Am I a station?

Villain is a 32/15/2.16 TAG reg who is neither good nor bad. He's -78BB/100 over 650 hands but I can't for the life of me work out why he sucks so much at life. I've tended to avoid him and I'm as observant as a bat when I play, so that's all you're getting on him.

I was gonna c/f flop but then...


$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($24.50)
Hero ($65.60)
CO ($100.00)
BTN ($88.88)
SB ($40.95)
BB ($55.34)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
UTG calls $0.5, Hero raises to $2.25, 3 folds, BB raises to $7.5, UTG folds, Hero calls $5.25

Flop: ($16.25, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($16.25, 2 players)
BB bets $15.75, Hero calls $15.75

River: ($47.75, 2 players)
BB bets $32.09, Hero calls $32.09

absolutely not if you think he's a spewy bluffer.

dont even trip, im a station too .. if u play laggy enough, you kind of are forced to be a station cuz people try to bluff u too often, lol.

i dont think you are beating anything he is doing this with, i.e. AK/AQc, 99-AA. that seems to be most of his range to me, along with AKo or some random bluff, but i kind of doubt it.

What do you put him on preflop? Kinda weird that he didn't cbet. QQ+/TT normally auto-bet the flop. AcKc/AcQc makes a lot of sense. I probably fold the river, but I might just bet the flop after he checks.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

What do you put him on preflop?

TT-AA, AK, AQ and sometimes KQs and AJs

I'm not trying to be condescending here. I'm genuinely wondering...What are the reasons not to bet the flop? What do you put him on after he checks?

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

I'm not trying to be condescending here. I'm genuinely wondering...What are the reasons not to bet the flop? What do you put him on after he checks?

If we bet, we put ourselves in a sick commitment spot. Any money going in after we bet will mean we're either all in with negative expectation or fold having put something like 1/3 of the effective stack in.

IMO

Don't call here, but I bet flop.

Originally Posted by Ash256

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

I'm not trying to be condescending here. I'm genuinely wondering...What are the reasons not to bet the flop? What do you put him on after he checks?

If we bet, we put ourselves in a sick commitment spot. Any money going in after we bet will mean we're either all in with negative expectation or fold having put something like 1/3 of the effective stack in.

IMO

i agree that it is a not-so-pretty spot, but i think you have to bet the flop since after he checks he is much more likely to have AK/AQ than a higher pair, and we don't want him drawing for free. i wouldn't pot the flop, but i'd bet it.

Originally Posted by Ash256

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

I'm not trying to be condescending here. I'm genuinely wondering...What are the reasons not to bet the flop? What do you put him on after he checks?

If we bet, we put ourselves in a sick commitment spot. Any money going in after we bet will mean we're either all in with negative expectation or fold having put something like 1/3 of the effective stack in.

IMO

I think you are thinking about this badly.

How many streets of value does your hand have? What streets will they have the most value?

You give his preflop range. What could he be checking the flop with? What could he be betting the turn with (and looking further, what will his river action be with those hands he bets the turn with? [on blank rivers])?

Originally Posted by Massimo

Originally Posted by Ash256

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

I'm not trying to be condescending here. I'm genuinely wondering...What are the reasons not to bet the flop? What do you put him on after he checks?

If we bet, we put ourselves in a sick commitment spot. Any money going in after we bet will mean we're either all in with negative expectation or fold having put something like 1/3 of the effective stack in.

IMO

I think you are thinking about this badly.

How many streets of value does your hand have? What streets will they have the most value?

You give his preflop range. What could he be checking the flop with? What could he be betting the turn with (and looking further, what will his river action be with those hands he bets the turn with? [on blank rivers])?

hands he checks are AA, AK and AQ here, and possibly KK. i dont think he wont cbet with QQ.

Originally Posted by will641

hands he checks are AA, AK and AQ here, and possibly KK. i dont think he wont cbet with QQ.

why would AA/KK check the flop?

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by will641

hands he checks are AA, AK and AQ here, and possibly KK. i dont think he wont cbet with QQ.

why would AA/KK check the flop?

im not saying he did, but im saying these are hands he could be checking with. since he was the pf aggressor it is more likely he checks KK/AA then QQ-TT. make sense?

