will raise pre-flop on the next hand, which suggests his range to raise is extremely loose, why would you fold any hands that are out of the top 20%?

As for blind stealing, let's say you fold here. You now have 6,470 chips and he has 7,030. Now you post the ante and BB, he raises and you have 72 offsuit. You fold here as well and now have 5,820 to his 7,680. Am I missing something? Is my math wrong here? If not, why do you think this is so far behind?

Originally Posted by homerdash

Raise to 1200-2000 - This seems to be the popular choice so far, but there's a key problem with this move: suited connectors. Villain is very aggressive, so there is a good chance I'll get repopped with 56s, 79s, 68s, whatever. Also, if he thinks he has a decent amount of fold equity, he could shove K6 or Q9 or something like that right back in my face.

The point was that if you REALLY want to play these cards that most of us feel his calling range to your push wouldn't be that much smaller than his range to call a raise.

As for fold equity, let's say you raise it up to 1,800 here. That would leave you with 4,970 chips, the pot is now at 2,500, he has 6,030 chips and needs to put in another 1,200 to call.

Let's say he pushes. That bumps the pot up to 8,5,30 which gives you pot odds of 1.7 to 1 so you need to win this more than 37% of the time for it to be +ev which you can't get to, even with a random hand, so yes you would need to fold to a push.

Originally Posted by homerdash

Shoving is the only play that takes his option of raising away, and since he can't raise, the range of hands he'll be willing to go with here shrinks dramatically.

taipan, run it in SNGPT... I don't have that fine piece of software yet. I think it could very well be -EV in chip terms, but holding a moderate chiplead heads-up in SNGs is so crucial.

This is where I think your logic is flawed. You can have 1/3 of the chips and just double up once to reverse that.

Originally Posted by homerdash

One more thing, if he calls and I suck out, I win!

.....and that happens how often? Probably less than 35% of the time.