Originally Posted by will641

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by will641

hands he checks are AA, AK and AQ here, and possibly KK. i dont think he wont cbet with QQ.

why would AA/KK check the flop?

im not saying he did, but im saying these are hands he could be checking with. since he was the pf aggressor it is more likely he checks KK/AA then QQ-TT. make sense?

you should assign your villains to ranges based, for the most part, on what they are most likely to have. you figure out what they are most likely to have through your reads and through common betting patterns. yes, you can say that he could have checked AA/KK, but you could also say that he could have 72o here also. it really doesn't matter what he could have. all that really matters is what he is most likely to have. missed overcards, imo, are way the most likely hand for villain after checking the flop since overpairs just about always bet this flop in this spot. yes, there is a small chance that he has AA/KK here, but we must act according to what is most likely.

i think b/f flop is good

Originally Posted by Massimo

Originally Posted by Ash256

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

I'm not trying to be condescending here. I'm genuinely wondering...What are the reasons not to bet the flop? What do you put him on after he checks?

If we bet, we put ourselves in a sick commitment spot. Any money going in after we bet will mean we're either all in with negative expectation or fold having put something like 1/3 of the effective stack in.

IMO

I think you are thinking about this badly.

How many streets of value does your hand have? What streets will they have the most value?

You give his preflop range. What could he be checking the flop with? What could he be betting the turn with (and looking further, what will his river action be with those hands he bets the turn with? [on blank rivers])?

Please respond to my answer dude.


- My hand has 1 street of value most likely, with a possibility of marginal 2 streets of value if I'm betting, but I have 2 streets of value if he's bluffing. IMO they have the most value on the turn + riv because my range will probably look weaker if I check the flop therefore he'll have a wider (therefore weaker because the top of his range is STRONG) range to put money in the pot with.

- I think he'd check flop with AK, AQ a lot of the time and TT a small amount of the time - I can't think of a single reason/explanation for checking this flop w/ QQ-AA, although I won't 100% rule it out - give it 8% or so.

- If the flop is checked through he'll probably bet turn w/ his entire range; betting pairs for value and overs (in his words) "because I've missed so I have to bluff".

- On a blank river he'll bet big pairs for value. With overs, if he was good he'd check them because I, a decent player would probably call him with 22 here (I don't think he can multilevel), but, the fact is, he's a big loser over a small sample size despite reasonable pre stats and very fishy games. So given that, we can assume that he'll make the wrong play a good % of the time here.

Despite what you think, I'm pretty sure villain shows up with KK/AA quite a lot in this spot. I think he was trying to "trap" you on the flop and missed his c/r. I also don't think this type of villain bluffs off his whole stack like this...

I think he had AK or close to it. If he had AA or KK then he was getting cute on the flop, and I don't see a good reason for him to get tricksy there, and he sounds like a solid player. He does have reason to get tricksy after you checked with him, so it makes sense that he was bluffing at that point after missing the flop.

I betcha he had AK of clubs, and his post flop bet was a semi-bluff that he ended up catching on you because you didn't bet the flop :P


But what do I know.
<----- NOOB

Originally Posted by BigLRIP

Despite what you think, I'm pretty sure villain shows up with KK/AA quite a lot in this spot.

so i guess you have seen a good number of people check their AA/KK on flops like this one after 3betting preflop? if that's your experience then alright. i know i haven't seen that very often at all.

Blah. I posted a whole long thing and just realized I misread the hand. I have no comment of interest, sorry.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by BigLRIP

Despite what you think, I'm pretty sure villain shows up with KK/AA quite a lot in this spot.

so i guess you have seen a good number of people check their AA/KK on flops like this one after 3betting preflop? if that's your experience then alright. i know i haven't seen that very often at all.

a missed c/r is definitly in his range, but i do agree that AK/AQ make up a larger part of it.

I'm eagerly awaiting results, Ash.

RESULTS:

A J-ball popped off on the river and I instacalled and won vs. his AQ no club. I then wondered what I would've done had a blank peeled..